If large volcanic eruptions (Katla 1755, then in the early 1800's Mayon and Tambora) are taken into account, than GP «proxy» has a good track with the CETs for nearly 350 years span.
Not exact matches
«In any case, the results of our model study give a clear indication that the bipolar variability of sulfate deposits must be taken into consideration
if the traces of
large volcanic eruptions are to be deduced from ice cores,» says Dr. Krüger, «Several research groups that deal with this issue have already contacted us to verify their data through our model results.»
If we take some notable volcanoes in the past 600 years (Figure 1), we can confirm that frost rings in bristlecone pines are good indicators of
large explosive
volcanic eruptions, similar to the known coincidence of hemispheric cooling evidenced in growth rings of European trees in the years around historically dated
eruptions.
If volcanic emissions were significant in a climate context, we'd see notable spikes in CO2 following some of the
largest historical
eruptions.
If the real world's response to forcing changes was to amplify the forcing change the earth's temperature would widely oscillated in response to let's say a
large volcanic eruption or other
large temporary forcing change.
In fact, the major effect of significant
volcanic eruptions is cooling due to the sulfate aerosols that they release (although in order to have a significant cooling effect, the
eruption has to be
large enough that it injects the aerosols into the stratosphere where they can stay around longer... and it apparently helps
if the
eruption is reasonably near to the equator).
A record warm year in 2010 is not a certainty, especially
if the current El Niño was to unexpectedly decline rapidly near the start of 2010, or
if there was a
large volcanic eruption.
If you look at the average global response to
large volcanic eruptions, from Krakatoa to Pinatubo, you would see that the global temperature decreased by only about 0.1 °C while the hypersensitive climate models give 0.3 to 0.5 °C, not seen in reality.
92)
If one factors in non-greenhouse influences such as El Nino events and large volcanic eruptions, lower atmosphere satellite - based temperature measurements show little, if any, global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased by 55 ppm (17 per cent
If one factors in non-greenhouse influences such as El Nino events and
large volcanic eruptions, lower atmosphere satellite - based temperature measurements show little,
if any, global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased by 55 ppm (17 per cent
if any, global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased by 55 ppm (17 per cent).
If you look at the the lower stratospheric temperature, you do see a
large positive temperature perturbation immediately after the
volcanic eruption (this is expected of course), but rather than returning to the same relatively constant temperature, it shifts to a new, lower temperature operating point.
The press release said that a record warm year «is not a certainty, especially
if the current El Niño was to unexpectedly decline rapidly near the start of 2010, or
if there was a
large volcanic eruption.»
If it is mainly greenhouse gases, the trend should go on to the positive side... Of course, a
large volcanic eruption may — temporarely — change that all.
But the data shows that
volcanic eruptions do NOT cause the
large effects that they would perforce have
if the sensitivity to forcing were as
large as they claim.
Similarly,
if global temperatures drop for some reason (for example, a
large volcanic eruption dumping massive amounts of aerosols into the air), we should expect to see water vapor concentrations decrease.
If there actually were a causal link, then it might help explain the apparent low efficacy of
large volcanic eruptions on global temperatures.