Investment grade and
high yield bond spreads are at record levels.
High yield bond spreads are a little tighter than they should be according to the analysis.
U.S.
high yield bond spreads neared recession levels in February, as prices declined and yields increased.
Consumer confidence and
high yield bond spreads corroborate the unemployment rate in suggesting that we are in the mature stages of the current business cycle.
Below you'll find the SPY and BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Option - Adjusted Spread (
a high yield bond spread index) plotted against SPY.
Not exact matches
I noted a week ago that Bernanke had essentially eased monetary policy by spurring a loosening of financial conditions via
higher stock prices, lower
bond yields, tighter credit
spreads, and a weakening of the U.S. dollar.
In this regard, our surveillance has been closely monitoring for any signs of liquidity strains associated with the recent increases in
spreads for
high -
yield corporate
bonds, as well as for idiosyncratic events affecting particular funds in this segment, such as the events surrounding the abrupt closing of Third Avenue Management's Focused Credit Fund last December.
One of the best coincident and real - time indicators of bursting bubbles and recessions is the
yield spread between US
high -
yield corporate
bonds and the 10 - year US Treasury.
This
high -
yield, or junk,
bond market has been getting a lot of attention lately as credit
spreads have blown out.
But a continuation of favorable economic growth and low default levels — which we expect — and measured Federal Reserve tightening — which we also expect — should support more narrow
high -
yield bond spreads for some time to come.
The
yield on the U.S. 10 year Treasury
bond recently hit 9 - month
highs and the 2s10s
spread widened on news of the Bank of Japan trimming its long - dated
bond buying program and questions around China's ongoing purchase of U.S. Treasuries (USTs) with its foreign - exchange reserves.
One of the best economic indicators, the
yield curve or the
spread between short and long - term
bonds remains in positive territory, with the long - term much
higher than the short.
This leaves us roughly in the same position that we started the year, slightly overweight to
spread product, i.e., investment - grade and
high -
yield corporate
bonds and emerging markets (more recently, we also went back to a slight overweight on commercial mortgage - backed securities).
A typical measure of credit conditions are «
spreads» — the difference between the
yield of 10 - year U.S. Treasury
bonds and that of riskier
bonds, such as
high yield.
Last week,
spreads on the Morningstar Corporate
Bond Index, an investment - grade corporate bond gauge, and the BofA Merrill Lynch High Yield Master Index, shot hig
Bond Index, an investment - grade corporate
bond gauge, and the BofA Merrill Lynch High Yield Master Index, shot hig
bond gauge, and the BofA Merrill Lynch
High Yield Master Index, shot
higher.
Typically, a
higher - rate environment will increase
spreads for banks / insurers, but you're absolutely right that the 10 - year
yield could stay flat, especially when the
yields for government
bonds of other countries are so low.
The average bid / ask
spread was 29 cents (per $ 100 par value) for both investment - grade and
high -
yield bonds, and the average daily trading volume was $ 2.2 million ($ 2.5 million) for investment - grade (
high -
yield) corporate
bonds.
Higher transaction costs Due to a typically large spread between bid and offer prices, and higher transaction costs associated with less liquid securities, trading high yield bonds can be c
Higher transaction costs Due to a typically large
spread between bid and offer prices, and
higher transaction costs associated with less liquid securities, trading high yield bonds can be c
higher transaction costs associated with less liquid securities, trading
high yield bonds can be costly.
The BofA Merrill Lynch
high -
yield index is trading at roughly 600 basis points versus government
bonds, but if energy, metals and mining is excluded, it's about 80 basis points less in terms of
spread.
High yield (HY) spreads — the difference between the yield of a high yield bond and a Treasury note of similar duration — are down 2 percentage points from their February peak, as investors buy high yield bo
High yield (HY)
spreads — the difference between the
yield of a
high yield bond and a Treasury note of similar duration — are down 2 percentage points from their February peak, as investors buy high yield bo
high yield bond and a Treasury note of similar duration — are down 2 percentage points from their February peak, as investors buy
high yield bo
high yield bonds.
After providing double - digit returns for many years, REITs are now well off the previous
highs and trade at an estimated 15 % discount to net asset value (Source: TD Securities) and
yielding an average of 7 %, a
spread of 2.75 % over 10 - year
bonds.
Investors will therefore require a
higher yield than would otherwise be the case for this
bond, increasing its credit
spread.
U.S.
high -
yield bond spreads are 34 basis points, or hundredths of a percentage point, tighter; cover
spreads are 21 basis points tighter, and emerging - market credit excess returns are at 3.6 %.
High -
yield bond spreads have widened, but only marginally, from historically tight levels.
After reaching a year - to - date low Option Adjusted
Spread (OAS) of 378 bps on May 8, the spread for the S&P U.S. Issued High Yield Corporate Bond Index reversed dire
Spread (OAS) of 378 bps on May 8, the
spread for the S&P U.S. Issued High Yield Corporate Bond Index reversed dire
spread for the S&P U.S. Issued
High Yield Corporate
Bond Index reversed direction.
High -
yield bonds have followed suit, hitting decade - tight levels in credit
spreads in October, though they have widened slightly since then.
We favor a more even
yield - curve exposure today (with positions across maturities) and a more defensive (
higher - quality) credit profile — as volatility and heightened credit concerns could lead to significantly wider
spreads in the
high -
yield -
bond market.
In recent weeks, the
spread (or difference) between the
yield of the 10 - year Treasury and a
high yield bond of comparable maturity actually widened a bit, roughly 0.45 %, restoring some value in the space.
Spreads (the difference between the
yield of a
high yield bond and a U.S. Treasury) have come in considerably since the winter lows.
Typically, the
higher risk a
bond or asset class carries, the
higher its
yield spread.
The
spread moved from 5 BP to 5.5 BP, indicating that
high -
yield bonds underperformed Treasuries during that time period.
I learned from a dear friend of mine who manages
high yield at Dwight Asset Management (one of the largest fixed income management shops that you never heard of), that with
high yield bonds,
spreads over Treasuries aren't the most relevant measure for riskiness of the
bonds.
I learned from a dear friend of mine who manages
high yield at Dwight Asset Management (one of the largest fixed income management shops that you never heard of), that with
high yield bonds,
spread...
Spread curves of
high yield bonds tend to invert when the Treasury
yield curve is steeply sloped.
Chart 1: The S&P 500 BB
High Yield Corporate
Bond Index
spread to the S&P 500 Investment Grade Corporate
Bond Index:
The duration matched
spread to Treasuries or the OAS (Option Adjusted Spread) for both the S&P U.S. Issued Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index and the S&P U.S. Issued High Yield Corporate Bond Index are tighter by 16 and 33 basis points respect
spread to Treasuries or the OAS (Option Adjusted
Spread) for both the S&P U.S. Issued Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index and the S&P U.S. Issued High Yield Corporate Bond Index are tighter by 16 and 33 basis points respect
Spread) for both the S&P U.S. Issued Investment Grade Corporate
Bond Index and the S&P U.S. Issued
High Yield Corporate
Bond Index are tighter by 16 and 33 basis points respectively.
Yield blindness or stated another way, the insatiable search for yield coupled with the low supply of higher yielding bonds has kept many weaker credits including Illinois from seeing higher spr
Yield blindness or stated another way, the insatiable search for
yield coupled with the low supply of higher yielding bonds has kept many weaker credits including Illinois from seeing higher spr
yield coupled with the low supply of
higher yielding bonds has kept many weaker credits including Illinois from seeing
higher spreads.
The proximate cause of this sell - off is a reappraisal of risk in the credit markets, starting first at subprime but now having
spread to the riskier parts of corporate credit, namely
high -
yield bonds and loans to finance buy - outs.
Vertical factor:
spread of Baa
bond yields over Aaa
bond yields — Hypothesis: When
spreads are
high, stock valuations tend to be low.
When is it safest to buy
high yield bonds — when
spreads are tight, or when
spreads are wide?
In our opinion, the so - called «
spread sectors,» from
high -
yield bonds to non-agency mortgages and emerging - market debt (EMD), currently offer attractive levels of credit, prepayment, and liquidity risks, particularly for investors who know how to analyze these risks.
This flight to quality movement also impacted credit
spreads, which widened for both investment grade and
high yield corporate
bonds, negatively impacting the returns of
bonds in those sectors.
But last week the benchmark 10 - year U.S. Treasury
bond yield jumped to a six month
high around 3.75 pct, while the
spread between 2 - year and 10 - year
bond yields widened to a record 2.75 percentage points.
High yield municipal
bond yields and relative
spreads to investment grade munis have moved to lows not seen since 2008.
This is partly due to the fact that credit
spreads blew out to historic
highs which weighed on corporate
bonds,
high yield and preferreds.
The
yield spread between
high yield and investment grade municipal
bonds is now at 265bps or 2.65 % (on March 15, 2012 the
spread was 351bps).
For example, the
spread between
high yield junk
bonds and the risk - free rate of comparable treasuries has rarely been this low.
The result:
higher prices for riskier assets like equities and tighter
spreads for
high yield and emerging market (EM)
bonds.
Since 1997, a two - factor model incorporating the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and
high yield spreads (the difference between the
yield of a
high yield bond and that of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury) explained nearly 60 % of the variation in the VIX.
Same for
bond yields — better to be aggressive when rates and
spreads are
high, and defensive when they are low.