The authors of the different chapters of
IPCC seems to work rather independenty with the references since the abbreviations of journal names differ between chapters.
The biggest problem with
the IPCC seems to be that policy - makers don't take its conclusions sufficiently seriously.
Yet, as drafted
the IPCC seems intent on relying instead on its models with their high sensitivity assumptions instead.
The IPCC seems to be following a similar initial path.
IPCC seems to regard model runs as climate experiments.
Since
the IPCC seems unwilling to change even the most egregious errors in AR4 this means that any subsequent comments will be ignored.
But its a situation very much of their own making, to - date its clear that FOI requests are treated with contempt by organization such as the CRU, while
the IPCC seems to be going out of way to become less transparent in its dealings.
«All things» usually not equal, and negative feedbacks (which
IPCC seems to preclude) seem to me as likely as positive feedbacks (which
IPCC seems to «guarantee»).
In its reports,
the IPCC seems to reveal itself to be similarly clueless.
The IPCC seems to have directed the jury and the flag model might be a good way for the IPCC to summarise the evidence for or against.
Even
IPCC seems already to move in that direction as it has begun to emphasize adaptation to natural climate events, though there even still is an «institutional» belief in strengthening influences of potential anthropogenic warming.
As I have noted before,
the IPCC seems to have two options, both of which are bad.
And then there's the wasted paper that
the IPCC seems to be in favor of.
IPCC seems to think we have just 7 more years to reverse things.
The IPCC seem to agree with Ray (or vice versa) because their «confidence» in the validity of AGW theories has increased from 95 % % to 97 %, despite the failure of the AGW models.
Unfortunately
the IPCC seem to make sure the evidence complies with the «consensus» policy.
is because
the IPCC seemed to be pretty certain that they could.
Not exact matches
Given the conservative
IPCC estimates, the need for such solutions
seems evident.
«Geden fails to understand the energy system modeling literature, and
seems not to have read the
IPCC assessment on transformation pathways.
The Guardian ran a useful piece last week laying out some of the options for reform; one particular gripe that many
seem to agree on is that the
IPCC effort has become too large and unwieldy.
The good news is that extreme global warming by century's end, anything above 3 degrees C or more,
seems «extremely unlikely,» in the words of the
IPCC.
On the limited information available to me, they
seem quite promising — but it certainly would have been helpful in making judgments on this point if the
IPCC had modelled a low - medium population projection (as in the A1 and B1 scenarios) which made more moderate assumptions about growth in output and energy use.
For Michaels, it
seems to be untrue: this is 3/4 oC, by implication over the coming century, which is well below the
IPCC range.
Being off by a half century concerning data that is less than two centuries old
seems to me to be «in conflict,» as the
IPCC put it.
However, for the period of 1950 - 2000, there
seems to be a consensus that natural forcing (solar, volcano) as a whole is near zero or slightly negative (
IPCC 2001) on the multi-decadal timescale.
It
seems to me that prospectus - like disclosure must become the standard in climate science, certainly for documents like
IPCC reports (which are like scientific prospectuses), but even for journals.
It
seems he is walking a political tightrope so as to retain his
IPCC position.
If emissions continue down a mid-range path — one consistent with the direction current policies and market trends
seem to be taking us — the new results indicate a higher likely rise of 0.7 to 1.3 meters (2.2 to 4.1 feet), compared to 0.4 to 0.8 meters (1.4 to 2.5 feet) in the
IPCC - consistent estimate.
I think that, if it is easy to conciliate a 3 °C sensitivity with -1.84 W / m2, it
seems impossible with -0.9 W / m2 (the new
IPCC mean forcing), maybe a 2 °C sensitivity works better.
While «everything to do with CO2» was a figure of speech meant to push the point,
IPCC certainly
seem lean heavily in that direction.
First
IPCC report says world has been warming and future warming
seems likely.
For Michaels, it
seems to be untrue: this is 3/4 oC, by implication over the coming century, which is well below the
IPCC range.
So it
seems the
IPCC Working Group I actually felt that glacial data conflicted with Mann et al. (1999) and Jones et at.
The document up at CEI strongly resembles the * N *
IPCC report sponsored by the Heartland Institute, a paper that
seems to have been peer reviewed by the, «I like it, don't you Mr. Co-author» method.
On the limited information available to me, they
seem quite promising — but it certainly would have been helpful in making judgments on this point if the
IPCC had modelled a low - medium population projection (as in the A1 and B1 scenarios) which made more moderate assumptions about growth in output and energy use.
The news on climate change
seemed bad enough in 2007, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (
IPCC) announced in their fourth assessment report that «warming of the climate system is unequivocal,» that humans were «very likely» to blame, and that if we keep pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, climate will «very likely» change much more than it did in the 20th century.
IPCC 2007 had an order of magnitude less; Gray et al (2010) increased that to about 0.24 W / m2 (this depends on where you choose your start date too), but the Shapiro results don't
seem right...
I
seem to remember somebody calling for resignations because the
IPCC highlighted a particular «what if» scenario in a press release on renewable energy not that long ago.
Government in the U.K. and other places outside of the United States
seem to have supported the consensus
IPCC findings on global warming, which has kept their skeptics at bay in their countries for the most part (except perhaps in Australia which is heavily influenced by interests in the U.S.).
Since the latest data from around the globe
seems to indicate that the Klimakatastrophe is progressing even more rapidly than the worst - case scenario of the
IPCC (e.g. increasing glacier melting rate, decreasing oceans» ability to absorb CO2), I tend to believe Lovelock's predictions are spot on.
And lest anyone believes that she's been unnecessarily and unfairly persecuted merely for disagreeing with RC, the
IPCC, etc., it
seems to me that the majority of criticism being directed her way is intended to help her gain some modicum of awareness of her own patterns of behavior.
Perhaps realclimate's «bias» consists of reporting on what the papers actually say, rather than reporting on what they say and twisting it around to be some new attack on the
IPCC and AGW... which the Pielkes
seem to be joining the club for doing any chance they can get
Similarly, the famous «burning embers» figure from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (
IPCC) says exactly the same thing — if it is some natural ecosystems that you care about then we are already way past the point of no return, if it is Greenland or parts of West Antarctica then the «guardrail» is different (but also, it
seems, beyond us).
The
IPCC's attribution statement does not
seem logically consistent with the uncertainty in climate sensitivity.
Why do advising bodies, such as
IPCC, always
seem to rely on optimistic forecasts, based on out - of - date models, in order to inform politicians of the situation?
One strategem of the attorney for the oil companies, Mr. Boutrous, that of accepting the
IPCC reports as the gold standard for climate research,
seems rather brilliant.
The difference between Pat and the
IPCC is that he
seems convinced the real world's climate sensitivity is exactly at the bottom end of the
IPCC's range.
As you point out, the
IPCC does not explicitly state that the SRES scenarios all are of equal likelihood, but, given what they do tell us (as you indicated) 1) we should not rely on the frequency distribution to develop probability of occurrence, and 2) «No judgment is offered in this report as to the preference for any of the scenarios and they are not assigned probabilities of occurrence,» it
seem to me that the best we can do is to make the simple assumption that they are equally likely (with departures from equal probability randomly distributed).
Here's some initial look - see into those infamous quotes that
seem to contradict the very purpose of the
IPCC's recent disaster management report: