Sentences with phrase «ipcc upper bounds»

I think it would be hard to find anyone familiar with the subject who thinks the IPCC upper bounds are a good guide for policy makers... What were they thinking of?

Not exact matches

I ran the model again and again, for ECS values ranging from the IPCC's lower bound (1.5 degrees C) to its upper bound (4.5 degrees C).

The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment reported a likely upper SLR bound in the year 2100 near 0.6 m (meter).

My guess is it would show reality as being at the upper bound of scenarios, completely obliterating the argument is the IPCC is overstating the case, and prove that, if anything, the IPCC IV was quite conservative.

In many IPCC discussions I have noticed a strange asymmetry: people were very concerned about possibly erring on the high side (e.g., the upper bound of sea level rise possibly being criticised as «alarmist»), and not very concerned about erring on the low side (or some even regarding this as a virtue of being «cautious»).

Our results indicate therefore that the IPCC's climate projections overestimate the upper - bound of climate change.»

The IPCC estimates a likely upper bound for sea level rise, for instance, at about a meter, but under much stronger warming scenarios.

I think that a good case can be made that they have computed a reasonable upper bound, using the best information provided by IPCC..

On the first, my reading is that all A&H were seeking to show was that if you wish to use Bayesian techniques to achieve posterior probabilities for climate sensitivity then using uniform priors as per IPCC Fig 9.20 leads to results that are very sensitive to the upper bound.

The IPCC AR4 states that equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely (> 66 %) to lie in the range 2 — 4.5 C and very unlikely (< 10 %) to lie below 1.5 C. Annan and Hargreaves demonstrate that the the widely - used approach of a uniform prior fails to adequately represent «ignorance» and generates rather pathological results which depend strongly on the selected upper bound.

(Note, it is a hypothetical 90 % confidence interval because the IPCC do not give the upper bound, instead giving the upper bound of a hypothetical 80 % confidence interval, ie, 6oC.)

Zeke's interval for sensitivity (cum feedbacks) from 1.5 ° to 4.5 ° comes from the IPCC AR4, and to that Judy adds a more generous upper bound of 6 °.

The simulated distribution, using the IPCC RF error bounds, is also shown in the figure at the top of the post (upper plot).

The right - hand side of the IPCC AR5 range is actually the 90 % upper bound (the IPCC does not actually state the value for the upper 95 percent confidence bound of their estimate).

Based on a TCS upper bound of 1.6 o C that we determined from actual data, we compute a 2.9 o C upper bound for GHG ECS that is below the mid-point of the latest IPCC GHG ECS uncertainty range of 1.5 < ECS < 4.5 o C and 71 percent lower than maximum 10o C ECS values obtained from the IWG statistical distribution for ECS.

I ran the model again and again, for ECS values ranging from the IPCC's lower bound (1.5 degrees C) to its upper bound (4.5 degrees C).