It seem overly coincidental hower, that
the IPCC conclusions that were found in error were the ones that we the most catastrophic.
The changing of
the IPCC conclusions does far more to support the positions of the skeptics, than the alarmists.
Although it is hard to argue that any one CRU Email or computer file notation proves
the IPCC conclusions wrong, taken as a whole they do strongly suggest two conclusions: First, the CRU and many of its associates (and Email recipients) elsewhere (henceforth CRU et al.), are very tightly tied to the IPCC both in influence and belief and do not appear to be paragons of scientific objectivity and ethics.
Needless to say, the actual number mentioned in the report has no bearing on
any IPCC conclusions and has nothing to do with climate science, and it is questionable whether it should even be counted as an IPCC error.
Samanta et al. claimed to have contradicted a 2007 paper by Scott Saleska et al., and to have thereby overturned
some IPCC conclusions.
Curry described her transition from a scientist who felt that it was the responsible thing to do to support
the IPCC conclusions to someone who is «about 50 % a denier».
And in spite of being compatible with certain alarmist positions,
the IPCC conclusions do not support a major anthropogenic attribution to temperature changes prior to ~ 30 years ago.
So this result does not contradict
the IPCC conclusions at all.
How much warming is caused by a what amount of CO2 is more complicated but again there is a substantial and strong body of work supporting
the IPCC conclusions.
[First hint:
the IPCC conclusions or assumptions, and their Assessment Reports, are not remotely the \ opinions of small groups of people.
We compiled UE names comprehensively from 12 of the most prominent statements criticizing
the IPCC conclusions (n = 472; SI Materials and Methods).
I would like to see a review of
the IPCC conclusions carried out by a dozen or so scientists and statisticians in good standing.
Isn't it time to do a PCA of «climate science» publications to determine the relative frequencies of papers positive, neutral and negative to
IPCC conclusions together with trends over time?
Sensenbrenner also released a Republican committee staff report — EPA's Endangerment Finding Relies Heavily on Flawed IPCC Report (pdf)-- to document the lack of scientific basis for
the IPCC conclusions and the political nature of the EPA finding.
I am very grateful that these drafts have been leaked, as these drafts provide important insights into the reasoning behind
the IPCC conclusions and confidence levels.
You can not both accept
the IPCC conclusions that humans are changing the climate and simultaneously claim that climate change is either not occurring or is natural.
I believe Dr. Curry is very angry at the IPCC leadership because she believes they betrayed her and other scientists who took
the IPCC conclusions on faith, repeated them, and then found out that some in the leadership had been cooking the books.
We will hear their eloquent criticism of
the IPCC conclusions illustrated by coverage of their research work.
For a summary of
the IPCC conclusions on these issue see IPCC, Ethics, and Climate Change: Will IPCC's Latest Report Transform How National Climate Change Policies Are Justified?.
It is not as if the fundamental problems many scientists see with
IPCC conclusions have been comprehensively addressed before now.
Taken together,
these IPCC conclusions are a wake - up call.
IPCC conclusions about sea level rise rely substantially on models.
... Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental - average temperatures, temperature extremes, and wind patterns The ASA endorses
the IPCC conclusions
«The basis of most of
the IPCC conclusions on anthropogenic causes and on projections of climatic change is the assumption of low level of CO2 in the pre-industrial atmosphere.
[6] A number of individuals who disagree with previous
IPCC conclusions took an active part in the review process [7], and others registered as reviewers, but did not submit review comments.
Where has Steve McIntyre explicitly detailed by line item in IPCC reports how his audits have actually affected
IPCC conclusions in Mann hockey stick graphs?
First, a general point — to sustain a conclusion need not require 100 percent accuracy, and so the issue regarding
IPCC conclusions is not whether estimates of forcing, internal variability, etc. are «accurate», but whether they are accurate enough to justify IPCC assessments of twentieth century warming.
Finally, I will link to politicized
IPCC conclusions.
Comparison of 11 models: Friedlingstein et al. (2006) for the 2007
IPCC conclusions see Meehl et al. (2007) pp. 789 - 93.
He admits reticence is appropriately recognised as an asset that makes
IPCC conclusions authoritative and widely accepted.
This has led to doubts about the validity of
IPCC conclusions, and to serious difficulty in making national and international policy regarding climate change.
As a result of my analyses that challenge
IPCC conclusions, I have been called a denier by other climate scientists, and most recently by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse.
It won't change
the IPCC conclusions in the slightest.
At the same time, somehow
the IPCC conclusions have gotten more firm that there is a signal and it's likely due to man.
«There are no valid surveys of 97 % of alleged climate scientists endorsing
IPCC conclusions» and «the claims reflect partisan activist bias in the framing of the clearly distorted 97 % propaganda media talking point» and «only the uninformed and partisan inclined would attempt to invoke debunked 97 % consensus claims».
The IPCC conclusions do not dictate what the policy response should be, but it should inform it.
Pekka — My ability to judge
IPCC conclusions, based on information I've acquired outside of the IPCC reports, is fairly good for WG1, modest for WG2, and very poor for WG3.
The basis for
the IPCC conclusions, those of many National Academy of Sciences panels are based on the «balance of evidence» from all manner of places and areas of study.]
As I understand it (perhaps incorrectly), Dr. Emanuel used climate models supporting
the IPCC conclusions, and he added to the models some code that generated tropical cyclones where conditions were favorable.
This is substantially lower than
the IPCC conclusions from 2007.
The conflict that has ensued over the high confidence levels in
the IPCC conclusions and the attempts to establish a premature consensus is described by Montford's book.
My reading of the evidence suggests clearly that
the IPCC conclusions are an accurate assessment of the issue.
If so, this has little or no relevance to the detection or attribution of climate change and thus no importance to the main
IPCC conclusions.
... Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental - average temperatures, temperature extremes, and wind patterns The ASA endorses
the IPCC conclusions
Thus, on the natural science side of things, we really did nothing more than, once again, bring
the IPCC conclusions into the public arena.
* Indeed, possible errors in the amplitudes of the external forcing and a models response are accounted for by scaling the signal patterns to best match observations, and thus the robustness of
the IPCC conclusion is not slaved to uncertainties in aerosol forcing or sensitivity being off.
[ANDY REVKIN says: Keep in mind that my «point of no dissent» is not
the IPCC conclusion (that most warming since 1950 is very likely human driven).
So let me ask you again, for the n - th time: Which do you consider the strongest evidence in support of
the IPCC conclusion?
In a posting to the APS forum, editor Jeffrey Marque explains,» There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with
the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution.»
That leads to
the IPCC conclusion that it is «very likely» that anthropogenic factors have «made a substantial contribution to upper ocean warming» using a method independent of observation estimates of the value of individual fluxes.