Independent uncertainty estimates for coefficient based sea surface temperature retrieval from the Along - Track Scanning Radiometer instruments
Not exact matches
That would seem to be a good test of whether the method produces a good
estimate of TCR
independent of the
uncertainty in E. I tried such a thing, and my main objection to the Shindell (2014) paper is that when I test the «simple» Otto method vs. the Shindell method on the same model set in the paper, the Otto et al (2013) method still seems to perform better.
The
estimated size of and
uncertainty in current observed warming rates attributable to human influence thus provides a relatively model -
independent estimate of
uncertainty in multi-decade projections under most scenarios.
The
estimated size of and
uncertainty in current observed warming rates attributable to human influence thus provides a relatively model -
independent estimate of
uncertainty in multi-decade projections under most scenarios.
The conflicting projections and
estimates have left scientists and
independent experts in a fog of
uncertainty about whether mandating corn - based ethanol leads to higher or lower carbon emissions.
Unwillingness to combine the evidence in this way might be justified by the difficulties of
estimating the full range of
uncertainties of each analysis, but if the likelihood curves are taken seriously, combining all
independent evidence is a natural procedure that should be done.
Until multiple,
independent estimates of SST biases exist, a signicant contribution to the total
uncertainty will remain unexplored.
σw is the raw OLS
estimate of the standard
uncertainty, ν is the ratio of the number of observations to the number of
independent degrees of freedom, and σc is the corrected standard
uncertainty.
Quantitative
estimates of future rates of sea level rise are highly uncertain (
independent of any
uncertainties about future emissions), and the assessments have over-hyped the high
estimates
Adding the relevant years» total
uncertainty estimates for the HadCRUT4 21 - year smoothed decadal data (
estimated 5 — 95 % ranges 0.17 °C and 0.126 °C), and very generously assuming the variance
uncertainty scales inversely with the number of years averaged, gives an error standard deviation for the change in decadal temperature of 0.08 °C (all
uncertainty errors are assumed to be normally distributed, and
independent except where otherwise stated).
Our
estimate for MAT averaged across 3
independent methods was about -0.4 C with
uncertainty of about 0.4 C to 5C, depending on the method used.
But when I compute a mean as my
estimate and a standard deviation as its
uncertainty, I'm assuming that each model is producing
independent data, and I'm relying on the expectation that their errors will cancel each other out.
Structural bias
uncertainty estimate comes from three
independent proxy types, each with a 2 - sigma of 3C, so the 2 - sigma on the mean is about + -1.7 C.