African crop yields:
The IPCC Synthesis Report states: «By 2020, in some countries, yields from rain - fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 %.»
There were many different representations of uncertainty (e.g., a range in models versus an expert judgment) in the TAR, and the consensus RF bar chart did not generate a total RF or uncertainties for use in the subsequent
IPCC Synthesis Report (IPCC, 2001b)(Chapters 2 and 7; Section 9.2).
The Structured Expert Dialogue (SED) should discuss
the IPCC Synthesis report in light of «progress made towards achieving the ultimate objective of the convention».
There are plenty, but for a conservative example see
IPCC Synthesis Report 2007 Table 5.1 which says to stay within 2 - 2.4 degrees global average temperature increase above pre-industrial (Copenhagen upper «low risk» target) and 425 - 490ppm CO2 - equivalent concentration at stabilisation, the required change in global CO2 emissions in 2050 (percent of 2000 emissions) is decline between 85 to 50 percent.
To get a figure here (based on
the IPCC synthesis report) I gather we need to make an assumption about future emissions long in the future, and as far as I remember the way this works is that we assume say constant emissions between now and 2100, and then a drop to zero, or rising emissions to 2100 and then a drop to zero, or emissions falling to zero tommorrow, or something along these lines.
It was a pity that the delegates at Bali didn't discuss this or that the recent
IPCC Synthesis report did not look in more detail at this recent warming standstill.
A copy of the most recent
IPCC Synthesis Report is included for your information.
The claim is examined in detail by blogger Richard North, who shows that the statement, repeated in a qualified way in
the IPCC Synthesis Report (which summarizes the three working group texts), has a murky scientific basis.
IPCC synthesis reports offer conservative projections of sea level increase based on assumptions about future behavior of ice sheets and glaciers, leading to estimates of sea level roughly following a linear upward trend mimicking that of recent decades.
Not exact matches
The
Synthesis Report, written under the leadership of
IPCC Chair R.K. Pachauri, forms the capstone of the
IPCC Fifth Assessment
Report.
These are among the key findings of the
Synthesis Report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (
IPCC) on Nov. 2, 2014.
Schneider, Stephen Stephen Schneider is the Lane Professor of Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies at Stanford University, an
IPCC Lead Author of all four Assessment and two
Synthesis Reports, and founder and Editor of the Journal Climatic Change.
In its recent
synthesis report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (
IPCC) says there is «medium confidence» that climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflict by amplifying poverty and economic shocks.
The
IPCC 2007
Synthesis Report stated:
World Governments have a
report —
IPCC concluded its final
synthesis report only last month.
Concentration at stabilization including GHGs and aerosols (2008 = 395 ppm) Peaking year of CO 2 emissions Change in CO 2 emissions in 2050 (percent of 2000 emissions) 2.0 -2.4350-400445-4902000-2015 − 85 to − 50 2.4 -2.8400-440490-5352000-2020 − 60 to − 30 2.8 -3.2440-485535-5902010-2030 − 30 to +5 3.2 -4.0485-570590-7102020-2060 +10 to +60 4.0 -4.9570-660710-8552050-2080 +25 to +85 4.9 -6.1660-790855-11302060-2090 +90 to +140 Data from:
IPCC, 2007:
Synthesis Report.
«The
synthesis report is the least read of the
IPCC reports in scientific circles but the most read
report in policy circles,» lead author Piers Forster told RTCC.
Now this specific paper of course came out after the
IPCC deadline for the
Synthesis Report.
But let's take a look at its
IPCC connections... It's chief editor, Anthony J. Broccoli, was a contributing author and expert reviewer for the
IPCC's 2007
report... Nathan Gillett, one of its editors, served in four separate AR4 capacities — as a lead author, an expert reviewer for both Working Group 1 and Working Group 2, and as an expert reviewer of the Synthesis R
report... Nathan Gillett, one of its editors, served in four separate AR4 capacities — as a lead author, an expert reviewer for both Working Group 1 and Working Group 2, and as an expert reviewer of the
Synthesis ReportReport.
For clarification - when we wrote in our comment about the
IPCC and the hockey - stick, we referred to the policy maker summary and the
synthesis report, in which only the hockey - stick were featured.
The
IPCC's first analysis was included in its fifth scientific assessment of climate change, published in September 2013 and reiterated in the
synthesis report released last Sunday.
The skeptics tend to pick out one aspect where there is perhaps not full agreement and fail to recognize that observations as well as models have shortcomings (witness the recent MSU [Microwave Sounding Unit]
report's findings of shortcomings in the observational techniques, etc.)-- and that our best understanding must be based on a coherent integration of the many, many studies into a comprehensive
synthesis — and this is what the
IPCC assessments (and others) do.
In its definitive scientific
synthesis report from November 2007, the
IPCC and its member governments — including the Bush administration — agree that action is very affordable:
This fax and memorandum dated February 6, 2001 from Exxon lobbyist Randy Randol to John Howard at the White House Center for Environmental Quality makes recommendations for changing the U.S. team working on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment and
Synthesis Report and delaying
IPCC proceedings.
I support this effort to improve the bibliographic record of citations and references throughout the
IPCC reports as well as the broader goal of increasing access to the documents, data, and code used to support the
IPCC review and
synthesis.
Each contribution was reviewed externally and within the editorial structure of Climatic Change for accuracy in its portrayal of historical context and underlying science, but every author has been allowed to express his or her own opinion about how well the
IPCC in general and the uncertainty guidance documents in particular have served
IPCC's various clients — readers of the full assessments, readers of the technical summaries, and readers who have confined their attention to the overarching summaries for policymakers and
synthesis reports.
The cover of the
IPCC's fourth assessment
report to the U.N., «Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report,» more frequently referred to a
report to the U.N., «Climate Change 2007:
Synthesis Report,» more frequently referred to a
Report,» more frequently referred to as AR4.
> This
Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (
IPCC).
The Southeastern Legal Foundation states: «Both Parry's own paper and Hulme's paper were known to and available to Professor Parry [co-chair of
IPCC Working Group II] in composing the WGII
Report and the
Synthesis Report.
When CH4, CO2, and N2O emissions are combined, our
synthesis suggests that reservoir water surfaces contribute 0.8 Pg CO2 equivalents per year over a 100 - year time span (fifth and ninety - fifth confidence interval: 0.5 — 1.2 Pg CO2 equivalents per year), or approximately 1.5 % of the global anthropogenic CO2 - equivalent emissions from CO2, CH4, and N2O
reported by the
IPCC (table 1; Ciais et al. 2013) and 1.3 % of global anthropogenic CO2 - equivalent emissions from well mixed GHGs overall (Myhre et al. 2013).
Marcel's
IPCC article focuses in the climate sensitivity shennanigans in the new AR5
synthesis report.
Hard copies of the Summaries for Policymakers, Technical Summaries of the Working Group contributions and the AR5
Synthesis Report in English and in the UN official languages, as well as electronic versions of the full
reports, can be obtained free of charge from the
IPCC Secretariat once they have been published and translated.
The
IPCC's 2007
report is the most comprehensive
synthesis of climate change science to date.
The
IPCC released summaries of the three working group documents over the course of 2007, culminating in the publication of the final «
synthesis report» at the end of the year.
So, when the
IPCC Chairman asked me to review the
Synthesis Report I did not bother.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (
IPCC)(2001) this multi-volume work was published as: (i) Climate Change 2001:
Synthesis Report; (ii) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis; (iii) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability; (iv) Climate Change 2001: Mitigation, Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The next opportunity for analysing
reporting of the
IPCC's activities will be the release of its
synthesis report on the fourth assessment, which is due in November at a conference in Valencia, Spain.
Unlike the fourth assessment
report, the
IPCC's most recent
synthesis document did not give a best estimate for climate sensitivity.
Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (
IPCC 2007) The AR4
Synthesis Report, Section 2 (4) Attribution of Climate Change.
The other obvious place is to read the various scientific
syntheses, starting with the
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report (for instance, read each chapter summary).
CB: Do you envisage the
synthesis report, then, as as an exploration of those solutions, or do you mean the
IPCC could make recommendations of its own?
M «the
IPCC reports are very valuable and the best resource out there for a
synthesis of available literature.»
Two other special
reports will be published before 2019, and the 6th
IPCC Global
Synthesis will be published in 2022.
Oddest of all, however, is the sum of # 30,417 still shown on the Defra website representing money paid to TERI Europe in 2007, via «Cambridge University», in respect of work done by an unnamed «head of unit» towards preparation of a «
Synthesis Report» summarising the contents of the
IPCC» s major Fourth Assessment
Report.
Referring to the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris (COP21) from 30 November — 11 December 2015, Ismail El Gizouli, Acting Chair of the
IPCC said, «The (
IPCC AR5)
Synthesis Report, distilling the work of hundreds of experts, is an invaluable tool and resource for policymakers as the world prepares to finalize a global agreement on climate change later this year.»
Next year, the
IPCC will adopt
reports on the impacts of global warming, strategies to fight it and a
synthesis of all three
reports.
In case you hadn't noticed, the
IPCC released its AR4
Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers on Saturday.
On Sunday, November 2nd, the
IPCC released the
Synthesis Report that brings together the findings of the three working groups contributing to the Fifth Assessment
Report (AR5).
This
Synthesis Report repeats with greater certainty findings that have figured prominently in earlier
IPCC assessments, that the Earth's climate is warming «unequivocally,» that the human influence in this process is «clear» and that the changing climate is very likely to bring impacts:» [w] ithout additional mitigation efforts beyond those in place today, and even with adaptation, warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very high risk of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts globally.»
«
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report», 2007, The contents of the reports of Working Groups 1, 2 and 3 and the Synthesis report are accessible from http://www.ip
Report», 2007, The contents of the
reports of Working Groups 1, 2 and 3 and the
Synthesis report are accessible from http://www.ip
report are accessible from http://www.
ipcc.ch/