Many Conservative MPs plan to vote tactically to try to stop Bercow, while, if
the Labour vote splits between the two candidates, a rival such as Tory grandee Sir George Young could be boosted.
Not exact matches
This roughly follows the
split in their parties: most
Labour MPs
voted in favour, the conservatives were
split evenly.
Rather
Labour's approach is now to highlight how
voting Green will
split the
vote on the left and help David Cameron back into power.
Forecasting that the Ukip
vote, which stood at 4,154 in 2015, would
split between
Labour and the Tories, Gill adjusted her strategy, and was aided by the momentum of the national campaigns.
«Under First Past the Post this would likely be disastrous for them,
splitting the
Labour vote and allowing the Conservatives or UKIP, or whoever, to gain more seats from them.
It essentially became pointless with the introduction of FPTP for all seats, before that many seats used Block Voting and there were alliance slates in places (in some, Liberals, Nat Libs and Cons all put up one candidate each to
LAbour's two; evidence was a lot of Lib voters supported
Labour with second
vote, but Tory and Nat Lib voters
split all over the place).
Were an individual Gloucestershire voter given up to seven
votes to distribute as s / he saw fit, it is of course impossible to know whether this would lead to seven Conservative MPs returned (as was the case in the 2015 election), or a mixture of parties (in 2005 the seats were
split three Conservative, two
Labour and two Liberal Democrat).
In Witney, David Cameron's local area, Ukip
split the right - wing
vote, allowing
Labour councillor Laura Price in with just ten more
votes than the Ukip candidate.
«It's down to two fundamentals: Theresa May's strong performances at Prime Minister's Questions and Chuka Umunna proving
Labour's
split at the first set of
votes.
Could a Ukip surge
split the Conservative
vote and let
Labour in?
The challenge for
Labour is that most
splitting occurs between ideologically adjacent parties, and because less partisan
Labour voters are more likely than Conservatives to
split their
vote.
Under First Past the Post this would likely be disastrous for them,
splitting the
Labour vote and allowing the Conservatives (or UKIP, or whoever) to gain more seats from them.
One — there is a sizeable chunk of the
Labour vote who are brand loyalists, in the event of a
split they would keep on
voting for
Labour, regardless of whether the left has
split away or the right has
split away.
For all these reasons, I think AV is actually a very good
voting system and I would put the referendum result down to several things — an ineffective Yes campaign (if you typed AV into Google, they didn't even come up on the first page of results), lies and smears spread by the No campaign, the association with Nick Clegg, the
split in
Labour over AV and finally, and not insignificantly, the fact that the Electoral Commission sent leaflets to every household containing an overly complex explanation that made AV look more complex than the insides of a nuclear reactor.
The UKIP
vote, which many had assumed would return to the Conservative party, ended up being
split between the Conservative and
Labour parties, adding to the mayhem of election night.
The Conservatives aligned themselves with the Leave
vote to gobble up UKIP
votes and to capitalise on a supposed Leave - Remain
split in
Labour's core
vote.
The truth is that the Lib Dems have
split the progressive
vote and continue to represent a danger to
Labour Party.
Labour is
split over the decision by some MPs who will not
vote for Mr Corbyn to nominate the left - winger in order to broaden the choice for
Labour's 260,000 members and registered supporters.
Labour won both seats - with increased majorities - as the UKIP
vote split between
Labour and the Tories.
Labour was badly
split on the issue at that time so Wilson promised a referendum in order to control the dissenters, but then announced at the last minute that the minor concessions he had won from the European Commission justified a
vote to stay in.
In the 1906 election, the LRC won 29 seats — helped by a secret 1903 pact between Ramsay MacDonald and Liberal Chief Whip Herbert Gladstone that aimed to avoid
splitting the opposition
vote between
Labour and Liberal candidates in the interest of removing the Conservatives from office.
[4] The 2017 general election result reveals Scotland as a divided nation, with
votes relatively evenly
split between
Labour, the Conservative and the SNP for the first time since the 1970s.
Breaking down 2010 Liberal Democrat voters by how much attention they pay to politics though shows a fascinating
split: 2010 Lib Dem voters who paid a lot of attention to politics were more likely to switch to
Labour; people who
voted Lib Dem in 2010 but who paid little attention to politics were more likely to
split to the Conservatives.
One
Labour figure — not an ideological Corbynite, incidentally — tells me a parliamentary
vote on a Brexit final deal could provide a useful pretext for such a
split.
Labour's electoral «college» is
split into three sections — MPs and euro MPs, union - affiliated members and ordinary party members, all of whom can
vote for more than one candidate in an order of preference.
At these local elections, the Conservatives benefitted from this restructuring of UKIP supporters, gaining Basildon, bringing Dudley to an even
split with
Labour and almost decimating
Labour's leads in North - East Lincolnshire and Nuneaton and Bedworth — all of which were heavily Leave -
voting areas.
Hypothethical example: If the non-Conservative
vote is
split between
Labour, Lib. - Dem., and Greens with 24 % each, a Conservative candidate could win with only 28 % of the
vote despite 72 % preferring a non-Conservative candidate.
«After 60 per cent
votes for sure fire election losers, IRA - supporting Shadow Chancellors and Scottish
Labour unnecessarily
splitting the party on issues over which it has no responsibility, we have a Shadow Minister telling «Stop the War» — a madcap coalition of trots, Islamists and anti-west fury chimps — that
Labour will consult them on how it will
vote on Syria.
But Julian Huppert's camp thinks the student
vote will
split three ways with
Labour and the Greens, helped in part by his own robust opposition to tuition fees.
But other voices say the Tories need to build bridges with the eurosceptic party or risk
splitting the right - wing
vote and letting
Labour in.
The reliance on the Greens to
split the
Labour vote seems to be part of a theme.
Had the centre - left
vote not been
split between Lab / Lib / Green, a majority should have been possible in 2010 (certainly
Labour would have held my constituency).
With the right
split between Tory and UKIP, and the LDs staying suppressed,
Labour should be able to get a majority on less than a third of the
vote.
Whether it could be successful enough to actually retain or win seats and have a long term future is an entirely different matter — FPTP does not forgive smaller parties without concentrated support, the anti-Conservative
vote is already
split and the most pro-remain areas tend to be held by
Labour.
30 % of current
Labour voters would go with the Corbyn wing of
Labour in the event of any
split — if Corbyn stays leader they will
vote Labour, if the Corbynites left they would
vote for his rival party.
We asked respondents how they would
vote if
Labour split, offering respondents two scenarios: one where opponents of Jeremy Corbyn left
Labour and set up their own party, the other where Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters ended up leaving
Labour and setting up their own party.
The issue of border control, as I wrote on Monday,
splits Labour's core
vote — the socially concerned and the poor — in two.
The
vote split the nation, including my own city of Nottingham, in two, and I share the concern that our strong collective position in favour of remaining in Europe was not consistently communicated to
Labour supporters.
Successive surveys have shown that
Labour loyalties - not just
voting behaviour but emotional identification with the party - declined steeply between 1979 and 1983, when the party had its protracted row about nuclear disarmament and the
split which led to the formation of the Social Democratic Party.
Were the
Labour party to
split there would be some clear practical advantages for the faction that was left in control of the
Labour party — they would keep the
Labour party's assets and property, their campaigning data and arguably much of the «Short money» (state funding for opposition parties based largely on
votes and seats won at the previous election).
Were there to be a
split an anti-Corbyn splinter party would also pick up support from respondents who aren't currently
voting Labour, giving them similar levels of support: about 13 % -14 %.
Back before the election YouGov asked a couple of questions asking how people would
vote if the
Labour party
split into a centrist party and a Corbynite
Labour party.
Supporters of Ms Formby, who also include Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell and other senior members of the
Labour frontbench, fear Mr Lansman could
split the left - wing
vote and allow a more moderate candidate to win.
Labour leader Ed Miliband plans to force a Commons
vote on police cuts to flush out Tory rebels and reveal Government
splits.
Members of the Fire Brigades Union have
voted to re-affiliate themselves to
Labour - more than a decade after
splitting from the party.
In Danehouse ward there was a tighter system for obtaining proxy
votes than in the 1999 election but overall the number of absent
votes were only a 100 less than in 1999, while
split fairly evenly between
Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
That would fairly make
labour the most eurosceptic, and thus you would be actually endorsing other rpo EU withdrawal parties to
split the tory
vote.
The reasons that
Labour will have a chance in 2015 are Ed Miliband's sensible leadership, left - wing Lib Dem voters moving to
Labour, the
voting system, a
split right - wing
vote and the coalition's many mistakes on the economy.
They will be
voted down and unless the Tories can be induced to
split, then
Labour faces a bleak future where it continually fails to set the agenda while the SNP (north of the border) and the Lib Dems (South of the border) collect the Remain
votes.
Later on, the 1993 general election saw the New Zealand
Labour Party's
vote split by The Alliance, which has been attributed to the vagaries of the first past the post electoral system.