Sentences with phrase «ipcc uncertainty in climate sensitivity»

Not exact matches

I agree (as does IPCC) that there is uncertainty, as stated, in the climate sensitivity, but you are completely unjustified in your claim that the cosmic - ray correlation (for which there is still no sound physical basis or quantified mechanism) supports the lower end of the sensitivity range.

It is not all that earthshaking that the numbers in Schmittner et al come in a little low: the 2.3 ºC is well within previously accepted uncertainty, and three of the IPCC AR4 models used for future projections have a climate sensitivity of 2.3 ºC or lower, so that the range of IPCC projections already encompasses this possibility.

The IPCC's attribution statement does not seem logically consistent with the uncertainty in climate sensitivity.

The IPCC range, on the other hand, encompasses the overall uncertainty across a very large number of studies, using different methods all with their own potential biases and problems (e.g., resulting from biases in proxy data used as constraints on past temperature changes, etc.) There is a number of single studies on climate sensitivity that have statistical uncertainties as small as Cox et al., yet different best estimates — some higher than the classic 3 °C, some lower.

How is the persistent factor of 3 uncertainty in climate sensitivity consistent with the IPCC confidence levels?

Contribution from working group I to the fifth assessment report by IPCC TS.5.4.1 Projected Near - term Changes in Climate Projections of near - term climate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle varClimate Projections of near - term climate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle varclimate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle variables.

It seems to me that the issue is not so much that the IPCC AR4 chapter 9 authors have made an error in determination of the sensitivity in Fig 9.20, but rather that there is unacknowledged structural uncertainty in their methods for determining climate sensitivity (both statistical and physical / conceptual).

«uncertainty» (in the IPCC attribution of natural versus human - induced climate changes, IPCC's model - based climate sensitivity estimates and the resulting IPCC projections of future climate) is arguably the defining issue in climate science today.

In context of the way climate sensitivity is defined by the IPCC, uncertainty in climate sensitivity is decreasing as errors in previous observational estimates are identified and eliminated and model estimates seem to be converging morIn context of the way climate sensitivity is defined by the IPCC, uncertainty in climate sensitivity is decreasing as errors in previous observational estimates are identified and eliminated and model estimates seem to be converging morin climate sensitivity is decreasing as errors in previous observational estimates are identified and eliminated and model estimates seem to be converging morin previous observational estimates are identified and eliminated and model estimates seem to be converging more.

Changes in cloudiness in a warmer climate can be either a negative or positive feedback and the uncertainty in this feedback is the major source of uncertainty in the IPCC's estimate of climate sensitivity.

Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived based on the best estimates and uncertainty ranges for forcing provided in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Scientific Report (AR5).

Knutti and Hegerl in the November, 2008 Natural Geoscience paper, The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes, says various observations favor a climate sensitivity value of about 3 degrees C, with a likely range of about 2 — 4.5 degrees C per the following graphic whereas the current IPCC uncertainty is range is between 1.5 - 4.5 degrees C.