Base period 1961 - 1990 is used for comparison with published
HadCRUT analyses in Figures 3 and 4.)
Judith, John et al — I have tweeted with documentation showing (even in Phil Jones's words) that the NCDC, GISS and
HadCRUT analyses draw from mostly the same raw data.
Not exact matches
[Response: This is a very frequent error (Watts has made it many times before), and stems from their confusion between the
HadCRUT data set (which is a collaboration between the Hadley Centre (providing SST and sea ice cover) and the CRU (which provides the met station
analysis) and the actual institutions (which are completely independent and separated by a couple of hundred miles).
This
analysis was based on
HadCRUT, which seems to be underestimating recent warming.
Fig. 1 (b) shows that the anomaly between observations and the CMIP5 mean temperature response to cumulative emissions is halved by repeating the Millar
analysis with the GISTEMP product instead of
HadCRUT.
Note by the way that each «skeptic»
analysis relies on either
HadCRUT or UAH / RSS temperature data, which are either known to or very possibly have a cool bias.
True, but fails to explain why the longer - term mean about which those cycles fluctuate is trending up other than curve - fitting an «approximation by three sinusoids of periods 1000 years, 210 years and 60 years,» ANSWER: The curve fitting exercise is labeled as such «heuristic»; the lengths of the cycles are from other observations, some displayed on figures 5 - B & C; only the amplitudes and phase of the 215 and 60 years sinusoids are subject to optimization; Singular Spectrum
Analysis has been applied by Diego Macias et al (note 18) to the
HadCRUT series with equivalent results, and among many others by Liu Yu et al..
The previous
analysis of urbanisation effects in the
HadCRUT dataset [Folland et al., 2001] recommended a 1 sigma uncertainty which increased from 0 in 1900 to 0.05 deg C in 1990 (linearly extrapolated after 1990)[Jones et al., 1990].
But then, you have ascribed the increase at the end of
HadCRUT record, which according to your own
analysis is DUE TO THE 323 YEAR CYCLE, and claimed that it was the effect of humankind.
You have left out of your recent
analysis the largest cycle in the
HadCRUT data.
HadCRUT has large areas of missing data over the poles and a less complete land
analysis than ocean
analysis at lower latitudes.
Douglass et al.; Surface; * GISTEMP *
HadCRUT * NOAA Radiosondes; * HadAT2 * IGRA * RAOBCORE * RATPAK Satellite
analyses; * RSS * UAH * UMd
The CCSP report; Surface; * GISTEMP *
HadCRUT * NOAA Radiosondes; * HadAT2 * RATPAC Satellite
analyses; * RSS * UAH * UMd
Using
HadCRUT when BEST is demonstrably superior isn't per se «wrong» so much as indicative of poor judgement or possibly cherry picking for an agenda; especially this is so when one has so many datasets available and instead of treating each one separately and distinctly and attempting to confirm one's hypothesis on just one of them at a time and commenting on differences among them, one stitches together exactly the pieces one can force into a persuasive but meaningless shape in what can only be viewed as a spoof of graphical
analysis.