The reason I think this simple «nature is driving climate» reason needs to be considered is simply
the ice core data from both Greenland and Antarctica that gives a near term (geologically speaking) view of the Earth's temps over the last number of Ice ages.
Here is a study, from University of Copenhagen, of
ice core data from Greenland.
Ice core data from Baffin Island and sea core sediments from the Chukchi Sea also show that even if there is warming, it has occurred before.
I have done a rather detailed statistical analysis of the readily available NOAA
ice core data from both Greenland and Antarctica.
The World Data Center (WDC) for Paleoclimatology maintains archives of
ice core data from polar and low - latitude mountain glaciers and ice caps throughout the world.
Look at
the ice core data from Greenland and Antarctic.
We have
ice core data from Greenland and the Antarctic ice cores.
* An exponential fit hindcasts absurdly, namely to zero when
the ice core data from Vostok etc. would suggest 280 - 290 as a more reasonable hindcasting target.
Ice core data from Antarctic from ocean sediments show 8 episodes of very large ice flux — largest 14,600 years ago, meltwater pulse 1a — 1 - 3 meters sea level rise per century for several centuries.
Puncak Jaya is the only place to get
ice core data from the western side of what's known as the Pacific Warm Pool the single largest heat source to the global atmosphere.
Patrick Crill, an American biogeochemist at Stockholm University, says
ice core data from the past 800,000 years, covering about eight glacial and interglacial cycles, show atmospheric methane concentrations between 350 and 800 parts per billion in glacial and interglacial periods, respectively.
However, the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere — roughly 290 ppm (parts per million)-- was ca. 110 ppm lower than the current level, as
ice core data from the Antarctic shows.
Ice core data from the poles clearly show dramatic swings in average global temperatures, but researchers still don't know how local ecosystems reacted to the change.
The researchers studied temperature measurements over the last 150 years,
ice core data from Greenland from the interglacial period 12,000 years ago, for the ice age 120,000 years ago,
ice core data from Antarctica, which goes back 800,000 years, as well as data from ocean sediment cores going back 5 million years.
Not exact matches
To calculate the correlation during the Little
Ice Age, researchers compared the
core data with proxies for precipitation
data, such as
data from tree rings, cave formations and other natural records.
Using
data from 16
ice cores collected
from widely spaced locations around the Antarctic continent, including the South Pole, a group led by Joe McConnell of the Desert Research Institute (DRI) in Reno, Nevada, created the most accurate and precise reconstruction to date of lead pollution over Earth's southernmost continent.
«In any case, the results of our model study give a clear indication that the bipolar variability of sulfate deposits must be taken into consideration if the traces of large volcanic eruptions are to be deduced
from ice cores,» says Dr. Krüger, «Several research groups that deal with this issue have already contacted us to verify their
data through our model results.»
Data from the new
ice core array illustrates that Antarctic lead concentrations reached a peak in 1900 and remained high until the late 1920s, with brief declines during the Great Depression and the end of World War II.
It's OK to state that, «The common belief that carbon dioxide is driving climate change is at odds with much of the available scientific
data:
data from weather balloons and satellites,
from ice core surveys, and
from the historical temperature records» when this is clearly untrue.
To get to the bottom of things, he mapped the ages and locations of 1,323 woolly mammoth remains and 576 archaeological sites, and he merged them with
data from plant and pollen records, and climate change information
from ice cores in Greenland.
The team, led by Dr Kira Rehfeld and Dr Thomas Laepple, compared the Greenland
data with that
from sediments collected in several ocean regions around the globe, as well as
from ice -
core samples gathered in the Antarctic.
Using
data from a 3053 - meter - long
core of
ice and bedrock collected
from the center of the island in 1993, Schaefer's team has found valuable clues to what the period held.
This interpretation was based on water isotope
data from central Greenland
ice cores.
By comparing the EPICA air bubbles
data to that
from other
ice cores and marine sediments, researchers can create a reliable picture of the climate over time.
«We have run the model over a simulated period of three million years, and taken into account measurements
from ice cores and independent magnetic and seismic
data,» says Petrunin.
The study, by an international team of scientists led by the University of Cambridge, examined how changes in ocean currents in the Atlantic Ocean were related to climate conditions in the northern hemisphere during the last
ice age, by examining
data from ice cores and fossilised plankton shells.
Analysing new
data from marine sediment
cores taken
from the deep South Atlantic, between the southern tip of South America and the southern tip of Africa, the researchers discovered that during the last
ice age, deep ocean currents in the South Atlantic varied essentially in unison with Greenland
ice -
core temperatures.
In order to predict future changes in climate, scientists verify and refine their models against paleoclimate
data from the
ice cores Taylor and others pull up.
These events, known as Dansgaard - Oeschger events, were first identified in
data from Greenland
ice cores in the early 1990s, and had far - reaching impacts on the global climate.
«The first step was to reconstruct the history of global mean temperatures for the last 784,000 years, using combined
data from marine sediment
cores,
ice cores, and computer simulations covering the last eight glacial cycles,» said Friedrich, a post-doctoral researcher at IPRC.
The paleoclimate
data, which included mainly changes in the oxygen isotopes of the calcium carbonate deposits, were then compared to similar records
from other caves,
ice cores, and sediment records as well as model predictions for water availability in the Middle East and west central Asia today and into the future.
From at least Lorius et al (1991)-- when we first had reasonable estimates of the greenhouse gases from the ice cores, to an upcoming paper by Schneider von Deimling et al, where they test a multi-model ensemble (1000 members) against LGM data to conclude that models with sensitivities greater than about 4.3 ºC can't match the d
From at least Lorius et al (1991)-- when we first had reasonable estimates of the greenhouse gases
from the ice cores, to an upcoming paper by Schneider von Deimling et al, where they test a multi-model ensemble (1000 members) against LGM data to conclude that models with sensitivities greater than about 4.3 ºC can't match the d
from the
ice cores, to an upcoming paper by Schneider von Deimling et al, where they test a multi-model ensemble (1000 members) against LGM
data to conclude that models with sensitivities greater than about 4.3 ºC can't match the
data.
Readers can look for themselves at the Greenland
ice core record and decide whether there's anything of consequence going on around 41K before present that looks any different
from other glacial - interglacial cycles.You can look at the GISP
data yourself by downloading
Analysis of
data also shows that Ceres has a water -
ice mantle surrounding a rocky
core, and that there may still be at least pockets of liquid water beneath the surface, raising the prospect of potential habitability for microorganisms, as seemingly unlikely as that may sound for a world so far
from the Sun.
All
data are
from a depth of 580 meters in a sample
from the WAIS Divide
ice core.
Other tree ring
data, 10 Be
data, orbital satellite
data, borehole
data,
ice coring data, etc. show, for example, the lengthy medieval warming which is practically absent
from the hockey stick.
[Further Response: Our estimates of the magnitude of future global warming do not come
from ice core data, and do not depend on it in any way.
Plotting GHG forcing (7)
from ice core data (27) against temperature shows that global climate sensitivity including the slow surface albedo feedback is 1.5 °C per W / m2 or 6 °C for doubled CO2 (Fig. 2), twice as large as the Charney fast - feedback sensitivity.»
Indeed, Gore could have used the
ice core data to make an additional and stronger point, which is that these
data provide a nice independent test of climate sensitivity, which gives a result in excellent agreement with results
from models.
SST
data from the tropical Atlantic, Greenland and Antarctic
ice cores and some tropical land temperatures).
Researchers
from the project Svalbard
ice cores and climate variability (SVICECLIM) have combined these valuable time series with
data from ice cores drilled at three different sites in Svalbard.
The researchers used the measured temperatures
from these two sites and the isotope
data from the
ice core from the overlapping time period (a method called «scaling») to quantitatively reconstruct earlier temperature variations.
Thermometer measurements
from Vardø and Longyearbyen overlap with the
ice core data back to 1911 and 1840.
Note that Figure 1 shows only the proxy record
from the
ice core - no instrumental
data is included.
Paleoclimatology
data are derived
from natural sources such as tree rings,
ice cores, corals, and ocean and lake sediments.
I have recently attended a lecture by Dr. David Dallmeyer of the U.of Ga. concerning
data availble
from ice cores concerning the natural patterns of heating and cooling.
We also include
data from the new WAIS Divide
ice core that goes back 2000 years (actually, this
core goes back to 68,000 years, and is annually resolved back to at least 30,000 years, but that's a story for another time).
Amidst the continuous chatter in the blogosphere about the strengths and limitations about «multiproxy» studies, these studies may be a refreshing return to simpler methods relying on just one type of «proxy»:
data from ice cores.
These
data show an increase of sulfur in Greenland
ice cores from the 1940's to the 1980's and a decrease thereafter, in line with northern American emission inventories.
We know
from data that we have caused the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere to rise sharply during the past century: it is now much higher than any time during the past 650,000 years (which is as far back as reliable
ice core data exist).