But if we take English seats - Scotland's battle lines are different, while the politics of Plaid in Wales are complicated - and combine the Labour, Lib Dem and
Green votes in each seat from 2015 on one side, and Tory and Ukip votes on the other, then the Tories in fact do better than before.
Not exact matches
Green Party co-leader Caroline Lucas successfully defended her
seat in Brighton Pavilion, while Ukip has yet to win a single
seat and their
vote share has reduced.
I think activists can work to get
Greens and Respect elected
in a handful of FPTP
seats and we must all hope for an embarrassingly massive Tory landslide (300
seats or so) on < 50 % of the
vote that will make everyone see what an absurd situation we are
in, make Cameron's parliamentary party more unruly and nekedly nasty and — crucially — smash the Labour Party so hard that both its right and its left give up all hope of ever winning a FPTP election again, and destroy the hubris that decrees that they never collaborate with other progressive / left forces.
With just over three weeks to go before a crucial byelection
in the normally safe Tory
seat of Rochester and Strood, which Ukip threatens to seize, the poll puts Ukip on 18 % of the national
vote, with the Lib Dems on 6 % and the
Greens on 4 %.
Thus they are strongly supported by parties like the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, the
Greens and so, that often pile up millions of
votes in FPTP contests but may win few or no
seats, because they are less commonly or rarely the largest party
in a given local area.
Under first - past - the - post, they have fared less strongly
in general elections, typically recording around one per cent of the UK - wide
vote (although a slightly higher average
in the
seats they contest);
in 2010, the
Greens won 0.96 per cent of the
vote (1.81 per cent
in the
seats where they put up a candidate), and returned an MP to the House of Commons for the first time, as Caroline Lucas wrested Brighton Pavilion from Labour.
The support of Lib Dem and
Green voters could be crucial to Lewis's hopes of retaining his
seat in a city where the Remain
vote was 56.2 %.
[4]
In the 2015 general election, the Lib Dem vote fell by 29.2 %; Williams came a distant third behind the winning Labour candidate Thangam Debbonaire and more than 5,000 votes behind the Green Party candidate, who achieved the greatest increase in the Green vote (+23 %) in any seat that electio
In the 2015 general election, the Lib Dem
vote fell by 29.2 %; Williams came a distant third behind the winning Labour candidate Thangam Debbonaire and more than 5,000
votes behind the
Green Party candidate, who achieved the greatest increase
in the Green vote (+23 %) in any seat that electio
in the
Green vote (+23 %)
in any seat that electio
in any
seat that election.
Meanwhile, although the
Greens are running at much the same share of the
vote as the Liberal Democrats, they will do well to pick up a second
seat to add to the first they won
in 2010.
The
Greens earned 10.6 % of the
vote (up from 6.7 %
in 2008) and increased their number of
seats in parliament from 9 to 13.
Nicola Sturgeon's party fell two
seats short of an overall majority, meaning a coalition of the Tories, Lib Dems, Labour and
Greens could defeat them
in votes.
In comparison, Lewes is a true swing
seat, where the
Green vote may have had an impact on the result.
That leaves 21
seats that
voted to Leave,
in some cases quite heavily, and often with sizeable Ukip
votes that outstrip the combined support for the Lib Dems and
Greens that Labour could tactically call upon.
It was actually 62 % of labour voters
voted to remain, and the labour
vote,
in 2015 was made up of many people who'd
voted Libdem, or
greens in 2010, labour having lost several of its supporters who'd
voted for us
in 2010 when Gordon was leader, and many who'd
voted labour since the 60's, not
voting for us for the first time, but the fact was, with our Scittish and inner London, Manchester, Liverpool
vote,
voting for us so heavily, ball areas called our heartlands, and Scotland aside, areas we increased our
votes in, at the last election, without catching those swing
seats, meant that many of our traditional areas Sunderland & Wales saw our core
vote, massively
vote leave,
The
Green Party's success
in 2010, especially
in contrast with parties like UKIP and the BNP who won more
votes but no
seats, shows the importance of making every
vote count by focusing on the areas where success is most likely.
My quess is, if Ms. Clinton is nominated, the
Green Party will pick up 30 % of the popular
vote in Oregon and cost the Democrats any chance at Senator Gordon's
seat AND will cause them to loose two Congressional
seats.
The
Greens tactic of saying they were the ones who could beat the BNP
in the NW almost worked: they were within 5,000
votes of overtaking them and this winning that final
seat.
Greens / UKIP having (even) massive second preference
vote tallies will not translate into even a tiny increase
in their
seat total (
Green) or even one
seat (UKIP).
This is a
seat where Labor has often trailed on first preference
votes in recent years, only to win on the preferences of Australian Democrat and
Green candidates.
Votes for the
Greens, Ukip and the BNP may shape the outcomes
in perhaps hundreds of
seats as well, though they would have to benefit the Lib Dems disproportionately
in order to boost nottle numbers rather than those of the two main parties.
If the demographic patterns to the
voting alignments
in Batman are repeated at the Victorian state election on November 24, the
Greens could win at least four lower house
seats.
The paper reports that Labour is intending to try and highlight divisions with Conservative Party over climate change
in the top Tory target
seats where the
Green Party won more than 2 % of the
vote at the last election -
in the hope of stopping
Green supporters from switching to back the Conservatives and helping to deliver a Tory majority
in the Commons.
With 1.1 m
votes at the general election, more than 150 councillors, two
seats on the London assembly and the
Green candidate coming third
in the London mayor elections, the
Greens think this is unfair.
Despite a resurgent of
Green Party activity
in the past half - decade, Matt Funiciello garnered just 4.3 percent of the
vote, and down - ticket candidates running for
seats in the state legislature barely cracked the double digits.
John Curtice's projection
in the Scotsman has these shares of the
vote translating into 57
seats for Labour, 48 for the SNP, 13 for the Conservatives, 6 for the
Greens and 5 for the Liberal Democrats.
UKIP and the
Greens saw their best - ever results
in terms of
vote share (7 % for the
Greens and 5 % for UKIP), but whilst UKIP gained 12
seats, the
Greens gained just 2.
In a Daily Politics film, Giles Dilnot spoke to the UKIP, Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and Green candidates about the vote in the Kent sea
In a Daily Politics film, Giles Dilnot spoke to the UKIP, Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and
Green candidates about the
vote in the Kent sea
in the Kent
seat.
[10] This occurred on the same night as the local
Green Party stood aside
in Brighton Kemptown
in order to ensure the
seat was not won by the Conservatives due to a split
vote between progressive parties.
There was of course the
Green surge, which amounted to no gain
in seats, a loss of working - class
votes to UKIP, and the SNP's referendum - inspired surge
in Scotland — but as yet no Party can outflank Labour's Left across the UK.
This makes a relatively minor difference
in Con - v - Lab
seats (mainly it reduces the proportion of people saying «other», presumably because some people out there would like to
vote Green or BNP or something, but don't normally have a candidate from that party to
vote for).
Then,
in 2020, there could be dozens of
seats in which the «wasted
vote» argument for sticking to the two big parties won't apply, and tactical
voting could help Ukip and the
Greens.
(a) win many Labour
seats (b) split the
vote enough
in seats where Corbynites get more of the Labour
vote to hand them to the Tories or UKIP (or,
in a handful of cases, the Lib Dems or
Greens).
Labour — downgrading again to 265 - 275, based on the SNPs» continued surge and Conservatives doing better
in our
seat -
voting question as the election draws near and views are localised: SNP 45; Lib Dems 30; Ukip 6;
Green 1; Respect 1.
Labour should hold here because the north of the
seat around Southville and Totterdown are very «metropolitan left» and these places would have been the source for the bulk of the 12 %
Green vote in 2015.
This might seem utterly obvious but The Economist report that as «the Scottish National Party,
Greens and struggling Lib Dems (are) all prepared to support a left - leaning government... Miliband (could be
in) power even if Labour wins considerably fewer
seats and
votes than the Tories».
The calculus of this risk is informed by the likelihood of Labour losing
votes and
seats to the SNP
in Scotland, UKIP
in the north of England and the
Greens across the UK.
Carmichael lost to the former Labour MP and teacher by almost 700
votes, while
Greening's majority
in her south London
seat of Putney was cut from more than 10,000 to less than 2,000.
Carmichael lost to his Labour opponent — former Labour MP and teacher David Drew — by almost 700
votes, while
Greening's majority
in her south London
seat of Putney was cut from more than 10,000 to less than 2,000.
Because the
Green Party's 8 % of the popular
vote is spread across Canada, rather than concentrated
in a single province, they did not receive a single
seat, while the Bloc won 49
seats.