Earth is just past the 2003 + / - peak of a millennial cycle and the current cooling trend will likely continue until the next Little
Ice Age minimum at about 2650.
Not exact matches
While the overlap during deglaciations is large (which makes it near impossible to make any estimates of relative forcings), during the start of the last
ice age, there was no overlap: CO2 started to decrease (some 40 - 50 ppmv) when the temperature was already near it's
minimum.
The best known shorter - term variations are sunspot cycles, especially the Maunder
minimum, which is associated with the coldest part of the Little
Ice Age.
Indeed, one such episode known as the Maunder
minimum may have triggered the Little
Ice Age from 1645 to 1715 CE, when crops failed in Northern Europe and London's Thames River stayed frozen in June.
It has long been suspected that the low solar activity during the Maunder
Minimum was one of the causes of the Little
Ice Age, although other factors like a small drop in greenhouse gas concentrations around 1600 and strong volcanic eruptions during that time likely played a role as well.
The Maunder
Minimum falls within the climatically cooler period of the «Little
Ice Age», during which temperatures were particularly low over continents in the Northern hemisphere (especially in winter).
The last time this happened was 400 years ago — and it signaled a solar event known as a «Maunder
Minimum,» along with the start of what we now call the «Little
Ice Age.»
The average temperature increase is real and the effects are happening much more rapidly than anything seen in the past 2000 years at a
minimum and probably since the last
ice age around 12000 years ago.
Global mean temperature since the last
ice age has oscillated quasi-periodically between about + / - 1 % of its mean; over that time, the mean has slightly declined, as have the maxima and
minima of the excursions.
From that we can calculate a robust response time of 24 years — and try running that against the Little
Ice Age and the Maunder
Minimum.
I have been eagerly awaiting commentary on the recent hyping of a new sunspot
minimum and ensuing Little
Ice Age by the denial side.
While the overlap during deglaciations is large (which makes it near impossible to make any estimates of relative forcings), during the start of the last
ice age, there was no overlap: CO2 started to decrease (some 40 - 50 ppmv) when the temperature was already near it's
minimum.
The change in cloud cover between the Maunder
Minimum (Little
Ice Age) and today would make a difference of ~ 7 W / m2, pretty close to the 7 W / m2 which is lacking at the depth of the previous glacial...
During the little
ice age, solar activity was at a
minimum.
From the middle of the 17th century to the early 18th, a period known as the Maunder
Minimum, sunspots were extremely rare, and the reduced activity coincided with lower temperatures in what is known as the Little
Ice Age.
The argument really ought to be phrased as «What caused the Little
Ice Age cold period to be coincident with the Maunder
Minimum / Dalton
Minimum if anything?»
Ice ages are generally triggered by minima in high - latitude NH summer insolation, enabling winter snowfall to persist through the year and therefore accumulate to build NH glacial ice shee
Ice ages are generally triggered by
minima in high - latitude NH summer insolation, enabling winter snowfall to persist through the year and therefore accumulate to build NH glacial
ice shee
ice sheets.
The onset of the deep bicentennial
minimum of TSI is expected in 2042 ± 11, that of the 19th Little
Ice Age in the past 7500 years — in 2055 ± 11.»
Note: This post has been adapted into the new rebuttal to the myth «A grand solar
minimum could trigger another
ice age»
NSIDC (Stroeve et al), 4.2 (range 3.4 to 5.0), Statistical We use the survival of
ice of different
ages to statistically predict the 2013
minimum.
It also works in hindsight, explaining the temperature decline associated with the Dalton
Minimum, as well as the Maunder
Minimum and Little
Ice Age.
We can be pretty comfortable that there won't be another full
ice age for several thousand years but we should be rather uncomfortable that the solar cycle 24 is mimicking the Dalton Minimum that brought an extension of the Little Ice Age around 1810 from which we were recovering but might return
ice age for several thousand years but we should be rather uncomfortable that the solar cycle 24 is mimicking the Dalton Minimum that brought an extension of the Little Ice Age around 1810 from which we were recovering but might return
age for several thousand years but we should be rather uncomfortable that the solar cycle 24 is mimicking the Dalton
Minimum that brought an extension of the Little
Ice Age around 1810 from which we were recovering but might return
Ice Age around 1810 from which we were recovering but might return
Age around 1810 from which we were recovering but might return to.
The Livingston and Penn Solar data indicate that a faster drop to the Maunder
Minimum Little
Ice Age temperatures might even be on the horizon.
An interesting question is this: Suppose we enter a Maunder - type
minimum, but temperatures do not fall into Little -
Ice -
Age territory, would you then 1) discount the Sun or 2) say the data is wrong, made - up, manipulated, impossible, etc or 3) admit that the Sun is not a major driver, but still a minor player
Grand Solar
Minimum - mini
ice age.
These
minima occurred during the Little
Ice Age which saw temperatures plunge after the relatively high temperatures of the Medieval Warm Period.
This isn't proof that the world is entering a global cooling cycle, but the absence of sunspots is the most prolonged in a century, and scientists say the reduced solar activity is reminiscent of the Maunder
Minimum, between 1645 and 1715, when the Northern Hemisphere suffered through the coldest weather, worst storms and shortest growing seasons of the Little
Ice Age..
Professors Raymond Bradley and Philip Jones, for instance, had said with great certainty in one of their books that the geologist Francois Emile Matthes (1874 — 1948) had originated the term «Little
Ice Age» which is roughly coincidental with the period of the Maunder
Minimum.
Many scientists actually see many parralles with the «m, aunder
minimum» type low of the depth of the Little
ice age, and are predicting from 20 - 50 % chance of a little
ice age.
The temperature seems remarkable today, but was consistent with an earth recovering from the nadir of the Little
Ice Age (LIA) in the 1680s set back by the cooling associated with the Dalton
Minimum.
The Livingston and Penn Solar data indicate that a faster drop to the Maunder
Minimum Little
Ice Age temperatures might even be on the horizon.If either of these actually occur there would be a much more rapid and economically disruptive cooling than that forecast above which may turn out to be a best case scenario.»
During the Little
Ice Age, the Great Aletsch advanced to its greatest length of the Holocene, in rhythm with a series of 4 documented solar
minimums.
During the solar
minimums of the Little
Ice Age, tropical oceans dropped by as much as 1 °C degree cooler than today.
The Maunder
Minimum was responsible for the Little
Ice Age and lasted for 70 years.
«A peer - reviewed paper [Krivova et al.] published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) show a significant increase since the Maunder
minimum in the 1600's during the Little
Ice Age and shows further increases over the 19th and 20th centuries... Use of the Stefan - Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W / m2 increase in solar activity could account for an approximate.44 C global temperature increase... A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum increased by almost 50 % over the 400 years since the Maunder
minimum... This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels.
(See: NYT: Missing Its Spots: «Sun may be on verge of falling into an extended slumber» — could cause «extended chilly period» — «Cosmic ray levels correlate well with climate extending back thousands of years» — July 21, 2009 & Also see: «Sun Sleeps»: Danish Scientist declares «global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning... enjoy global warming while it lasts» — Sun is «heading towards «a grand
minimum» as we saw in Little
Ice Age» — Sept. 11, 2009)
«Sun Sleeps»: Danish Scientist declares «global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning... enjoy global warming while it lasts» — Sun is «heading towards «a grand
minimum» as we saw in Little
Ice Age» — Sept. 11, 2009
published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) show a significant increase since the Maunder
minimum in the 1600's during the Little
Ice Age and shows further increases over the 19th and 20th centuries... Use of the Stefan - Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W / m2 increase in solar activity could account for an approximate.44 C global temperature increase... A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum increased by almost 50 % over the 400 years since the Maunder
minimum... This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels.
''... worked with two sediment cores they extracted from the seabed of the eastern Norwegian Sea, developing a 1000 - year proxy temperature record «based on measurements of δ18O in Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, a planktonic foraminifer that calcifies at relatively shallow depths within the Atlantic waters of the eastern Norwegian Sea during late summer,» which they compared with the temporal histories of various proxies of concomitant solar activity... This work revealed, as the seven scientists describe it, that «the lowest isotope values (highest temperatures) of the last millennium are seen ~ 1100 - 1300 A.D., during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and again after ~ 1950 A.D.» In between these two warm intervals, of course, were the colder temperatures of the Little
Ice Age, when oscillatory thermal
minima occurred at the times of the Dalton, Maunder, Sporer and Wolf solar
minima, such that the δ18O proxy record of near - surface water temperature was found to be «robustly and near - synchronously correlated with various proxies of solar variability spanning the last millennium,» with decade - to century - scale temperature variability of 1 to 2 °C magnitude.»
«Since irradiance variations are apparently minimal, changes in the Earth's climate that seem to be associated with changes in the level of solar activity — the Maunder
Minimum and the Little
Ice age for example — would then seem to be due to terrestrial responses to more subtle changes in the Sun's spectrum of radiative output.
The Maunder
minimum, aka Little
Ice Age, a time of sparse sunspot activity, froze out the Viking settlements on Greenland, Iced up the Thames river in London and winter carnivals are known to have been held on it.
There was an even lower number of sunspots during the Maunder
Minimum between 1645 and 1710 coincident with an even colder spell, known as the Little
Ice Age.
As before, we use the survival of
ice of different
ages to statistically predict the 2014
minimum and use the last 5 years of survival rates as a predictor for this summer.
The Maunder
Minimum occurred during the depths of the Little
Ice Age, a period of feeble summers and bitingly cold winters, war, pestilence and famine.
Dr Abdussamatov has predicted that the reduction in sunspots will reach a
minimum in 2042, and temperatures will begin to fall in 2014 culminating in the 19th Little
Ice Age in the past 7500 years, beginning in 2055 ± 11.
Disturbingly, the data tells us as well, what will happen with temperatures and agriculture, if the sun falls into another Maunder
Minimum with the next solar cycle, as it did during the little
ice age.
It is increasingly evident that we are on the cusp of both the next major
ice age (as in 1 mile thick
ice in Chicago and NYC) caused by the orbital eccentricity and the tilt of the Earth's axis (See Milankovitch cycles below) and the next mini
ice age (see Maunder, and Dalton, or Rohrer
minimum related to the location and number of sunspots (below)-RRB-.
A deep bicentennial
minimum in solar constant is to be anticipated in 2042 ± 11 and the 19th Little
Ice Age (for the last 7500 years) may occur in 2055 ± 11.
The Maunder
Minimum was not the beginning of The Little
Ice Age — it actually began about 1300 AD — but it marked perhaps the bitterest part of the cooling.
It is uncertain whether the solar irradiance will rebound soon into a more - or-less normal solar cycle — or whether it might remain at a low level for decades, analogous to the Maunder
Minimum, a period of few sunspots that may have been a principal cause of the Little
Ice Age.