If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best.
Not exact matches
Finally, it doesn't
matter if the low P / E ratio is related to the company or the industry, because a low
valuation simply means the market does not believe in sustainable profit growth.
Too many founders worry about negotiating the last dime on the
valuation instead of realising that it won't really
matter if they are able to build a large successful business.
If one is talking about a complete market cycle, or 10 - 12 year investment prospects,
valuations matter unconditionally.
But
if one is talking about a segment of the market cycle,
valuations matter to the extent that they are aligned with the prevailing psychology of investors toward speculation or risk - aversion.
It does not
matter much
if you take a few years to reinvest after a period of extremely high
valuations.
, b) plays a role, but only within the 10 % stretch band, c)
matters, but one can always find a portfolio's worth of low absolute
valuation stuff (
if one doesn't worry about the implied adverse selection bias that when everything else is pricey, the cheap stuff is much more likely to be cheap for a good reason), or d) something else?
If you add in some quality metrics (eg, to filter out miners over-investing), this tends to throw up situations where metrics like ROE may have been impeded by some temporary setback (which might affect your
valuation models negatively), but where the underlying cash flow / quality of earnings remains strong, or small growing companies where cash flow is improving at a faster rate than earnings, and it's just a
matter of time before earnings (and therefore
valuation) catch up.
It doesn't really
matter, they'll find it... And
if one
valuation metric's too high, you can be sure they'll find a cheaper one.
If it
matters, Warren Buffett went on TV the day after I wrote this, expressing a similar opinion about stock
valuations.
And most know when to call in the experts
if the
matter involves
valuation of real estate, pensions, or businesses (quite common), or more rarely chattels, including art, collections and antiques.
I was told more than once by Appraisal Institute of Canada instructors that the end appraisal document result (the final
valuation) did not
matter that much, that only the «process»
mattered, because that process,
if done correctly, would be our best defense in a lawsuit.