Hurricane landfalling frequency is much less common than basin - wide occurrence, meaning that the U.S. landfalling hurricane record, while more reliable than the basin - wide record, suffers from degraded signal - to - noise characteristics for assessing trends.
Not exact matches
Speaking of AGW and
hurricanes and recent attempts to lenghthen the storm record with proxy data: I don't see how isotopic studies of the origin of rainfall waters in tree rings or sediment overwash studies can tell us accurately the past
frequency or intensity of
landfalling hurricanes.
Furthermore, the paper clearly states that it doesn't address
hurricane intensity, but only the
landfalling hurricane record — and as others have noted the
landfalling hurricane record doesn't really relate to the total
hurricane frequency.
They reported that «no catastrophic
hurricane of category 4 or 5 intensity has made
landfall in the Western Lake [northern Florida] area during the last 130 year documentary record» but «If future climatic changes, whether or not related to the anticipated greenhouse warming, lead to a return of a «hyperactive»
hurricane regime characteristic of the first millennium A.D., then the northeastern Gulf Coast is expected to experience a dramatic increase in the
frequency of strikes by catastrophic
hurricanes.»
U.S.
landfalling and North Atlantic
hurricanes: Statistical modeling of their
frequencies and ratios
Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, and J. A. Smith, 2012: U.S.
landfalling and North Atlantic
hurricanes: Statistical modeling of their
frequencies and ratios.
Moreover, 370 years of tropical cyclone data from the Lesser Antilles (the eastern Caribbean island chain that bisects the main development region for
landfalling U.S.
hurricanes) show no long - term trend in either power or
frequency but a 50 - to 70 - year wave pattern associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a mode of natural climate variability.
Anthony Watts makes this criticism on his indispensable blog, noting that as carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have risen, the
frequency of
hurricanes making
landfall in the U.S. has declined.
We have identified considerable interannual variability in the
frequency of global
hurricane landfalls; but within the resolution of the available data, our evidence does not support the presence of significant long - period global or individual basin linear trends for minor, major, or total
hurricanes within the period (s) covered by the available quality data.
This, says Crompton, should not be surprising as there has been no observed increase in
hurricane frequency and intensity at
landfall over the period for which normalization data is available.
(Note that this annual
frequency is specific to
landfalling segments and different from the annual
frequency of
landfalling events since some events have multiple
landfalling segments, e.g. in 2005
Hurricane Katrina made
landfall in both South Florida and Louisiana.)
If AGW doesn't intrinsically increase
hurricane frequency (just strength) but does increase El Nino events, then we should see a decrease in Gulf and Atlantic
hurricanes and
landfalls.
So if El Nino conditions become more frequent, I'd say the evidence suggests significant reductions in
hurricane frequency and
landfall.
Furthermore, we global models also consistently show an increase in el - nino
frequency, which is known to cause a major decline at least in major
hurricanes making
landfall in the U.S., and probably in major Atlantic
hurricanes in general.
We reanalyze the
frequency of
hurricanes making
landfall in the United States from 1900 - 1997 for the phases of the El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Natural Disasters News -
Hurricane and climate change: no long - term trend in
frequency, strength of
landfalling hurricanes.
Hurricane landfalls have not increased in the US in
frequency, intensity or normalized damage since at least 1900.