Ice sheet albedo forcing is estimated to have caused a global mean forcing of about — 3.2 W m — 2 (based on a range of several LGM simulations) and radiative forcing from increased atmospheric aerosols (primarily dust and vegetation) is estimated to have been about — 1 W m — 2 each.
So how much of the temperature swings are orbitally forced and how much GHG forced and how much
ice sheet albedo forced?
Not exact matches
On the studies of sensitivity based on the last glacial maximum, what reduction in solar
forcing is used based on the increased
Albedo of the
ice -
sheets, snow and desert.
26 Paul W asked, «On the studies of sensitivity based on the last glacial maximum, what reduction in solar
forcing is used based on the increased
Albedo of the
ice -
sheets, snow and desert.
This implies a
forcing of 3 W / m2 for
albedo changes presumably due to additional
ice / snow
sheets.
This was a relatively stable climate (for several thousand years, 20,000 years ago), and a period where we have reasonable estimates of the radiative
forcing (
albedo changes from
ice sheets and vegetation changes, greenhouse gas concentrations (derived from
ice cores) and an increase in the atmospheric dust load) and temperature changes.
On the studies of sensitivity based on the last glacial maximum, what reduction in solar
forcing is used based on the increased
Albedo of the
ice -
sheets, snow and desert.
In LGM simulations land
albedo changes are prescribed (at least in regards to
ice sheets and altered topography due to sea level; there are feedback land
albedo changes) so are a
forcing, whereas sea
ice is determined interactively by the model climate, so is a feedback in this framework.
As I explained, you * can * get at climate sensitivity with the
ice core record, but only by taking into account all the
forcing (including, in particular, the
ice sheet albedo).
(Orbital
forcing doesn't have much of a global annual average
forcing, and it's even concievable that the sensitivity to orbital
forcing as measured in terms of global averages and the long - term response (temporal scale of
ice sheet response) might be approaching infinity or even be negative (if more sunlight is directed onto an
ice sheet, the global average
albedo might increase, but the
ice sheet would be more likely to decay, with a global average
albedo feedback that causes warming).
Orbital
forcing causes
ice ages or ends them by redistributing incoming solar radiation over seasons and latitudes so that
ice sheet growth or decay is more or less favorable on a regional basis, with a resulting global average
albedo feedback.)
So
albedo change (owing to changes in orbital
forcing, which is what melts the
ice sheets) was comparable to, and probably larger than, the CO2 change.
article, Hansen estimates that the radiative
forcing from all greenhouse gases together (glacial - interglacial) is -2.6 + / - 0.5 W / m ^ 2, and
ice sheet albedo is -3.5 + / -1 W / m ^ 2.
From the last glacial max — CO2
forcing had about a 2W / m2 increase and
ice sheet albedo change amounted to some 25W / m2 less reflected SW..
Comparisons of the impacts of shortwave and longwave radiative
forcing appropriate over the
ice sheets are not straightforward, but taking summer half - year insolation variations in shortwave (Figure 3), and assuming an
albedo of 0.5 for melting
ice, variations in summertime shortwave
forcing exceed the direct CO2 radiative
forcing by about a factor of five.
Albedo change due to LGM — Holocene vegetation change, much of which is inherent with ice sheet area change, and albedo change due to coastline movement are lumped together with ice sheet area change in calculating the surface albedo climate fo
Albedo change due to LGM — Holocene vegetation change, much of which is inherent with
ice sheet area change, and
albedo change due to coastline movement are lumped together with ice sheet area change in calculating the surface albedo climate fo
albedo change due to coastline movement are lumped together with
ice sheet area change in calculating the surface
albedo climate fo
albedo climate
forcing.
Another way of saying this is to estimate ECS from the last glacial - interglacial transition, the
albedo change due to
ice sheet melting is taken as a
forcing rather than as a feedback.