Global Average Temperature Change for the Past 11,300 Years (Holocene)(Science, 8 March 2013: Vol.
Not exact matches
We have much better — and more conclusive — evidence
for climate
change from more boring sources like
global temperature averages, or the extent of
global sea ice, or thousands of years» worth of C02 levels stored frozen in ice cores.
January's mark of 1.4 °C, put the
global average temperature change from early industrial levels
for the first three months of 2016 at 1.48 °C.
The
average global temperature change for the first three months of 2016 was 1.48 °C, essentially equaling the 1.5 °C warming threshold agreed to by COP 21 negotiators in Paris last December.
Results of a new study by researchers at the Northeast Climate Science Center (NECSC) at the University of Massachusetts Amherst suggest that
temperatures across the northeastern United States will increase much faster than the
global average, so that the 2 - degrees Celsius warming target adopted in the recent Paris Agreement on climate
change will be reached about 20 years earlier
for this part of the U.S. compared to the world as a whole.
As
for this research team's Holy Grail — predicting the
change in
average global temperature — it begins to look more and more like an unreachable, even meaningless, goal.
But the U.K. Met Office (national weather service), the U.S.'s National Center
for Atmospheric Research and other partners around the globe aim to
change that in the future by developing regular assessments — much like present evaluations of
global average temperatures along with building from the U.K. flooding risk modeling efforts — to determine how much a given season's extreme weather could be attributed to human influence.
This is defined as the
change in
average global surface
temperature for a given amount of carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere.
Temperature changes relative to the corresponding
average for 1901 - 1950 (°C) from decade to decade from 1906 to 2005 over the Earth's continents, as well as the entire globe,
global land area and the
global ocean (lower graphs).
For the world to reach the necessary ambition to achieve our climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, which would keep
average global temperature rises well below 2 °C and even 1.5 °C, the EU, led by the European Commission, must start supporting efforts to tackle vested interests within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC).
The graphic displays monthly
global temperature data from the U.K. Met Office and charts how each month compares to the
average for the same period from 1850 - 1900, the same baselines used in the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change.
[9]
Temperature changes Global mean surface temperature difference from the average for 1880 &m
Temperature changes Global mean surface
temperature difference from the average for 1880 &m
temperature difference from the
average for 1880 — 2009.
For example, the
global temperature change when we recovered from the last ice age
averaged only about 0.1 C per century (and descent into an ice age tended to be even slower)... whereas we are now looking at
changes greater than that happening in one decade.
For example, reflecting sunlight would likely reduce the Earth's
average temperature but could also
change global circulation with potentially serious consequences such as
changing storm tracks and precipitation patterns throughout the world.
This was one of the motivations
for our study out this week in Nature Climate
Change (England et al., 2014) With the
global -
average surface air
temperature (SAT) more - or-less steady since 2001, scientists have been seeking to explain the climate mechanics of the slowdown in warming seen in the observations during 2001 - 2013.
The most recent report concluded both, that
global temperatures are rising, that this is caused largely by human activities and, in addition, that
for increases in
global average temperature, there are projected to be major
changes in ecosystem structure and function with predominantly negative consequences
for biodiversity and ecosystems, e.g. water and food supply.
Global average surface
temperatures are not expected to
change significantly although
temperatures at higher latitudes may be expected to decrease to a modest extent because of a reduction in the efficiency of meridional heat transport (offsetting the additional warming anticipated
for this environment caused by the build - up of greenhouse gases).
For example, episodic deviations in cloud and snow cover, dust and smoke, etc, will have some radiative effect that could cause some
global average temperature change.
Nonetheless, there is a tendency
for similar equilibrium climate sensitivity ECS, especially using a Charney ECS defined as equilibrium
global time
average surface
temperature change per unit tropopause - level forcing with stratospheric adjustment,
for different types of forcings (CO2, CH4, solar) if the forcings are not too idiosyncratic.
I regularly speak to public audiences about climate
change (see http://www.andrewgunther.com/climate-
change/#talks
for details), and use the NASA / GISS dataset to discuss
global average temperature of the atmosphere.
Starting from an old equilbrium, a
change in radiative forcing results in a radiative imbalance, which results in energy accumulation or depletion, which causes a
temperature response that approahes equilibrium when the remaining imbalance approaches zero — thus the equilibrium climatic response, in the
global - time
average (
for a time period long enough to characterize the climatic state, including externally imposed cycles (day, year) and internal variability), causes an opposite
change in radiative fluxes (via Planck function)(plus convective fluxes, etc, where they occur) equal in magnitude to the sum of the (externally) imposed forcing plus any «forcings» caused by non-Planck feedbacks (in particular, climate - dependent
changes in optical properties, + etc.).)
(PS we are considering the climate sensitivity to be in terms of
changes in
global - time
average surface
temperature per unit
global - time
average radiative forcing, though one could also define other sensitivities
for other measures of climate).
Recognizes that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and that most of the observed increase in
global average temperatures since the mid twentieth century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel
for Climate
Change in its Fourth Assessment Report;
For example, if this contribution were to grow linearly with global average temperature change, the upper ranges of sea level rise for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM - 3 would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level ri
For example, if this contribution were to grow linearly with
global average temperature change, the upper ranges of sea level rise
for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM - 3 would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level ri
for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM - 3 would increase by 0.1 m to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound
for sea level ri
for sea level rise.
For most recent sampling see: New Peer - Reviewed Study finds «Solar
changes significantly alter climate» (11-3-07)(LINK) & «New Peer - Reviewed Study Halves the
Global Average Surface
Temperature Trend 1980 — 2002» (LINK) & New Study finds Medieval Warm Period «0.3 C Warmer than 20th Century» (LINK)
For a more comprehensive sampling of peer - reviewed studies earlier in 2007 see «New Peer - Reviewed Scientific Studies Chill
Global Warming Fears» LINK]
«Drawdown» refers to the point at which greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere begin to decline on a yearly basis, and is the goal
for reversing climate
change and reducing
global average temperatures.
Scientists at the Goddard Institute
for Space Studies of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) gather data from a
global network of some 800 climate - monitoring stations to measure
changes in the earth's
average temperature.
Estimates of CO2 level and
average global temperature trajectory (no sustained
temperature change)
for the last 500 million years is evidence CO2 has no effect on climate.
Figure 6: Easterbrook's two
global temperature projections A (green) and B (blue) vs. the IPCC TAR simple model projection tuned to seven
global climate models
for emissions scenario A2 (the closest scenario to reality thus far)(red) and observed
global surface
temperature change (the
average of NASA GISS, NOAA, and HadCRUT4)(black) over the period 2000 through 2011.
And even if the current 18 - year trend were to end, it would still take nearly 25 years
for average global temperature figures to reflect the
change, said Michaels, who has a Ph.D. in ecological climatology and spent three decades as a research professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia.
But that's on top of the fact that you can't even find harm
for the level of warming we currently have or much link between
global average temperature and climate
change, much less adverse climate
change.
Figure 8 shows the projected
change in
global average surface
temperature for the various SRES.
*** The table below shows the
global average temperature anomalies
for the last 20 years (2014 only includes data from Jan to Oct, so may
change).
«Many other important impacts of climate
change are difficult to quantify
for a given
change in
global average temperature, in part because
temperature is not the only driver of
change for some impacts; multiple environmental and other human factors come into play.»
Model projections
for precipitation
changes are less certain than those
for temperature.12, 2 Under a higher emissions scenario (A2),
global climate models (GCMs) project
average winter and spring precipitation by late this century (2071 - 2099) to increase 10 % to 20 % relative to 1971 - 2000, while
changes in summer and fall are not expected to be larger than natural variations.
A simple proof that CO2 has no effect on
average global temperature, and identification of what has driven climate
change for at least the last 400 years is at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com
For the world to reach the necessary ambition to achieve our climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, which would keep
average global temperature rises well below 2 °C and even 1.5 °C, the EU, led by the European Commission, must start supporting efforts to tackle vested interests within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC).
For paleo estimates, many different proxies are used to estimate the
change in
global average temperature and the
change in external forcing, from which one can estimate the ECS.
These facts were enough
for an NAS panel, including Christy, to publish a report Reconciling Observations of
Global Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 y
Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in
temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 y
temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface
temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than
average for the past 100 years»
Sort of like what's going with the
global average temperature — no
change —
for 17 years and counting.
This would mean that the 0.3 °C
global average temperature rise which has been predicted
for the next decade by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change may not happen, according to the paper published in the scientific journal Nature.»
The problem is that we are looking
for the
average of the actual
global temperature changes for Earth where some areas warm more rapidly than others and some areas cool.
Internal variability can only account
for ~ 0.3 °C
change in
average global surface air
temperature at most over periods of several decades, and scientific studies have consistently shown that it can not account
for more than a small fraction of the
global warming over the past century.
There are plenty, but
for a conservative example see IPCC Synthesis Report 2007 Table 5.1 which says to stay within 2 - 2.4 degrees
global average temperature increase above pre-industrial (Copenhagen upper «low risk» target) and 425 - 490ppm CO2 - equivalent concentration at stabilisation, the required
change in
global CO2 emissions in 2050 (percent of 2000 emissions) is decline between 85 to 50 percent.
-LSB-...] The
global mean
temperature to end - July was 0.28 degrees Celsius above the 1961 - 1990
average, the UK - based MetOffice Hadley Centre
for climate
change research said on Wednesday.
Major fossil fuel companies have today released a Joint Collaborative Declaration under the Oil & Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI) recognising the need to limit
global average temperature rise to 2 ⁰ C. Launched in Paris this morning, they are calling
for an «effective climate
change agreement at COP21».
The Paris Agreement was a major step forward
for international cooperation on tackling climate
change; not only did Parties agree to the ambitious mitigation goal of limiting
average global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, but they also agreed to a wide array of processes and tools aimed at achieving this goal.
Copernicus Climate
Change Service (C3S), operated by the European Centre
for Medium - range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), calculated the
global average August
temperature was nearly two - tenths of a degree Celsius higher than the previous August
temperature records set in 2015, in their dataset dating to 1979.
I would probably generally state it as «human CO2 activity has a measurable warming impact on
global average temperature that can be readily discerned from the background of natural climate
change and other human effects that may cause cooling, and this warming impact will be, in general, neutral in impact
for humanity and the biosphere».
The impact of these
changes in cloud cover can account
for the variations in HadCRUT4
global average temperature anomalies and the divergence between land and sea
temperatures.