The explanation for why Z T254K changes as a response to increasing
IR opacity of the atmosphere is that emissions from a constant height will to a greater degree become re-absorbed when the air becomes increasingly opaque at or above this level.
Convective circulation both cools the surface and transports energy high above the level of maximum atmospheric
IR opacity, where it can be radiated to space.
However, it is much easier to figure out what happens when you add more radiative gases to an atmosphere that already has them: And, the answer is that it increases
the IR opacity of the atmosphere, which increases the altitude of the effective radiating level and hence means the emission is occurring from a lower - temperature layer, leading to a reduction of emission that is eventually remedied by the atmosphere heating up so that radiative balance at the top - of - the - atmosphere is restored.
For an atmosphere containing radiative gases, convective circulation continuously transports energy above the level of maximum
IR opacity.
That was sort of what I was alluding to with Neal, but didn't have the physics knowledge to backup: if the GHGs aren't the only players in the absorption and emission game then
the IR opacity model may have a few leaks?
I suppose some numbers would help, like increase of CO2 by 100 ppm, increases
IR opacity by blah, raises photosphere altitude by blah.
The main points of that solution are to show that (1) for making temperature increase with height, it's not enough to have a stratospheric absorber; you need one with the right vertical profile, and (2) you can get stratospheric cooling in response to increased
IR opacity because you get rid of more of the absorbed solar locally.
Not exact matches
However, it's simple enough to argue (not conclusively) that the the «null» hypothesis should be a postive effect rather than zero: our understanding of atmospheric physics predicts that adding CO2 to the atmosphere increases its clear - sky
opacity to certain bands of
IR radiation.
Increased
opacity means that some
IR energy that would otherwise have escaped to space is retained (either thermalised or re-radiated back into the Earth system).
E.g. radiative balance, increased atmospheric
opacity to
IR, back radiated etc..
That is, the Normal operating of the system would be this: When you increase the
opacity of the system to
IR, you expect (and it was predicted) that the system would run hotter.
The long - term trends identified in the reanalyses and the OLR measurements are nevertheless consistent with the notion of increasing
opacity for
IR light, elevation of the OLR emission level, and convective activity.
I just can't see where you get the idea that absorption — which is isotropic — and emission — also isotropic — gives rise to a one - way
opacity to
IR radiation in the lower atmosphere.