Yes, and the following point is important: The assumptions made by Christy and McNider 2017 (and MacRae 2018) are essentially the SAME (mostly false) assumptions as those of
the IPCC modelers: 1.
Call a spade a spade — Require
all IPCC modelers and politicians use «global warming» when calling for reductions in CO2.
It is about time that the discussion moved on from the useless speculations of
the IPCC modelers to forecasts of the timing and extent of the coming cooling based the idea of identifying quasi - repetitive, quasi cyclic patterns in the temperature and driver data provided in a series of my posts at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com Here are the conclusions of the most recent post.
It is about time that the discussion moved on from the useless speculations of
the IPCC modelers to forecasts of the timing and extent of the coming cooling based the idea of identifying quasi - repetitive, quasi cyclic patterns in the temperature and driver data
Fossil fuel consumption rates will slowly diminish over the coming decades as fossil fuels are gradually depleted, and the resultant atmospheric and oceanic CO2 is predicted by
IPCC modelers to END glaciation cycles and thus, to open much of Canada and Siberia to greatly improved agriculture and forestry.
Just one more example, although there are many more, is sufficient to illustrate how
the IPCC modelers know their models don't work, but also why they can't work.
Not exact matches
The
modelers and
IPCC's use of these models as anomalies underscores a basic problem with the ensemble, the absolute temperature values which impact TOA.
Because for the
IPCC and the
modelers it's not good news.
It seems to me that the «
modelers» or the AGW crowd has to admit soon that the 2.0 - 4.0 K / CO2 doubling is way overestimated in the
IPCC AR4 and come up with more moderate assumptions.
If
modelers really are waiting for the
IPCC to provide leadership in either illuminating or fixing one of the most serious problems with their work, then I think I just lost my last shred of respect for these fools.
The
IPCC's climate
modelers purposefully designed the computer models to implicate human CO2 emissions as the major culprit for global warming and climate change.
The World Bank and the child of the UNFCCC, that is
IPCC are similar: their
modelers have fallen in love with their creations.
Just two weeks ago, a top
IPCC climate
modeler dropped a bombshell and told the world that global warming is
Unfortunately for the
IPCC and its climate
modelers, these simulated climate predictions were wrong.
Which explains why climate
modeler Andrew Weaver thinks it's perfectly OK to be a candidate for the Green Party of British Columbia (one of Canada's provinces) at the same time that he's serving as a lead author for the
IPCC.
These quack science models are further skewed by the
modelers» doctrinaire anti-carbon passions, the vetting of their results by the corrupt bureaucracy of the U.N.'s
IPCC and the dependence of their salaries on the expectations of funding agencies.
Small wonder, then, that the
modelers» computer «reconstructions» of the planet's past climate conveniently wiped out the well - documented three - centuries - long Medieval Warming Period, as well as the subsequent 500 years of Little Ice Age — nor is it surprising that their terrifying computer prognostications in the
IPCC's 2001 Third Assessment failed to predict the next decade's absence of any global warming trend at all.
The
IPCC — Andrew Weaver, who is like the best climate
modeler in Canada or one of the best, said you know, meter, two meters at the outside is all that he can show in models in this century.
The person then in charge of the relevant Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (
IPCC) chapter was Kevin Trenberth — who is described in a recent interview as a «climate
modeler and
IPCC insider.»
In 2012, PhD meteorologist Dr Roy Spencer detailed the problems that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (
IPCC) climate models, and thus climate
modeler experts, were facing concerning Daubert Standard acceptability.
In accordance with a decision of the
IPCC Bureau in 1998 to release draft scenarios to climate
modelers for their input in the Third Assessment Report, and subsequently to solicit comments during the open process, one marker scenario was chosen from each of four of the scenario groups based on the storylines.
Inasmuch as essentially all of the
IPCC claims of AGW attribution, the projections of future climate changes and the resulting recommendations to policymakers are based on GCM simulations, this is a fairly damning conclusion that will not make many
modelers (and certainly not
IPCC) happy.
3 brave researchers finally figure out what has been obvious to mathematical
modelers (who know to backtest models on past, known, data) since day one of the
IPCC extravaganza - we could double atmospheric CO2 and the chance of the planet tipping into a 4.5 C temperature increase (current catastrophe scenario being peddled) would still remain under 1 %.
Furthermore if you add the knowledge that models have been «recentered» to fit exactly the average value of the 1900 - 1950 period, so that the agreement of the average is granted from the beginning, the overall quality of the fit is even more questionable — Note that if it is in the
IPCC report, it is probably the best that
modelers can produce.
This will still be a challenge for the global climate
modelers to explain, since the
IPCC perspective of global warming requires a more - or-less monotonic increase in Joules within the climate system, in the absence of a major volcanic eruption (i.e. see A Litmus Test For Global Warming - A Much Overdue Requirement).
Note: During the approval process of the Summary for Policymakers at the 5th Session of WGIII of the
IPCC from 8 - 11 March 2000 in Katmandu, Nepal, it was decided to combine the A1C and A1G groups into one «fossil intensive» group A1FI in contrast to the non-fossil group A1T, and to select two illustrative scenarios from these two A1 groups to facilitate use by
modelers and policy makers.
However, it is instructive to note that a simple model of a linear trend plus sine wave matches history so well, particularly since it assumes such a small contribution from CO2 (yet matches history well) and since in prior
IPCC reports, the
IPCC and most
modelers simply refused to include cyclic functions like AMO and PDO in their models.
To successfully develop geoengineering technologies is going to require the efforts of people from a wide range of backgrounds, just like the
IPCC reports that aren't all prepared by climate
modelers.
One should note that while the
IPCC asked
modelers to look at a series of different cases, the only substantial difference between these cases is the volume of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses produced.
The
IPCC and climate
modelers don't claim otherwise.
Note, however, that even the
IPCC admits that it and all of its
modelers really do not understand (even a little bit) the effect of global warming on rainfall and drought.