«enjoy»: C. Emiliani to Ewing, 10 Oct. 1956, folder «
Ice ages Paper,» prelim.
Not exact matches
What happens when the world moves into a warm, interglacial period isn't certain, but in 2009, a
paper published in Science by researchers found that upwelling in the Southern Ocean increased as the last
ice age waned, correlated to a rapid rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide.
The new
paper uses alkenones from the Svalbard islands and is among the first studies that present Arctic summer temperature change over the period from the end of the last
Ice Age some 12000 years ago.
On the subject, Robert Ehrlich has a recent
paper on solar forcing of
ice ages.
The Past and Future Ocean Circulation from a Contemporary Perspective, in AGU Monograph, 173, A. Schmittner, J. Chiang and S. Hemming, Eds., 53 - 74, (pdf)» Wunsch's publications page is great food - for - thought, I particularly enjoyed his
papers on
Ice Age changes and the Milankovitch cycles.
In his
paper, he proposed a few theories as to what might have gone wrong, including the idea that the
ice age model he used was inaccurate or that the estimations of 20th - century sea - level rise were too high.
Ice Age Rocks (Skagit County), 1944 watercolor and gouache on
paper 57 1/2» x 30 1/2» sheet size 54 5/8» x 27 7/8» sight size, signed and dated
The Hays
paper above is the most notable example of the «
ice age» strand.
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a
paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little
Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
The
paper, combining evidence of driftwood accumulation and beach formation in northern Greenland with evidence of past sea -
ice extent in parts of Canada, concludes that Arctic sea
ice appears to have retreated far more in some spans since the end of the last
ice age than it has in recent years.
The 78 - author
paper, published Sunday in Nature Geoscience, used a variety of indirect indicators of temperature, from tree rings to pollen grains, to build on other work charting temperature shifts since the end of the last
ice age — including the recent Marcott et al
paper, explored here, which used seabed sediments to chart 11,000 years of temperatures.
Below you'll hear from scientists with significant concerns about keystone sections of the
paper — on the evidence for «superstorms» in the last warm interval between
ice ages, the Eemian, and on the pace at which seas could rise and the imminence of any substantial uptick in the rate of coastal inundation.
The
paper also finds that several significant past climate fluctuations — including a warm spell that peaked around 1100 A.D. called the medieval warm period and the so - called little
ice age from the 1400s through the 1700s — were global in scope.
See e.g. this review
paper (Schmidt et al, 2004), where the response of a climate model to estimated past changes in natural forcing due to solar irradiance variations and explosive volcanic eruptions, is shown to match the spatial pattern of reconstructed temperature changes during the «Little
Ice Age» (which includes enhanced cooling in certain regions such as Europe).
A remarkable
paper coming in the Jan. 31 issue of Geophysical Research Letters has a title that says it all: «Abrupt onset of the Little
Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea - ice / ocean feedbacks.&raq
Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea -
ice / ocean feedbacks.&raq
ice / ocean feedbacks.»
Here's a cornerstone passage from the
paper, reprising a longstanding view that the environmental conditions of the Holocene — the equable span since the end of the last
ice age — is ideal:
Some Murdoch
papers are running an ad that seeks to guarantee > 1.5, by claiming the world needs 1,200 more coal burning power plants to stave off the existential threat of the next
Ice Age
That
paper does mention Milankovitch, but AFAIK, Milankovitch cycles can't even explain the change in
ice age cycles from ~ 41Kyr to ~ 100kyr.
I suspect that it looked OK in your view or you didn't check; «the
paper i cited talks of the hiatus in global temperatures for the past 20 years or so, that the Little
Ice Age was global in extent, and that climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate predictions about what will happen in the future.
Mammoths frozen «swiftly in their tracks,» Impact Team (1977), p. 19; trigger
ice age: Rasool and Schneider (1971), see comment here on their
paper; for lake sediments Wolkomir, op.
There are many who will not like this recent
paper published in Nature Communications on principle as it talks of the hiatus in global temperatures for the past 20 years or so, that the Little
Ice Age was global in extent, and that climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate predictions about what will happen in the future.
It is interesting that the WSJ published a
paper in 1933 which showed that temperatures had been rising for 100 years tells me that this overall temperature increase has been going on for a very long time (probably since 1725 and the end of the little
ice age).
Finally, only 7 scientific peer reviewed published
papers or about 10 % the scientific
papers of the late 1960s and 1970s predicted that the earth would cool or go into an
ice age.
Good
papers that demostrate the
ice age rebound plus various ups and downs based on plate tectonics and
ice age sea level variations.
Of the 68
papers, the results showed that a large majority 42 scientific research
papers, or 62 %, predicted the Earth would warm as a consequence of humans increasing carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, 19
papers or 28 % were neutral or took no stance, and only 7
papers or about 10 % predicted that the earth was cooling or going into an
ice age.
Examples of
papers confirming that fertilization of the oceans by iron could have played a role in
ice ages: Moore et al. (2000); Kohfeld et al. (2005); Abelmann et al. (2006); Martínez - Garcia et al. (2011).
For all the Cyclomaniacs attempting to upgrade «weather» oscillations in to «Climate» predictors, that Crowley and Unterman
paper that found the potential Little
Ice Age Volcanic trigger around 1243AD is interesting.
The
paper claims to show that in the warming since the last
ice age, CO2 leads temperature.
The
paper finds that several significant past climate ups and downs — including the medieval warm period and little
ice age — were global in scope, challenging some previous conclusions that these were fairly limited Northern Hemisphere phenomena.
In a previous
paper from 2009, Post-Little
Ice Age tree line rise and climate warming in the Swedish Scandes: a landscape ecological perspective, he wrote:
Bizarrely entitled «A 3 - million - year
ice age is coming to an end «(15 September 2016), this slick video pretends it's promoting the recently released
paper by Harry Stern and Kristen Laidre (2016) that got a lot of media attention last week (see here and here).
«A
paper recently published in the journal Weather finds that global summer average sunshine [solar short - wave radiation that reaches Earth's surface] dimmed during the period 1958 - 1983 [prompting an
ice age scare], but markedly increased from 1985 - 2010.»
One of the few
papers that actually forecast a future
ice age is Kukla 1972, as quoted by NTZ: «A new glacial insolation regime, expected to last 8000 years, began just recently.
«A peer - reviewed
paper [Krivova et al.] published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) show a significant increase since the Maunder minimum in the 1600's during the Little
Ice Age and shows further increases over the 19th and 20th centuries... Use of the Stefan - Boltzmann equation indicates that a 1.25 W / m2 increase in solar activity could account for an approximate.44 C global temperature increase... A significant new finding is that portions of the more energetic ultraviolet region of the solar spectrum increased by almost 50 % over the 400 years since the Maunder minimum... This is highly significant because the UV portion of the solar spectrum is the most important for heating of the oceans due to the greatest penetration beyond the surface and highest energy levels.
The
paper also notes that orbital changes are one initial cause for
ice ages.
This also explains why, as you point out, CO2 levels have in the past been high during an
ice age (although never at 5000ppm — the late - Ordovician would have been a contender but this recent
paper — ttp: / / geology.gsapubs.org/content/37/10/951.abstract — demonstrates that CO2 consumption increased during the mid-Ordovician as a result of continental weathering, however levels were held up by volcanic outgassing.
It was a peer reviewed and published
paper that shows not all
ice ages match the M cycle theory however they all match the movement of the solar plane that the Earth orbits the sun on.
Even back in the 70s, when there was some fear of eventual cooling bc the earth had been slowly cooling overall (as CO2 has slowly been reducing and going into the ground, until we suddenly reversed milllions and millions and millions of years in the process in an instant) and we are in an
ice age and inter glacial period,
papers predicting AGW outnumbered those worried about or predicting longer term cooling many times over.
During the periods studied for the
paper, the Earth emerged from an
ice age and temperatures rose by about 5 C.
But if this
paper is true, and why wouldn't it be, a tendency to greater weather and climate extremes would be a harbinger of descent into the next
Ice Age, a sign that the border from interglacial to glacial has been passed.
In the Science Advances
paper, Cook and his coauthors compare results from the new atlas and its counterparts across three time spans during the generally warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (1000 - 1200), the Little
Ice Age (1550 - 1750), and the modern period (1850 - 2012).
Dear Nir Shaviv, I would be glad to receive your comment about the recent
paper from Andrew C. Overholt et al 2009 ApJ 705 L101 - L103 doi: 10.1088 / 0004 - 637X / 705 / 2 / L101 TESTING THE LINK BETWEEN TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND GALA Does it mean - the spiral arm mechanism you suggest does nt fit - can some other mechanism explain your measurements and hypothesis - does this have an impact on the cosmic ray climate theory or not If we talk about the paradox of the faint young sun, imho its still an issue that any mechanism solving the problem of the major
ice ages occuring each 140 million years in the last billion, does nt work for the first 3 billion years.
This concept was originally put forward in the seminal
papers by Benzi, where they used it to address recurrent
ice ages, and also Nicolis about the same time.
By «global warming» these
papers don't, of course, mean the mild warming of around 0.8 degrees Celsius that the planet has experienced since the middle of the 19th century as the world crawled out of the Little
Ice Age.
It is not from coming out of the Little
Ice Age or the Sun, as Tung and Zhou discussed in our PNAS
paper.
Seriously — if anyone is «concerned» about the misleading upshot of the
paper — wouldn't they be concerned that «skeptics» read McIntyre's blog and the take home message is that he can «plainly» see that «we're headed into new
ice age?»
The Chen and Tung
paper is an important link in our understanding, and changes in the Atlantic Ocean heat storage seem to explain the shape of the global surface variations since the end of the Little
Ice Age (circa 1850).
A new
paper Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little
Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly (Mann et al 2009)(see here for press release) addresses this question, focusing on regional temperature change during the Medieval Warm Period and Little
Ice Age.
The net effect is that we have some «skeptics» who, by virtue of their shock and horror about the Marcott
paper, react in such a way to conclude that, «we are headed into a new
ice age.»
In response to your question I would refer you to my comment above Dave Wendt (14:39:39): where I discuss the Rigor and Wallace
paper of 2004 which demonstrated that the decline in sea
ice age and thickness began with a shift in state in Beaufort Gyre and the TransPolar Drift in 1989 which resulted in multiyear
ice declining from over 80 % of the Arctic to 30 % in about one year and that the persistence of that pattern has been responsible for the continuing decline.