As the stock market works out its manic episode of the past few days, let's get into a question of great importance:
if wage growth is really accelerating, what will that mean for price growth?
The government's proposal to raise the minimum wage to $ 15 an hour by January 2019 will bring it to roughly 55 per cent of the average wage,
if wage growth keep pace with inflation in the intervening period.
Not exact matches
And
if tomorrow's job report shows no signs of real
wage growth (which is what economists predict it won't), the Fed's case for a rate hike will start to look more faith - based than empirically driven.
However, as long as there is not significant job loss or reduction in economic
growth, there does not appear to be a great deal of harm in having a higher minimum
wage even
if the benefits are relatively modest.
If you want to retain your millennials in the long - run but can't necessary promise a set amount of annual
wage growth, there are a few things you can do.
For
wage growth, the bank said despite recent improvements it remains below what would be expected
if the economy no longer had slack in its labour force.
yields will hit the highs on close end of the day... equity markets setting up to be slammed tomorrow maybe but today they have run over weak shorts in the face of rates... the federal reserve see's this and again will wonder
if they are behind on hikes, strong data, major expansion in credit, lack of
wage growth rising bond yields and ballooning debt... rates will go much higher and equities will have revelations as to what that means for valuations
If I use the elasticity (price gains with respect to wage growth) from the full sample, the model predicts inflation hitting 2.8 % by the end of 2019; if I limit the sample to the 1980s, when the elasticity was at its highest, prices hit 3.7 % at the end of 2019, before which point the Fed would surely slam on the brake
If I use the elasticity (price gains with respect to
wage growth) from the full sample, the model predicts inflation hitting 2.8 % by the end of 2019;
if I limit the sample to the 1980s, when the elasticity was at its highest, prices hit 3.7 % at the end of 2019, before which point the Fed would surely slam on the brake
if I limit the sample to the 1980s, when the elasticity was at its highest, prices hit 3.7 % at the end of 2019, before which point the Fed would surely slam on the brakes.
We intend to closely monitor nominal
wage growth to see
if any pickup in it can help boost inflation.
If the profit recovery continues on its current trajectory — as many indicators suggest —
wage growth is likely to pick up.
If Fed officials view it as a ceiling, as their statements sometimes suggest, they'll likely tighten monetary policy once they hit it even if they've been missing 2 percent for years and tightening means slowing job and wage growth that has eluded too many workers in recent recoverie
If Fed officials view it as a ceiling, as their statements sometimes suggest, they'll likely tighten monetary policy once they hit it even
if they've been missing 2 percent for years and tightening means slowing job and wage growth that has eluded too many workers in recent recoverie
if they've been missing 2 percent for years and tightening means slowing job and
wage growth that has eluded too many workers in recent recoveries.
My only point is that
if, like the Fed, this is the model you've kind of got in your head, then there's another factor — another source of non-inflationary
wage growth — that you should seriously consider.
Different
wage series show different trends, but
if you mash them together, as is my wont, you find that the tightening job market has, in fact, given workers a bit more bargaining clout and nominal
wage growth basically moved up from 2 to 2.5 percent.
If the deficit is due to an economic recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative
growth in real gross domestic product, or to «extraordinary events», such as a natural disaster or war, that results in an «cost» of more than $ 3 billion, then the operating budgets of departments and agencies would be automatically frozen to pay for any
wage increases.
However,
if such constraints were operative, we should see
wage growth accelerating.
If the Fed were to continue hiking rates based on the current low rate of productivity
growth for fear that inflation would accelerate, that would tend to keep productivity
growth permanently depressed by preventing
wage pressures from pushing businesses to investment in productivity boosting technologies.
If we can get to and stay at full employment, history shows that the benefits in terms of
wage growth will accrue most to those with the least bargaining power.
«It's very poorly designed,
if it were intended to support hiring or
wage growth.»
Listen, and you go back years and think about
if you got this sort of
growth, this sort of
wage acceleration, that the rate of inflation would be much higher.
Contained nominal
wage growth is good
if you worry about inflation picking up... but inflation has already picked up to almost match nominal
wage growth, squeezing real wages to nearly zero
growth.
This assessment might be challenged by recent data as the unemployment rate kept on falling but
wage growth has stabilised at best,
if not slightly decelerated.
«
If the Senate passes this important legislation we, as some of the nation's largest employers, commit to invest more in Australia which will lead to employing more Australians and therefore stronger
wage growth as the tax cut takes effect.»
Jobs
growth needs to be accompanied by stronger
wage growth if consumer spending is to help drive our economic recovery.»
Inflation fears, specifically worries about accelerating
wage growth in the January employment report and that the job market might overheat
if it tightens further, contributed to rising interest rates.
Adds Yun, «With roughly 26 million more people in the U.S. 2 compared to the peak year of home sales in 2005 (7.08 million), the pace of existing sales would likely be more robust
if not for the economy's subpar
growth since the downturn and
wage gains that have failed to keep pace with rents and home prices.»
This is astounding
if true, but it still does not help solve the rising - home - price - lagging -
wage -
growth challenge.
If we're seeing inflation increase, that's primarily due to
wage growth.
Yun says their share of purchases would be higher
if not for the numerous obstacles they face: «Many Millennials have endured underemployment and subpar
wage growth, and rising rents and repaying student debt have made it very difficult to save for a downpayment.