Global population levels would need to drop under 2 or 3 billion.
I am very skeptical that on
a global population level, humans will bother to do anything other than lip service when it comes to addressing climate change and the changes to our lifestyle required to significantly reduce our emissions, until it is far too late.
Whether one assumes a «low fertility» case with
global population leveling off by 2100 at around 9 billion (CAGR of 0.3 % / year) or a «high fertility» case with population growing to 12 billion (CAGR of 0.6 % / year) does not really matter that much.
Not exact matches
Reseachers at the
global professional services firm said they based their conclusions on a number of «key» economic and demographic factors — from average income
levels and
population to the number of ski resorts per capita,
level of snow coverage and recent «form» at the Winter Olympics.
Add to this the fact that
global pension
levels are also sharply on the rise, with people living longer and
population growth — and therefore workforce growth — slowing in many advanced economies.
So there are lots of those long - term factors, demographics, aging
population,
global competition that mean that long - term interest rates may not rise at the same
level, but one can't help but feel that we have seen six, seven years and in some cases, 10 years now post
global financial crisis of near - zero interest rates and it's just, I suspect, there are a lot of market practitioners have gotten used to that idea and haven't really gotten their heads around the fact that we are still seeing Fed governors suggesting we have got one more rate increase this year and potentially two or three coming out next year.
In the foreword to the report Dr Ahmed Shaheed, United Nations Special Rapporteur for Freedom of Religion or Belief said: «Despite
global commitments to promote and to protect freedom of religion or belief, the scale of violations remains enormous, with almost 80 per cent of the world's
population living in countries with «high» or «very high»
levels of restrictions and / or hostilities towards certain beliefs.»
The surge is stark, given that in 2011 only half of the
global population (52 %) lived in such countries, while the worldwide
level of government restrictions on religion remained largely the same between the two years.
At the same time, with
global population expected to grow to 9 billion people by 2050, the FAO also reports
global food production must be 70 percent greater than today's
level.
With the
global population projected to rise to 9 billion in 2050 and resources becoming increasingly strained, there is a growing realization that raising production
levels alone will not solve the problems facing the food industry.
Leaders must also take a long - term approach to the management of oil wealth to ensure the region can meet the challenges of food and water shortages, rising
population levels and
global warming.
Recent work by Paul Farmer and others challenges bioethics to address urgent questions of
global health equity not only on the
level of method but in the form of strategic partnerships with the most vulnerable
populations.
Sustaining fresh water and energy resources; mitigating the effects of natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, severe weather, landslides, coastal erosion, and solar flares; and dealing with the consequences of
global warming and sea -
level rise are issues that affect all
populations, regardless of gender, ethnicity, or cultural traditions.
«Our findings will inform the development of
global population -
level interventions to reduce stroke, and how such programs may be tailored to individual regions,» said Yusuf, a professor of medicine of McMaster's Michael G. DeGroote School of Medicine and director of the PHRI.
The models show that climate change is a less influential driver of
global food security than income,
population and productivity — but it could still pose a significant risk to the nutrition
levels of people living in the world's poorest regions, Baldos said.
Over the past 200,000 years, replacement -
level fertility rates have ranged from 2.1 to 3.0 children per couple, he said, noting that
global population remained remarkably stable until the beginning of the 19th century, when decreased mortality in newborns resulted in fertility rates exceeding replacement
levels.
Over the past century, chemical fertilisers have been used to boost nitrogen
levels and crop yields, helping
global food supply keep pace with
population growth.
Already at 7 billion, the
global population is expected to increase by 2 billion to 3 billion in the next 40 years before
leveling off.
For example, a large body of research has found switching to an entirely vegetarian diet would make a huge difference on the carbon footprint of our food system — the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security research program reports that if the
global population were to reduce or cut its meat intake, it would halve the cost of mitigation actions needed to stabilize carbon dioxide
levels to 450 parts per million by midcentury — but for many people that is not in the cards.
However, coastal cities worldwide have experienced enormous growth in
population and infrastructure over the past couple of centuries — and a
global mean sea
level rise of 10 to 20 feet could be catastrophic to the hundreds of millions of people living in these coastal zones.
The best way to do that was placing monitoring equipment far from
population centers, where CO2 streaming from power plants, automobiles and other infrastructure could skew attempts to determine the average
global level of CO2.
The new numbers will be used in models created by economists, environmentalists, and governments who use
population estimates to predict pollution and
global warming
levels; prepare for epidemics; determine road, school, and other infrastructure requirements; and forecast worldwide economic trends.
The anticipated boost in fertility rates is not large enough to alter projections that the
global population will
level off by midcentury, says study coauthor Hans - Peter Kohler, a sociologist at the University of Pennsylvania.
To have any hope of slowing the pace and holding down the upper
level temperatures that
global warming will bring over this century, the human
population of the world will need to make large reductions of the additional billions of tons of greenhouse gases they are projected to be pumping into the atmosphere, each year.
Nonetheless, with rising sea
level and environmental refugeeism compounding the increased demand on water, food, and land of a growing
population (albeit one likely to
level out mid 21st century), the combined impacts of climate change and
global population increase could potentially yield a world that doesn't look that different from the one portrayed in the movie — indeed, as Jim Hansen puts it, «a different planet» — by century's end.
Howarth also noted that some satellite data says the
global methane increases have come from the U.S., where cattle
population has dropped and rice production has mostly
leveled off.
By comparison, scenarios for fossil fuel emissions for the 21st century range from about 600 billion tons (if we can keep total
global emissions at current
levels) to over 2500 billion tons if the world increases its reliance on combustion of coal as economic growth and
population increase dramatically.
Through her research, Dr. Gallagher addresses questions about the mechanisms governing how
global climate change affects plant - pollinator interactions and the extent to which changes in the
levels of pollination influence the ecology and evolution of plant
populations.
The application of whole - genome sequencing has moved us on from sequencing single genomes to defining unravelling
population structures in different niches, and at the - species, - serotype or even - genus
level, and in local, national and
global settings.
With humanity's ecological footprint of 2.7
global hectares (gha) per person means to say that to sustain the current
population on Earth of 7 billion people would take 18.9 billion gha (2.7 gha x 7 billion people) which is higher than the 13.4 billion
global hectares (gha) of biologically productive land and water on Earth, a fact that indicates that already exceeded the regenerative capacity of the planet in the average
level of current world consumption.
Specification points covered are: Paper 2 Topic 1 (4.5 - homeostasis and response) 4.5.1 - Homeostasis (B5.1 lesson) 4.5.3.2 - Control of blood glucose concentration (B5.1 lesson) 4.5.2.1 - Structure and function (B5.2 lesson) Required practical 7 - plan and carry out an investigation into the effect of a factor on human reaction time (B5.2 lesson) 4.5.3.1 - Human endocrine system (B5.6 lesson) 4.5.3.4 - Hormones in human reproduction (B5.10 lesson) 4.5.3.5 - Contraception (B5.11 lesson) 4.5.3.6 - The use of hormones to treat infertility (HT only)(B5.12 lesson) 4.5.3.7 - Negative feedback (HT only)(B5.13 lesson) Paper 2 topic 2 (4.6 - Inheritance, variation and evolution) 4.6.1.1 - sexual and asexual reproduction (B6.1 lesson) 4.6.1.2 - Meiosis (B6.1 lesson) 4.6.1.4 - DNA and the genome (B6.3 lesson) 4.6.1.6 - Genetic inheritance (B6.5 lesson) 4.6.1.7 - Inherited disorders (B6.6 lesson) 4.6.1.8 - Sex determination (B6.5 lesson) 4.6.2.1 - Variation (B6.9 lesson) 4.6.2.2 - Evolution (B6.10 lesson) 4.6.2.3 - Selective breeding (B6.11 lesson) 4.6.2.4 - Genetic engineering (B6.11 lesson) 4.6.3.4 - Evidence for evolution (B6.16 lesson) 4.6.3.5 - Fossils (B6.16 lesson) 4.6.3.6 - Extinction (B6.16 lesson) 4.6.3.7 - Resistant bacteria (B6.17 lesson) 4.6.4.1 - classification of living organisms (B6.18 lesson) Paper 2 topic 3 (4.7 - Ecology 4.7.1.1 - Communities (B7.1 lesson) 4.7.1.2 - Abiotic factors (B7.1 lesson) 4.7.1.3 - Biotic factors (B7.1 lesson) 4.7.1.4 — Adaptations (B7.2 lesson) 4.7.2.1 -
Levels of organisation (feeding relationships + predator - prey cycles)(B7.3 lesson) 4.7.2.1 -
Levels of organisation (required practical 9 -
population sizes)(B7.4 lesson) 4.7.2.2 - How materials are cycled (B7.5 lesson) 4.7.3.1 - Biodiversity (B7.7 lesson) 4.7.3.6 - Maintaining Biodiversity (B7.7 lesson) 4.7.3.2 - Waste management (B7.9 lesson) 4.7.3.3 - Land use (B7.9 lesson) 4.7.3.4 - Deforestation (B7.9 lesson) 4.7.3.5 -
Global warming (B7.9 lesson)
What is more, the majority of adult literacy programs are made and implemented by NGOs, and
levels of functional literacy remain low for national active
population: about 70 % of workers that have basic skills in reading, writing and numeracy are unable to use these skills in an effective and competitive way in a context of
global economy.
Among their many motives to seek asylum in other countries are appalling human rights abuses, perpetrated through state - sponsored violence.7 At
global level, the Rwandan refugee
population is virtually estimated at 300 000.8
I suggested that
global population would peak out around 2040 at a lower
level than many suggest — less than nine billion.
If Lovelock's hypothesis is correct, Gaia will — through heat waves, famine and
global epidemics — automatically limit or reduce
population to a
level the biosphere is capable of sustaining.
To have any hope of slowing the pace and holding down the upper
level temperatures that
global warming will bring over this century, the human
population of the world will need to make large reductions of the additional billions of tons of greenhouse gases they are projected to be pumping into the atmosphere, each year.
I chatted with one of the authors, Hans - Peter Kohler of the University of Pennsylvania, and he explained that this finding doesn't appear to influence the
global trajectory toward a
population peak of more or less 9 billion because the
level of development where the uptick in fertility occurs is very high.
Future coastal
population growth and exposure to sea -
level rise and coastal flooding — A
global assessment.
The attempt to increase
global living standards (and thereby reduce
population growth) by exporting production facilities to regions with lower wage and environmental standards has backfired by increasing
levels of water, air and soil pollution — increases that have been felt well beyond the boundaries of those regions.
If we keep doing what we are doing now — as we relentlessly grow
global economic production capabilities, adamantly condone skyrocketing absolute
global human
population numbers, and foolishly raise the
level of per capita consumption of limited resources — are we not likely to keep getting what we are getting now?
It would be cool to see a wide collection of maps covering many different issues, not just climate and food production, but, for instance, poverty and wealth, arms production and war, clothing production and leisure time, education
levels, consumption, production, health,
population growth and decline, movement of immigrants, human rights, animal
populations, housing ownership, housing starts, anything basically which can be measured in a visual map... not just for the US but as
global maps, collected on pages where you could drag them around to sit on top of each other and try and make sense of the various impacts...
This would be a major step, since it would get us back to the
global level of year 1985, when
global population was only 4.8 billion.
Now that another five years have passed without any upsurge in
global fertility
levels, the prospect of a 15 billion
population by end - century must be vanishingly small.
Global Warming Effects on Sea
Level Higher seas endanger coastal communities — where 40 percent of the world's
population lives — and threaten groundwater supplies.
Based on the most up - to - date, peer - reviewed literature on emissions modelling, economics, policies and technologies, today's report reveals how governments, industry and the general public could together reduce the energy and carbon intensity of the
global economy despite growing incomes and
population levels.
Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a
global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted
leveling - off of the
global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source.
The company expects energy demand to grow at an average of about 1 % annually over the next three decades — faster than
population but much slower than the
global economy — with increasing efficiency and a gradual shift toward lower - emission energy sources: Gas increases faster than oil and by more BTUs in total, while coal grows for a while longer but then shrinks back to current
levels.
Restoring open ocean plankton
populations to known 1980
levels of health would not only annually sequester at minimum 3 ~ 4 billion tons of atmospheric CO2 (or half our
global warming surplus today), it would regenerate tens of billions of tons of missing nourishment for fisheries, seabirds and marine mammals.
I rarely post on this site but feel compelled to based on comment # 13 above, specifically the following paragraph: «Restoring open ocean plankton
populations to known 1980
levels of health would not only annually sequester at minimum 3 ~ 4 billion tons of atmospheric CO2 (or half our
global warming surplus today), it would regenerate tens of billions of tons of missing nourishment for fisheries, seabirds and marine mammals.»
More than a third of the
global population is affected by water scarcity, and 80 % of wastewater is discharged untreated, adding to already problematic
levels of water pollution.