Sentences with phrase «global climate models show»

Kevin's snow scenario is exactly what the global climate models show: a shorter snow season everywhere, but increases in maximum snow water equivalent in the northern continental areas (with decreases in maximum snow water equivalent in the more southerly regions, where rain - to - snow ratios increase).

«Northwest Atlantic Ocean may get warmer, sooner: High resolution global climate model shows much faster warming and changing ocean circulation.»

California is proceeding down this absurd emissions reduction path while the «science» supposedly supporting climate alarmism claims is crumbling with global climate models shown to be flawed and failed by climate scientist testimony before Congress and UN IPCC acknowledgements of the undeniable truth that it is impossible to create credible global climate models which, in fact, has been the case for the last 25 years.

Using a global climate model they show that the adjusted troposphere and stratosphere radiative forcing is consistent with the stratospheric adjusted forcing for more uniform forcings such as doubling CO2 and solar constant changes.

Not exact matches

The models show that climate change is a less influential driver of global food security than income, population and productivity — but it could still pose a significant risk to the nutrition levels of people living in the world's poorest regions, Baldos said.

Other studies have resorted to modeling to understand the effects of contrails, which have shown that they can have an appreciable impact on global climate, despite their transient nature.

The researchers found climate models that show a low global temperature response to carbon dioxide do not include enough of this lower - level water vapour process.

The researchers showed that the climate change models used by the IPCC underestimate Africa's emissions, which could account for 20 - 55 % of global anthropogenic emissions of gaseous and particulate pollutants by 2030.

Climate models show the absence of a global atmospheric circulation pattern which bolsters high ocean temperatures key to coral bleaching

Scientists at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory showed that global climate models are not accurately depicting the true depth and strength of tropical clouds that have a strong hold on the general circulation of atmospheric heat and the global water balance.

The climate projections show on this map are based on Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 (van Vuuren et al., 2012) experiments run by global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) exercise (Taylor et al., 2012).

Rather, their analysis shows that if you compare the LGM land cooling with the model land cooling, then the model that fits the land best has much higher GLOBAL climate sensitivity than you get for best fit if you use ocean data.

In order to understand the potential importance of the effect, let's look at what it could do to our understanding of climate: 1) It will have zero effect on the global climate models, because a) the constraints on these models are derived from other sources b) the effect is known and there are methods for dealing the errors they introduce c) the effect they introduce is local, not global, so they can not be responsible for the signal / trend we see, but would at most introduce noise into that signal 2) It will not alter the conclusion that the climate is changing or even the degree to which it is changing because of c) above and because that conclusion is supported by multiple additional lines of evidence, all of which are consistent with the trends shown in the land stations.

They show this with an elegant experiment, in which they «force» their global climate model to follow the observed history of sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific.

Although the Met Office Hadley Center model projects extreme drying and warming in the Amazon due to ongoing climate change, and there may even be a commitment to long - term decline of part of the Amazon forest even at just 2 degrees global warming above pre-industrial, other climate models show less of a drying or even none at all.

This has been a common problem with global climate models but the recent generation of models clearly shows improvement.

No climate model has ever shown a year - on - year increase in temperatures because of the currently expected amount of global warming.

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureClimate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

Even without fully incorporating such climate feedback, models show that continued reliance on fossil fuels could raise the global temperature by up to 7 degrees Celsius (over 12 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of this century.

Though we don't necessarily attribute this to global warming, it is interesting to note that none of the climate models used for the 2007 International Panel on Climate Change report showed a decrease of this magclimate models used for the 2007 International Panel on Climate Change report showed a decrease of this magClimate Change report showed a decrease of this magnitude.

Using (i) a state - of - the - art global climate model and (ii) a low - order energy balance model, we show that the global climate feedback is fundamentally linked to the geographic pattern of regional climate feedbacks and the geographic pattern of surface warming at any given time.

Furthermore, ocean acidification is happening even more quickly in the Arctic, as shown in Stenacher et al. (2009, April), «Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle - climate model,» http://www.biogeosciences.net/6/515/2009/bg-6-515-2009.pdf (open access):

1) it is the first time a global model that, while more expensive than conventional GCMs, is affordable for climate projection has been shown to contain the essential mechanism known to deliver most of the summertime mid-continent US rainfall, and

This is, I think, the first and only global climate model in the world that has been shown to produce these characteristic mesoscale events.

Other climate models run for standard global warming scenarios only rarely show this level of cooling.

Yadvinder Malhi, an ecologist at Oxford specializing in the Amazon, said that nearly all climate models simulating the impacts of global warming show the area staying wet even as other parts of the vast basin get drier.

• If you're a skeptic, and you welcome these results, please remember that these are the same climate models you bash when they show global temperatures steadily rising during the next century.

Here's a link to the study, «Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity,» and click here for maps showing the projected shift in fire patterns and where the 16 models agree and disagree.

Member of the team Alena Kimbrough says, «We've shown ENSO is an important part of the climate system that has influenced global temperatures and rainfall over the past millennium... Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century - scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.»

The researchers used a climate - vegetation model that showed (like several similar studies) a clear increase in Amazonian drought following a global average temperature rise — leading to a large - scale die - back of rainforest, switching to grassland and savanna climate suitability.

Have read about climate modelling out of the U.K. and Russia that shows Earth has actually entered a global cooling period (as of 2007) of perhaps a century or more... plausibly leading us into another mini-ice-age.

A paper they published in 2008 used a very simple climate model to make this argument, but subsequent research showed that their model was actually too simple, and failed to accurately represent how the global climate operates (green in the first graphic).

Here's an illustration: the Figure below shows what happens when the average ± 4 Wm - 2 long - wave cloud forcing error of CMIP5 climate models [1], is propagated through a couple of Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) global air temperature projeclimate models [1], is propagated through a couple of Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) global air temperature projeClimate System Model 4 (CCSM4) global air temperature projections.

Little was agreed to curb greenhouse gas emissions and the latest modelling, carried out by the Climate Action Tracker consortium shows global averages temperatures are still set to rise by at least 3 °C [continue reading...]

My last viewgraph shows global maps of temperature anomalies for a particular month, July, for several different years between 1986 and 2029, as computed with out global climate model for the intermediate trace gas scenario B.... In any given month [in the 1980s], there is almost as much area that is cooled than normal as there is area warmer than normal.

In most models that show the world reducing emissions enough to hit the 2 °C climate target, «solar energy emerges only as a minor mitigation option» — around 5 to 17 percent of global electricity supply in one representative study used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate target, «solar energy emerges only as a minor mitigation option» — around 5 to 17 percent of global electricity supply in one representative study used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change (IPCC).

As shown in Figure 2, the IPCC FAR ran simulations using models with climate sensitivities (the total amount of global surface warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening feedbacks) correspoding to 1.5 °C (low), 2.5 °C (best), and 4.5 °C (high).

QUESTION: If this hypothetical +0.03 C per decade trend line for the seven hottest peak years on record between 1998 and 2028 stayed within the CMIP5 min - max boundary line, as shown on the above graphic, could climate scientists justifiably claim in the year 2028 that «global warming» a.k.a. «climate change» had occurred on schedule according to AR5's climate model predictions?

This assumption is based on climate model results that gave high climate sensitivity for doubling of CO2 by smoothing out all the oscillation in GMST before the 1970s and leaving untouched the warming phase of the oscillation since then and calling it man - made global warming as shown below.

Thermometer shows the global - mean temperature increase above pre-industrial by 2100, with an uncertainty range originating from carbon - cycle and climate modelling.

Koutsoyiannis (2011) showed that «an ensemble of climate model projections» of (realistic) global climate models are statistically likely to be within this climatic null hypothesis.

Direct air capture is another way to get to negative emissions, something many climate models show we'll need to keep global warming below 2 °C.

Scientists at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory showed that global climate models are not accurately depicting the...

Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations.We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model.

UNDP's Rapport mondial sur le développement humain 2006 (PDF)-- which focuses on the global water crisis, is just one example of a model - based climate - impact study that shows net decreasing North - African food production as a result of continued global climate change.

However, type 4 downscaling, while providing the illusion of higher skill because of the high spatial resolution climate fields, has never shown skill at prediction beyond what is already there in the parent global model.

My bottom line is that while the global climate models, when run with added CO2 and other greenhouse gases, show that this is a warming effect, they are inadequate tools to assess the consequences of these human climate forcings on the regional and local scale.

In any case, as the 2013 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report showed, the observed global surface warming remains within the range of climate model projections.

The models, in important ways that were once claimed to be proof of ``... a discernible human influence on global climate», are now shown to be FUBAR.

More than a decade ago I published a peer - reviewed paper that showed the UK's Hadley Centre general circulation model (GCM) could not model climate and only obtained agreement between past average global temperature and the model's indications of average global temperature by forcing the agreement with an input of assumed anthropogenic aerosol cooling.