Figure half - way down the web page: «
Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major)-- 12 - month running sums.
Since daily ACE represents a 4 - times daily sum of wind speed squared, an «average» September 21st could see one of the following (among other combos): One TC at 125 knots Two TCs at 90 knots Three TCs at 70 knots or Six TCs at 50 knots Current TCs = 0 September 15:
Global Hurricane Frequency [storms with maximum intensity greater than 64 knots] has dramatically collapsed during the past 2 - 3 years.
Global hurricane frequency versus global ocean temperatures - Top image from FSU ACE, bottom image from GISS ocean data plotted by WUWT - click for larger image
Not exact matches
For example, when examining
hurricanes and typhoons, the lack of a high - quality, long - term historical record, uncertainty regarding the impact of climate change on storm
frequency and inability to accurately simulate these storms in most
global climate models raises significant challenges when attributing assessing the impact of climate change on any single storm.
On the other hand, as Emanuel emphasizes, there is no evidence that the
global frequency of
hurricanes is rising.
The 8 inches of sea level rise produced by
global warming so far has worsened the tolls of storm surges, including those caused by
Hurricane Sandy, and subjected coastal cities to high tide flooding of unprecedented
frequency.
He pointed to
hurricanes, an icon for Mr. Gore, who highlights the devastation of
Hurricane Katrina and cites research suggesting that
global warming will cause both storm
frequency and deadliness to rise.
Taking a view that
frequency and strength of
hurricanes are influenced by GHG emissions and
global warming may not seem to be in the best short term interest or mission of the DOC.
We appreciate your interest in our recent paper on Atlantic
hurricane frequency and
global warming.
Interesting title: «Study says
global warming not worsening
hurricanes ``, when the study only seems to suggest that the
frequency of Atlantic
hurricanes isn't being heightened by warming, while intensity remains a different story.
Dr. Christopher Landsea — past chairman of the American Meteorological Society's Committee on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones — says «there are no known scientific studies that show a conclusive physical link between
global warming and observed
hurricane frequency and intensity.»
There are some physics - based theories regarding the nature of climate change yes, but the ONLY way to test them is on the basis of the sort of evidence that climate scientists have been collecting for many years now, on, for example,
global temperatures, ocean temperatures, sea level,
frequency of drought,
hurricanes, rainstorms, etc..
Sooner or later the increased severity of
hurricanes (which are already twice a strong due to higher SST), and increased
frequency and severity of El Nino, will have to be called what they are: manifestations of
global warming.
Soundbite version: «
Global warming is expected to increase sea surface temperatures, create a thicker and warmer ocean surface layer, and increase the moisture in the atmosphere over the oceans — all conditions that should lead to a general increase in
hurricane intensity and maybe
frequency.»
When discussing the influence of anthropogenic
global warming on
hurricane or tropical cyclone (TC)
frequency and intensity (see e.g. here, here, and here), it is important to examine observed past trends.
4:38 p.m. Updated I read Mark Fischetti's piece on
global warming and
hurricanes in Scientific American just now, which points to a recent PNAS study finding «a statistically significant trend in the
frequency of large surge events» from tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.
It depends on the signal - to - noise ratio, so for
global temperature in recent decades 20 years has been about enough, for CO2 concentration 4 years is more than enough while for
hurricane frequency 50 years is probably too short.
We find no anthropogenic signal in annual
global tropical cyclone or
hurricane frequencies.
[UPDATE, 8/13/09: Fresh analysis shows, once again, the challenges involved in discerning if the changes in
hurricane frequency and characteristics in recent years are anomalous and linked to human - caused
global warming.]
Taking a view that
frequency and strength of
hurricanes are influenced by GHG emissions and
global warming may not seem to be in the best short term interest or mission of the DOC.
While there's evidence that increasing greenhouse heating of the planet is exacerbating hot spells and extreme downpours, and may be related to
hurricane intensity (but not
frequency), a combination of imprecise records and deep complexity in the mix of forces that generate killer tornadoes has clouded any link to
global warming.
The
frequency of more intense
hurricanes, possibly enhanced by
global warming may have increased as well.
«The IPCC hierarchy had its mind made up years ago to make every attempt possible to link rising levels of CO2 with increases in
global hurricane intensity and
frequency... Input from skeptics or any hypothesis or data that did not link rises in CO2 to increases in tropical cyclone activity was to be avoided, suppressed, or rejected.»
«Coming off one of the most devastating
hurricane seasons in recent memory, many are quick to blame the strength and
frequency of these storms on
global warming.
Global tropical cyclone activity is near historic lows, the
frequency of major U.S.
hurricanes has declined, and big tornados have dramatically declined since the 1970s.
Similarly more intense
hurricanes have been linked to climate change although it is still uncertain whether
global warming will increase
hurricane frequency.
The latest IPCC Assessment Report concludes that we don't know enough to determine if events like
hurricanes, tornados, and hailstorms will increase or decrease in
frequency due to
Global Warming.
Like many other conference speakers and attendees, Secretary - General Ban cited the recent droughts, floods, and Tropical Storm Sandy as proof of the dire consequences of man - made
global warming, even though many studies and scientists (including scientists who usually fall into the climate alarmist category) have stated that there is no evidence to support claims that «extreme weather» has been increasing in
frequency and / or magnitude in recent years, or that extreme events (
hurricanes, droughts, heat waves, etc.) have anything to do with increased CO2 levels.
(07/08/2013) Warmer ocean temperatures will increase the
frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, typhoons and
hurricanes in «most locations» this century, concludes a new study based on simulations using six
global climate models.
The IPCC notes in its most recent scientific assessment that there are «[n] o robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms,
hurricanes and major
hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin,» and that there are «no significant observed trends in
global tropical cyclone
frequency.»
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in its most recent scientific assessment that «[n] o robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms,
hurricanes, and major
hurricanes... have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin,» and that there are «no significant observed trends in
global tropical cyclone
frequency.»
As noted previously on this blog, when
hurricane damages are adjusted («normalized») to account for changes in population, per capita income, and the consumer price index, there is no long - term trend such as might indicate an increase in
hurricane frequency or power related to
global climate change.
We have identified considerable interannual variability in the
frequency of
global hurricane landfalls; but within the resolution of the available data, our evidence does not support the presence of significant long - period
global or individual basin linear trends for minor, major, or total
hurricanes within the period (s) covered by the available quality data.
Many scientists believe hotter and cooler oceans could lead to dramatic shifts in not just
global temperature levels but also
hurricane frequency.
It will also be interesting to see plaintiffs explain this graph of accumulated cyclone energy in the light of their theory that man - made
global warming is increasing
hurricane strengths and
frequencies (ACE is a sort of integration of
hurricane and tropical storm strengths over time).
There are no known scientific studies that show a conclusive physical link between
global warming and
hurricane frequency and intensity.
And there is some even more compelling evidence that neither
hurricane frequency nor intensity have increased with
global warming.
Correlating an increase in
hurricane intensity and / or
frequency to
global warming «proves» nothing other than a nebulous statistical relationship, if even that.
Whether warming worsens storms [still very difficult to determine whether
global warming will increase the overall
frequency of intense storms (partly because these are difficult to resolve in current - generation climate models), but clear evidence has emerged of the increase in most intense category 4 - 5
hurricanes / cyclones / typhoons]
Aerosols in the lower atmosphere have reduced
global warming and the
frequency of intense
hurricanes by reflecting a small fraction of sunlight back to space.
Retrospective decadal predictions with DePreSys show improvements over uninitialised forecasts, including
global average temperature and Atlantic
hurricane frequency.
Global warming may increase the
frequency of intense
hurricanes in the western Atlantic region during the 21st century.
Several comments and replies (6 - 10) have been published regarding the new results, but one key question remains: Are the
global tropical cyclone databases sufficiently reliable to ascertain long - term trends in tropical cyclone intensity, particularly in the
frequency of extreme tropical cyclones (categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir - Simpson
Hurricane Scale)?
Furthermore, we
global models also consistently show an increase in el - nino
frequency, which is known to cause a major decline at least in major
hurricanes making landfall in the U.S., and probably in major Atlantic
hurricanes in general.
After in fact stating the rising trend in
Hurricane frequency in the Indian ocean Hoarau asks at the end of the article if there is a connection between
global warming and the growing number of tropical cyclones in various ocean basins.
3) The apparent increase in
global average tropical SSTs are apparently resulting in increasing
frequencies of more intense
hurricanes.
The new study challenges research suggesting that
global warming could be contributing to an increase in the
frequency and the intensity of Atlantic
hurricanes.