If subsequent emissions decrease 6 % / year, additional emissions are ∼ 130 GtC, for a total ∼ 500
GtC fossil fuel emissions.
A cumulative industrial - era limit of ∼ 500
GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted.
The eventual warming from 1000
GtC fossil fuel emissions likely would reach well over 2 °C, for several reasons.
If one takes as the total emissions a «natural» part (60 GtC from soils + 60 GtC from land plants) and the 7
GtC fossil emissions as anthropogenic part, the anthropogenic portion is about 5 % (7 of 127 billion tons of carbon) as cited in the Welt article.
Now let us compare the 1 °C (500
GtC fossil fuel emissions) and the 2 °C (1000
GtC fossil fuel emissions) scenarios.
The eventual warming from 1000
GtC fossil fuel emissions likely would reach well over 2 °C, for several reasons.
A cumulative industrial - era limit of ∼ 500
GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted.
limit of ~ 500
GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted.
Not exact matches
If the carbon fee had begun in 1995, we calculate that global emissions would have needed to decline 2.1 % / year to limit cumulative
fossil fuel emissions to 500
GtC.
Total emissions through 2012, including gas flaring and cement manufacture, are 384
GtC;
fossil fuel emissions alone are ∼ 370
GtC.
Cumulative
fossil fuel emissions in this scenario are ∼ 129
GtC from 2013 to 2050, with an additional 14
GtC by 2100.
A limit of approximately 500
GtC on cumulative
fossil fuel emissions, accompanied by a net storage of 100
GtC in the biosphere and soil, could keep global temperature close to the Holocene range, assuming that the net future forcing change from other factors is small.
Further, it is not obvious to us that there are physical or economic limitations that prohibit
fossil fuel emission targets far lower than 1000
GtC, even targets closer to 500
GtC.
A 6 % / year decrease of
fossil fuel emissions beginning in 2013, with 100
GtC reforestation, achieves a CO2 decline to 350 ppm near the end of this century (Fig. 5A).
Fossil fuel emissions of 1000
GtC, sometimes associated with a 2 °C global warming target, would be expected to cause large climate change with disastrous consequences.
Let us update this analysis to the present:
fossil fuel emissions in 2007 — 2012 were 51
GtC [5], so, assuming no net emissions from land use in these few years, the M2009 study implies that the remaining budget at the beginning of 2013 was 128
GtC.
There are sufficient
fossil fuel resources to readily supply 1000
GtC, as
fossil fuel emissions to date (370
GtC) are only a small fraction of potential emissions from known reserves and potentially recoverable resources (Fig. 2).
Fossil fuel emissions through 2012 total ∼ 370
GtC (Fig. 2).
In contrast, warming reaches 1.5 °C and stays above 1 °C until after 2400 if emissions continue to increase until 2030, even though
fossil fuel emissions are phased out rapidly (5 % / year) after 2030 and 100
GtC reforestation occurs during 2030 — 2080.
That is true, but both goals, extracting 100
GtC from the atmosphere via improved forestry and agricultural practices (with possibly some assistance from CCS technology) and limiting additional net change of non-CO2 forcings to zero, are feasible and probably much easier than the principal task of limiting additional
fossil fuel emissions to 130
GtC.
which, compared to current
fossil fuel and deforestation emissions of ~ 10
GtC / yr is 4 orders of magnitude too small to be relevant.
Around half, so if current total CO2 emissions (as carbon) are at 7.2
GtC (only looking at
fossil fuels), then around 3.6 Gt of carbon stay in the atmosphere each year — and it's worth wondering what processes account for the uptake of the other half... meaning that it's possible that more CO2 could start lingering.
That 2.2
GtC would need to be made up of Sequestered Carbon from Negative Emission Technologies (NETs) and real reductions in
Fossil Fuel, Cement and Fertiliser Use.
If I have your numbers aright (a dangerous assumption, granted), added to an already emitted 500
GtC, 139
GtC from oil, 100
GtC from Gas, 230
GtC from Canadian tar sands, 846
GtC from coal, bringing this
fossil fuel total to circe 1,800
GtC.
Overall, net biospheric uptake is about 1.3
GtC / yr [billion tons of carbon a year], which is a small fraction of the overall annual exchange of about 60
GtC / yr and only a modest fraction of
fossil fuel emissions of over 8
GtC / yr.
Given that the United States is responsible for 26 % of the
fossil fuel CO2 in the air today, the U.S. cost share for removing 5
GtC / year would be ~ $ 2.6 trillion each year.
«With cumulative
fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (
GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice - free with an average contribution to sea - level rise exceeding 3 meters per century during the first millennium.»
We're now at ~ 10
GtC / year (
fossil fuel and cement), compared to 5 — 6
GtC / year in the 80s / 90s.
The 8
GtC is what is calculated from
fossil fuel use, again nothing to do with some unknown quantity.
Carbon emissions from the global consumption of
fossil fuels are currently above 8
GtC per year and rising faster than the most pessimistic economic model considered by the IPCC.
Carbon dioxide emissions from
fossil fuels and cement production — from 1750 to 2011 — was about 365 billion metric tonnes as carbon (
GtC), with another 180
GtC from deforestation and agriculture.
Cumulative
fossil fuel emissions in this scenario are ∼ 129
GtC from 2013 to 2050, with an additional 14
GtC by 2100.
Let us update this analysis to the present:
fossil fuel emissions in 2007 — 2012 were 51
GtC [5], so, assuming no net emissions from land use in these few years, the M2009 study implies that the remaining budget at the beginning of 2013 was 128
GtC.
That is true, but both goals, extracting 100
GtC from the atmosphere via improved forestry and agricultural practices (with possibly some assistance from CCS technology) and limiting additional net change of non-CO2 forcings to zero, are feasible and probably much easier than the principal task of limiting additional
fossil fuel emissions to 130
GtC.
Further, it is not obvious to us that there are physical or economic limitations that prohibit
fossil fuel emission targets far lower than 1000
GtC, even targets closer to 500
GtC.
In contrast, warming reaches 1.5 °C and stays above 1 °C until after 2400 if emissions continue to increase until 2030, even though
fossil fuel emissions are phased out rapidly (5 % / year) after 2030 and 100
GtC reforestation occurs during 2030 — 2080.
Total emissions through 2012, including gas flaring and cement manufacture, are 384
GtC;
fossil fuel emissions alone are ∼ 370
GtC.
A 6 % / year decrease of
fossil fuel emissions beginning in 2013, with 100
GtC reforestation, achieves a CO2 decline to 350 ppm near the end of this century (Fig. 5A).
If that path (with 2 % / year growth) continues for 20 years and is then followed by 3 % / year emission reduction from 2033 to 2150, we find that
fossil fuel emissions in 2150 would total 1022
GtC.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2013 estimated that cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from
fossil fuels and cement production — from 1750 to 2011 — was about 365 billion metric tonnes as carbon (
GtC), with another 180
GtC from deforestation and agriculture.
Fossil fuel emissions through 2012 total ∼ 370
GtC (Fig. 2).
The correct total for CDIAC's estimate of
fossil fuel and land use changes is only 41.5
GtC, not 75.45!
Now the total gross input of CO2 into the atmosphere each year according to my old global carbon cycle chart is 157.1
gtC per year of which 5.5 comes from
fossil fuels and cement (3.5 %) which is where the 3 % number John mentioned comes from.
Humans, he writes, will burn through 10,000
GtC of
fossil fuels by then.
Indeed, global - scale
fossil fuel or CO2 emissions rates have increased by approximately 100 % since the late 1970s, or from about 5 gigatons of carbon (
GtC) per year (late 1970s) to about 10
GtC / year by 2014.
DocMartyn, The error bars for the emissions (based on tax revenues of
fossil fuel sales and burning efficiency) are somewhere around -15 % to +20 % or 8
GtC / year -0.5 to + 1
GtC, a slight underestimate more probable than an overestimate.
«Total cumulative emissions from 1870 to 2013 were 390 ± 20
GtC from
fossil fuels and cement, and 145 ± 50 from land use change.
I started with the RCP8.5
Fossil and Industrial Emissions data in
GtC / Yr.
When you state «On current
fossil fuel energy use forecasts we run out of the remaining 250
GtC Carbon Budget to remain under a 2 C rise around 2033 or in 20 years.»
On current
fossil fuel energy use forecasts we run out of the remaining 250
GtC Carbon Budget to remain under a 2 C rise around 2033 or in 20 years.