Ice core records show that increases in CO2 LAG warming by about 800 years.
First, he argues that since
ice core records show that temperature generally started changing before CO2 concentrations by several hundred years, CO2 can't be a major cause of warming.
It clearly shows CO2 following the temperature, due to the effect of the oceans but, as far as I'm aware,
the ice core records show not a single instance of temperature following changes in CO2.
This is in fact what
the ice core records show — warming precedes CO2 rise by hundreds of years, repeatedly.
The ice core records show CH4 and CO2 tracking very closely.
All ice core records show that we are living in a warm period that is surrounded by much colder and much longer lasting periods.
Figure 3:
Ice core records show atmospheric CO2 was lower than today for last 800,000 years.
Do not
the ice core records show quite abrupt climate swings almost as the norm?
lolwot,
the ice core records show that climate shifts from warming to cooling at maximum CO2 and from cooling to warming at minimum CO2.
And while you are at it, please explain why
the ice core records show a past climate sensitivity of about 3 degrees C.
Ice core records show that atmospheric CO2 varied in the range of 180 to 300 ppm over the glacial - interglacial cycles of the last 650 kyr (Figure 6.3; Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005a).
Ice core records show atmospheric methane levels plunged from about 700 parts per billion to just 500 ppb at the time of their extinction.
When I give talks about climate change, the question that comes up most frequently is this: «Doesn't the relationship between CO2 and temperature in
the ice core record show that temperature drives CO2, not the other way round?»
Rather,
the ice core record shows clearly that changes in temperature precede changes in carbon dioxide throughout the glacial - interglacial cycle (Mudelsee, 2001), and that for the last half million years the climate system has oscillated in a self - limiting way between glacials and interglacials by about 6 deg.
C) However, since
the ice core record shows many instances where temperatures reverse and drop while CO2 is still increasing and vice versa, it is evident that there are other (largely unknown) climate drivers that routinely overwhelm whatever effect CO2 has on temperatures (positive feedback included).
Variability is extremely important because
the ice core record shows an exceptionally smooth curve achieved by applying a 70 - year smoothing average.
The average level for
the ice core record shown is approximately 265 ppm while it is approximately 300 ppm for the stomata record.
I also vaguely recall that
the ice core records shows co2 rise follows temperature rise.
Yet the Lloyd study found that over the past 8,000
the ice core record showed about 1C warming or cooling per hundred years.
If you want data from approximately the same location, just compare the four
ice core records shown, which are all from Antarctica, with the South Pole data.
Not exact matches
Record of melt from two west Greenland ice cores showing that modern melt rates (red) are higher than at any time in the record since at least 1550 CE (b
Record of melt from two west Greenland
ice cores showing that modern melt rates (red) are higher than at any time in the
record since at least 1550 CE (b
record since at least 1550 CE (black).
«While concentrations measured in Antarctic
ice cores are very low, the
records show that atmospheric concentrations and deposition rates increased approximately six-fold in the late 1880s, coincident with the start of mining at Broken Hill in southern Australia and smelting at nearby Port Pirie.»
Records of nitric acid and carbon - 14 in
ice cores show that we have not had a solar flare bigger than the 1859 «Carrington event» since 1561.
So the climate experience was colder, as the atmospheric
records from Greenland
ice cores show.
Paleoclimate: I don't know for sure, but this
record is too long (1 million years) to be an
ice core, so I'm guessing it's a stacked sediment
core,
showing delta - O18 from ocean foraminifera.
Had he done so, he would have drawn a line that went up only 1/3 of the distance implied by the simple correlation with CO2
shown by the
ice core record.
More recent studies, with much more precise correlation between
ice cores and global temperature
records, have
shown that temperature and CO2 changed synchronously in Antarctica during the end of the last
ice age, and globally CO2 rose slightly before global temperatures.
Note that Figure 1
shows only the proxy
record from the
ice core - no instrumental data is included.
A full 900,000 years of
ice core temperature
records and carbon dioxide content
records show CO2 increases follow increases in Earth's temperature instead of leading them.
This figure
shows the changes seen in
ice cores and the instrumental
record.
In my briefings to the Association of Small Island States in Bali, the 41 Island Nations of the Caribbean, Pacific, and Indian Ocean (and later circulated to all member states), I pointed out that IPCC had seriously and systematically UNDERESTIMATED the extent of climate change,
showing that the sensitivity of temperature and sea level to CO2 clearly
shown by the past climate
record in coral reefs,
ice cores, and deep sea sediments is orders of magnitude higher than IPCC's models.
Now the locations of avaialble proxy data (tree rings,
ice cores, ocean sediment
records, corals etc.) are not necessarily optimally spread out, but the spatial sampling error is actually quite easy to calculate, and goes into the error bars
shown on most reconstructions.
You may now understand why global temperature, i.e. ocean heat content,
shows such a strong correlation with atmospheric CO2 over the last 800,000 years — as
shown in the
ice core records.
The
ice core record of the last 420,000 years
shows exactly the opposite.
Indeed, Claude Lorius, Jim Hansen and others essentially predicted this finding fully 17 years ago, in a landmark paper that addressed the cause of temperature change observed in Antarctic
ice core records, well before the data
showed that CO2 might lag temperature.
Well I noted that the insoluble aerosol
record in the
ice cores shows that aerosols vary by 2.7 orders of magnitude, or 500 times min equals max.
... According to the marine
records, the Eemian interglacial (William: Eemain is the name of the last interglacial period, the current interglacial period is called the Holocene) ended with a rapid cooling event about 110,000 years ago (e.g., Imbrie et al., 1984; Martinson et al., 1987), which also
shows up in
ice cores and pollen
records from across Eurasia.
There are indications in the
ice core records that
show the cooling from Toba, but where is the global warming that should have resulted from all the CO2 put into the atmosphere?
Figure 2
shows our data together with earlier results from the Dome C (650 — 390 kyr bp4 and 22 — 0 kyr bp5), Vostok1, 2,3 (440 — 0 kyr bp) and Taylor Dome6 (60 — 20 kyr bp)
ice cores resulting in a composite CO2
record over eight glacial cycles.
Although the simulations largely agreed with
records from North Atlantic sediment
cores and Greenland
ice cores, the team's results
showed that the flood had much milder effects around the globe than many people thought.
The
record shows good correlation to East Antarctic
ice cores and to climate
records from South Georgia and Bunger Oasis.
«High resolution
records from Antarctic
ice cores show that carbon dioxide concentrations increased... 600 ± 400 years after the warming...» — Dr. Hubertus Fischer et al., Science, 1999
Can you point to any published analysis that
shows CO2 provides the dominant temperature feedback in the
ice core record?
This is based on the
ice core record, but there are other measures of CO2 that strongly disagree with the
ice core record: for example, the leaf stomata
record generated by Wagner et al
shows significant variation in the Holocene period, indicating that rapid fluctuations do occur and that 370ppm is «high» but not outside typical variability.
«The Law Dome
ice core CO2
records show major growth in atmospheric CO2 levels over the industrial period, except during 1935 - 1945 A.D. when levels stabilized or decreased slightly.»
The computations
show similar long - term variations with the global radionuclides production
records from terrestrial archives such as tree rings and
ice cores which validate the approach.
Strong katabatic winds related to the
ice sheets (shown tentatively as stippled black arrows), were probably responsible for ice - free polynya - type conditions off the major ice sheets, causing phytoplankton and sea - ice algae productivity recorded in cores PS2138 - 3 and PS2757 - 8 (for the region off the Greenland - Laurentide Ice Sheet no proof from sediment cores are availab
ice sheets (
shown tentatively as stippled black arrows), were probably responsible for
ice - free polynya - type conditions off the major ice sheets, causing phytoplankton and sea - ice algae productivity recorded in cores PS2138 - 3 and PS2757 - 8 (for the region off the Greenland - Laurentide Ice Sheet no proof from sediment cores are availab
ice - free polynya - type conditions off the major
ice sheets, causing phytoplankton and sea - ice algae productivity recorded in cores PS2138 - 3 and PS2757 - 8 (for the region off the Greenland - Laurentide Ice Sheet no proof from sediment cores are availab
ice sheets, causing phytoplankton and sea -
ice algae productivity recorded in cores PS2138 - 3 and PS2757 - 8 (for the region off the Greenland - Laurentide Ice Sheet no proof from sediment cores are availab
ice algae productivity
recorded in
cores PS2138 - 3 and PS2757 - 8 (for the region off the Greenland - Laurentide
Ice Sheet no proof from sediment cores are availab
Ice Sheet no proof from sediment
cores are available.
In their 2015 Science paper, Rhodes et al. presented an
ice core methane
record of unprecedented resolution, which
showed rapid emissions of methane in response to Heinrich events.
He found the pre-industrial level little different from the current level, and the variability from year to year was much wider than the
ice core and Mauna Loa
record showed.
Records comprising paleo ice core reductions with modern instrument records appended should not be continuous as IPCC has show
Records comprising paleo
ice core reductions with modern instrument
records appended should not be continuous as IPCC has show
records appended should not be continuous as IPCC has
shown them.