But evidence to support the scientists» concerns about Earth's climate is growing — and getting stronger — every year,
the IPCC authors note.
Not exact matches
As it is explained in the «
Notes for Lead
Authors of the
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Addressing Uncertainties»: Likelihood may be based on quantitative analysis or an elicitation of expert views.
Side
note: the CEO of Sierra Club Canada sent my report to John M.R. Stone, a key
author for the Nobel Prize winning
IPCC report to see if I was accurate.
13 of
IPCC AR5 WG1, the
authors note that the two reasonably well - modeled components of the sea - level budget — thermal expansion and glaciers — add up to about 1.1 mm / y.
The
author notes that... «warming oceans account for about 35 — 40 % of that rate of sea level rise over the past two decades, according to the
IPCC AR5».
And — while I am at it — Guidance
Note for Lead
Authors of the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainty shows how subjectivism has been introduced and endorsed by
IPCC.
Issues
noted were that some
authors didn't follow
IPCC guidelines, not that the
IPCC guidelines were insufficient.
JC
note: Pursuant to Nic's post on «The
IPCC's alteration of Forster & Gregory's model - independent climate sensitivity results,» he has sent a letter to Gabi Hegerl, who was coordinating lead
author on chapter 9 of the
IPCC AR4.
«The language of denial: Text analysis reveals differences in language use between climate change proponents and skeptics» «Comment on «Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster» by J. A. Curry and P. J. Webster» «Guidance
note for lead
authors of the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on consistent treatment of uncertainties»
Deadlines for considering research in the
IPCC reports — a six - month limit — renders them out of date before they are published,
noted David Victor of the University of California, San Diego, and the
author of Global Warming Gridlock.
Prof David Stern, energy and environmental economist at the Australian National University and lead
author on the Drivers, Trends and Mitigation chapter of the
IPCC's working group three report, also chooses the 1976 Keeling paper, though he
notes:
Yet, as the
author notes, there is evidence that climate scientists in general and the
IPCC in particular tend to be conservative in their estimates.
The Guidance
Note for Lead
Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties impose upon the lead authors to assign subjective levels of confidence to their findings: «The AR5 will rely on two metrics for communicating the degree of certainty in key findings: 1 Confidence in the validity of a finding, based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (e.g., mechanistic understanding, theory, data, models, expert judgment) and the degree of agr
Authors of the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties impose upon the lead
authors to assign subjective levels of confidence to their findings: «The AR5 will rely on two metrics for communicating the degree of certainty in key findings: 1 Confidence in the validity of a finding, based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (e.g., mechanistic understanding, theory, data, models, expert judgment) and the degree of agr
authors to assign subjective levels of confidence to their findings: «The AR5 will rely on two metrics for communicating the degree of certainty in key findings: 1 Confidence in the validity of a finding, based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (e.g., mechanistic understanding, theory, data, models, expert judgment) and the degree of agreement.
«In considering any claim to scientific consensus, it seems appropriate to
note the following statement by Dr Benjamin Santer,
author of the 2007
IPCC report chapter on the detection of greenhouse warming — who is not a sceptic (to my knowledge): «It's unfortunate that many people read the media hype before they read the chapter on the detection of greenhouse warming.
The Hockey Stick advanced by Mann et al. (1998) and revised by the
authors in 1999 was, as you
note, the featured hallmark of
IPCC's TAR.
A set of terms to describe uncertainties in current knowledge is common to all parts of the
IPCC Fourth Assessment, based on the Guidance
Notes for Lead
Authors of the
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Addressing Uncertainties1, produced by the
IPCC in July 2005.
He
noted:» [The
IPCC was] meticulous in insisting that the final decision on whether to accept particular review comments should reside with chapter Lead
Authors.»
The
IPCC responded with «Guidance
Note for Lead
Authors of the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties» https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B1gFp6Ioo3akNnNCaVpfR1dKTGM/edit?pli=1
In the Guidance
Note for Lead
Authors of the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties on page 3 there is Table 1 titled «Likelihood Scale.»
Note that a new practice at the
IPCC is the back - to - back holding of an expert meeting on scenarios with lead
author meetings, to ensure coordination with the scientific community which is developing a new generation of socioeconomic scenarios for climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation research.
Including: Annex 1 - Tasks and Responsibilities for Lead
Authors, Coordinating Lead
Authors, Contributing
Authors, Expert Reviewers and Review Editors of
IPCC Reports and Government Focal Points; Annex 2 - Procedure on the Use of Literature in
IPCC reports; and Annex 3 -
IPCC Protocol for Addressing Possible Errors in
IPCC Assessment Reports, Synthesis Reports, Special Reports and Methodology Reports Appendix B... covers «Financial Procedures for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (
IPCC)» (explanatory
notes to the Financial Procedures for the
IPCC)