Lets look at
the Hadcrut global temperature record to see how well these statements stand up to empirical evidence.
Gima using part of
the HadCRUT global temperature series (1910 — 2000) rather the entire series (1850 -2000) is not scientific method, it's cherry picking.
Note: Source of
HadCRUT global temperature data.
The Met Office (UKMO) refuses to release data and methodology for
their HadCRUT global temperature dataset after being asked repeatedly.
Using monthly data from 1900 to April 2009 on
Hadcrut global temp (not N hemisphere, which data I do not have handy): 1.
The right chart represents the latest
HadCRUT global temperatures during the same time period, along with the atmospheric CO2 levels.
As you may know,
the HADCRUT global surface temperature dataset, often preferred by climate «skeptics», got increased Arctic coverage in ver 4.
While reviewing the bounty of solar and climate information found at the Global Warming Science site, we found the adjacent chart (this is the «C3» revised version using annual
HadCRUT global temperatures instead of monthly).
Blue line is a five year running average of
HadCRUT global surface air temperature (Huang 2000).
If one takes the long term (not detrended) GCR data from Oulu, and
HadCRUT global temperature, and compares them, more GCRs correlates with higher, not lower temperatures.
Once it is published, the historical
HadCRUT global temperature anomalies will also be updated.
The latest incarnation of the CRUTEM land surface temperatures and
the HadCRUT global temperatures are out this week.
Not exact matches
The confused argument hinges on one data set — the
HadCRUT 3V — which is only one of several estimates, and it is the
global temperature record that exhibits the least change over the last decade.
Figure 7: a, b d) plots of
global temperature in degrees C since 1850 from
Hadcrut, GISS, and Berkeley combined land and ocean datasets.
Fig. 4 The «Cold Sun» forecast of Vahrenholt and Lüning compared with
global surface temperatures of the British Meteorological Service (
HadCRUT data), moving average over 23 months to end of October 2016.
Fig. 5 The «Cold Sun» forecast of Vahrenholt and Lüning compared with
global surface temperatures of the British Meteorological Service (
HadCRUT data), running average over 37 months.
So I don't think it is unreasonable to use
HadCRUT for analyzing
global temperatures and not bother comparing the results to GISTEMP.
I have seen things on blogs where people try to jam together (by visual estimation of published graphs) previous forecasts of
global temperature against actuals (eg
HADCRUT).
I suspect you're looking at the
Hadcrut temperature data since that's the one that gives «a ~ 0.5 deg rise in
global temperatures»...» between ~ 1910 and ~ 1945».
If you're talking about
global mean temperature I would advise you to compare the projections of the IPCC to the actual measurements of GISS as well as
HadCRUT, RSS MSU, and UAH MSU measured data.
GISTEMP assumes that the Arctic is warming as fast as the stations around the Arctic, while
HadCRUT and NCDC assume the Arctic is warming as fast as the
global mean.
+0.51 ºC......... +0.49 ºC......... 12th The «
global» monthly anomalies 2010 to date for
HadCRUT, GISS, NOAA, BEST, UAH & RSS are graphed here (usually two clicks to «download your attachment»)
have shown already in 2010 that
global warming is underestimated in the
HadCRUT data, and we have discussed the Arctic data hole repeatedly since 2008 at RealClimate.
Taking the temperature of the earth in 1910 and 2013 and joining the dots, we get a total temperature rise of 0.8 o C, as confirmed by the
Hadcrut 4
Global Mean temperature.
There was another standstill of
global warming in the eighties and nineties that is not visible in ground - based temperature records such as GISS, NCDC, and
HadCRUT.
Global - temperature data will have to be modified if similar climate - date procedures have been used from other national data because the calculations used by COP15 analysts, including financial calculations, are based on
HadCRUT research.
Indeed the only commonly accepted
global temperature measurement that «appears» to show any decline is the supposedly «discredited»
HadCRUT.
Hadcrut 4 is one of several similar
global databases that reveal the same thing: that since January 1997 there has been no statistically significant warming of the Earth's surface.
If you use
HADCRUT temperature record for the Southern Hemisphere from 1850 it is possible to discern a peak in 1880, 60 years before the 1940 peak, and 120 years before 2000 when the infamous «
global cooling» period, 2002 - 08, kicks in.
Given that there is greater uncertainty associated with the
HadCRUT data prior to 1900 due to fewer stations and sparser
global coverage, and that the TCR constrained by 1901 - 2000 data better matches the IPCC central TCR estimates, their higher TCR (approximately 1.7 to 2.5 °C) seems more likely to be correct.
HadCRUT released their latest
global temperature dataset today, which confirmed what both NOAA and NASA reported earlier this month - that
global temps declined during July 2012.
HadCRUT is the IPCC's gold - standard for measuring
global temperatures - over last 15 years (180 months) the globe has cooled with a -0.24 C per century trend, not warmed as predicted
Reader Eric Worrall writes: I was playing with Wood For Trees, looking at the relationship between Pacific Decadal Oscillation vs
global temperature (
Hadcrut 4), when the following graph appeared.
Global mean temperature stayed constant but that is not what
HadCRUT shows — they have an imaginary Hansen warming (remember Hansen 1988?)
HadCRUT omits missing regions from its calculations of
global mean temperature trends; NASA extrapolates temperatures for those areas using data from their edges.
Indeed I used an AMO time series to «correct» the
Global Gistemp and
HadCRUT records for this factor and the results were quite similar to the SH graph.
The adjacent plot (click on chart to enlarge) of
global HadCRUT October temperature anomalies from two different periods clearly documents the minor impact of human CO2 emissions.
If we look at reliable temperature data from
Hadcrut 3 or 4 without muddling them together with all manner of shenanigans then the data shows us that mean
global temperatures have not continued unabated.
There is only one incontrovertable fact about
global; warming and that is that NCDC, GISS,
HadCRUT, UAH MSU, and RSS MSU all show no
global warming since 2002 in spite of the increase in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels from 26.301 Gt in 2002 to 33.158 Gt in 2010.
Wasn't it a NASA employee in an email who effectively stated
HadCRUT was a better product for
global temperature data?
-- Observed changes [in
global climate] have, indeed, occurred since the modern
HadCRUT temperature record started in 1850, but there is no real - world empirical evidence for anthropogenic contributions to these changes.
why do you think they character attack Phil Jones and claim his
HadCRUT3 work is untrustworthy and inferior to Spencer's UAH, but then when they want to wheel out
global cooling claims they use
HadCRUT and go out their way to avoid using UAH?
Last 100 Years of CO2 & Temperatures: The IPCC's
HadCRUT Data Confirms CO ²'s Small Impact On
Global Warming
Figure 1: Contributions of solar activity (dark blue), volcanic activity (red), ENSO (green), and anthropogenic effects (purple) to
global surface warming (
HadCRUT observations shown in light blue), according to Lean and Rind (2008).
The relation d (CO2 natural)(t) / dt = k (T (t)- T0) of figure 17 - B has been proved by several authors (Jeffrey Park, Murry Salby, Beenstock) with quite different techniques and alas without subtraction of the anthropic part; that is inconvenient for the last 12 years since the surge of the Chinese coal is quite significant (figure 17 - E right), but their results are only bettered by using the relevant time series CO2natural (t) and T (t) intertropical UAH instead of some
global CO2 (t) and
global T (t) from
HadCRUT or GISS.
The coherence with
global indices is nonexistent, except at the very lowest trend - influenced frequencies of similarly UHI - corrupted indices, such as
HADCRUT and BEST.
All three of the key mean
global temperature anomaly indices rely on this same NOAA GHCN dataset, so that NOAA, GISS and
HadCRUT.
For corrections to Lewis number of CS, the following comments may relevant: (1) Lewis picked
HADCRUT for
global temperature, and calculated 0.727 C since 1880.
That is just «
global» SST with
hadcrut Tmax and Tmin.
There are three main
global land / ocean surface temperature series, produced by NOAA's National Climate Data Center (NCDC), NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISTemp), and the UK's Hadley Center (
HadCRUT).