Not exact matches
Indeed, the main quandary faced by climate scientists is
how to estimate climate sensitivity from the Little Ice Age or Medieval
Warm Period, at all, given the relative small forcings over the past 1000 years, and the
substantial uncertainties in both the forcings and the temperature changes.
Here are some fresh thoughts on the enduring and important questions surrounding «climate sensitivity» —
how much
warming will result from a
substantial buildup of greenhouse gases.
Indeed, the main quandary faced by climate scientists is
how to estimate climate sensitivity from the Little Ice Age or Medieval
Warm Period, at all, given the relative small forcings over the past 1000 years, and the
substantial uncertainties in both the forcings and the temperature changes.
Given that human emissions of CO2 were not very
substantial until after WW2 I can not see
how human GHGs could have contributed quickly enough or significantly enough to the observed
warming of the early and late 20th Century.
The big picture is that we know the planet is
warming, humans are causing it, there is a
substantial risk to continuing on our current path, but we don't know exactly
how large the risk is.
A new method for projecting
how the temperature will respond to human impacts supports the outlook for
substantial global
warming throughout this century — but also indicates that, in many regions,
warming patterns are likely...
As a layman, I can not understand
how the «no
warming since insert year here» can coexist with the fact that we have just completed the hottest decade on record, containing a
substantial number of the hottest years on record.
Finally, we will offer recommendations on
how to reduce potent, non-CO2 influences on global
warming, which can be reduced in the near - term with
substantial benefits, while buying us time to decarbonize the energy system and build climate resilience.
However, for such an ambitious target as 1.5 C, 0.3 C can make a
substantial difference when calculating
how much remaining CO2 we can still emit without pushing us over 1.5 C of
warming when the remaining budget is calculated by simply subtracting off estimates of cumulative emissions to date from the ESM - based budgets for 1.5 C relative to preindustrial (i.e. the horizontal difference between the cross and the vertical dashed black line in the figure above).
And given the presense of MWP,
how do we know that the very same processes were not the primary or at least
substantial reason also for the recent, currently very minor
warming (i.e. some part of 0.7 C).
How much
warming is caused by a what amount of CO2 is more complicated but again there is a
substantial and strong body of work supporting the IPCC conclusions.
The far more serious question, of course, is
how much upheaval and human suffering would come with the
substantial warming that delegates here are contemplating.