He said the shift involved a Tory tendency to win in marginal seats and a greater distribution of
Labour voters in seats where it was pipped by third parties, adding: «It is these last two things which has turned a system that once looked as if it was to the advantage of Labour to the Tories» advantage, and there is a boundary review to come.
It occurs that I should probably source that - Observer, 23 Dec 2007, column by Denis MacShane entitled «An open letter to Nick Clegg»: «Before the 2001 election, I urged
Labour voters in seats where Lib - Dem candidates were best placed to beat off Conservatives to vote tactically.
Ukip sensed a chance at victory among the disaffected
Labour voters in the seat, which in various guises has been Labour for the past 50 years, ever since housing estates were built to relocate thousands of poor residents from central Manchester back in the early 1960s.
Not exact matches
She challenged analysis that talked up
Labour success at the election pointing out that the Conservatives piled on
voters in many northern
seats that had voted Leave, among older
voters and among the working class.
It essentially became pointless with the introduction of FPTP for all
seats, before that many
seats used Block Voting and there were alliance slates
in places (
in some, Liberals, Nat Libs and Cons all put up one candidate each to
LAbour's two; evidence was a lot of Lib
voters supported
Labour with second vote, but Tory and Nat Lib
voters split all over the place).
Were an individual Gloucestershire
voter given up to seven votes to distribute as s / he saw fit, it is of course impossible to know whether this would lead to seven Conservative MPs returned (as was the case
in the 2015 election), or a mixture of parties (
in 2005 the
seats were split three Conservative, two
Labour and two Liberal Democrat).
Instead of mucking
in with the multifarious resistance movement - which, as you rightly state here, does not require universal agreement
in order to progress, that sort of Leninist thinking is weedkiller to the grassroots -
Labour is already positioning itself for the next election, terrified of doing anything at all which might upset the few swing
voters in key marginal
seats that the party has repositioned itself towards over the past twenty years.
While a majority of
Labour voters backed Remain
in the referendum, swathes of
seats in the north and Midlands voted emphatically for Brexit.
The Survation poll commissioned by Unite union found the Lib Dems are on just 23 % behind
Labour on 33 %
in the
seat, when
voters were asked about their constituency vote.
Over the weekend, Alexander, the beleaguered Lib Dem MP and Chief Secretary to the Treasury, openly urged Tory and
Labour voters in his Highland's
seat to support his bid to hold it against an insurgent Scottish National party challenger, Highlands council leader Drew Hendry.
This would have the added benefit of lessening the importance of the million
voters in marginal, Middle England
seats, whose power to swing elections has led
Labour to pander excessively to their centre - right views.
The government is struggling to craft a motion that satisfies Liberal Democrat MPs — who
in many cases owe their
seats to anti-Iraq-war defections from
Labour in 2005 — as well as little England Tory backbenchers who, nudged by Ukip's anti-intervention stance yesterday, fear that Nigel Farage speaks for their
voters better than Cameron does.
Around 2m
Labour voters are believed to have voted for Leave, and Leave won
in 70 % of
Labour MPs»
seats.
In these
seats the ground campaign looks quite even, if not exactly intense: 15 % of
voters said they had heard locally from
Labour, and 14 % from UKIP.
Lisa Nandy, the MP for Wigan, warned that losing ground
in Bolton, Dudley and her own
seat of Wigan underlined the fact that
Labour's message was failing to appeal to
voters in towns where years of job losses had eroded the sense of community.
The answer to why UKIP are doing well
in Labour seats but are unlikely to win these
seats is that there are still a lot of Conservative
voters in Labour seats (25 % of the vote
in 2010 on average) and many of these are 2010
Labour defectors.
The 1990s electoral tactic of announcing drastic future expenditure targets and forcing
Labour to accept or reject them is designed for an electoral battleground for the swing
voters in the marginal
seats in contention between
Labour and the Conservatives, almost all of which are
in England.
Again, while the SNP has gained many votes and
seats, hundreds of thousands of Scottish Liberal Democratic, Conservative and
Labour voters have no representation
in Scotland — apparently denying a voice
in parliament to the Scottish unionist position.
As for whether the by - election should be happening at all, three quarters of
voters in the
seat (including a majority of
Labour voters) think Phil Woolas «did make false statements about his opponents and this probably affected the result», so rerunning the election was the right decision.
This was first explained
in my North Norfolk prediction and my current version assumes that residual UKIP
voters will split 2:1 between the Conservatives &
Labour in seats where UKIP have stood down.
Some
voters may also hear a patronising message to the effect that they are too dim to understand the consequences of their vote — and many live
in seats where UKIP present the only prospect of removing a sitting
Labour MP.
In poorer northern England urban
seats such as Redcar and Hull, disaffected working - class
voters deserted the Lib Dems as the local opposition to
Labour, opting instead for Ukip.
By mid-November,
in its key
seats,
Labour had contacted over 15,000
voters per constituency, 21 % on average.
In Labour's safest seat in the country at the 2010 election, 28 % of voters still supported other partie
In Labour's safest
seat in the country at the 2010 election, 28 % of voters still supported other partie
in the country at the 2010 election, 28 % of
voters still supported other parties.
The aspirational
voters of suburban England — middle - class
seats with falling unemployment and rising incomes — swung behind the Cameron - Osborne «long - term economic plan», while Ukip surged
in seats with large concentrations of poorer, white working - class English nationalists, many of whom sympathised with
Labour's economic message but not the people delivering it.
You're told that your
seat, which you only just managed to win last time, has just taken
in three weighty wards packed with
Labour voters.
Crosby's realisation that Lib Dem
seats could be taken and that
voters in those constituencies were persuadable, especially when the polls indicated a
Labour majority supported by the SNP, to vote Conservative.
The British Election Study found that
Labour gained more Leave
voters from other parties than it lost to the Tories, including 18 percent of 2015 Ukip
voters - a proportion that must have been lower
in safe Tory
seats, but correspondingly higher
in the safe
Labour heartlands where scooping up Ukip
voters was the Tories» entire strategy for success.
Many
Labour candidates, particularly
in northern
seats away from the major cities, say Corbyn's leadership is still problematic among some groups of
voters, and the most pessimistic believe May could still secure a much - increased majority of 80 to 100.
One of the ideas I didn't have space for here was a
Labour Country pressure group within
Labour, perhaps with a
seat on the NEC, pressing the priorities of
Labour voters in the country.
The boundary changes haven't made a vast difference to the
seat directly, although there may be more
Labour voters in the newly added part of the
seat.
As the BBC's political research editor, David Cowling, points out,
in Labour's safest
seat in the country at the 2010 election, 28 % of
voters still supported other parties.
Labour voters put us over the top
in a series of
seats won from the Conservatives
in 1997 and 2001.
We now represent a swathe of
seats in university towns where middle class
Labour voters were won over by our policy on tuition fees and our uncompromising internationalism on Iraq.
expressed his anxiety to me that wobbly
Labour voters may go Lib Dem
in places they couldn't possibly win, accidentally gifting those
seats to the Tories.
BME
voters are more likely to live
in safe
Labour seats where there may not be an active Conservative Party and statistically they are over-represented
in lower socio - economic groups, so you would expect them to be more likely to vote
Labour.
The existence of the dossier appears to be confirmation that
Labour sympathisers fear Mr Bailey's appeal amongst the large number of black
voters in the Hammersmith
seat.
That's the reason why we were hit so hard
in 97,
Labour and LD
voters going tactical made the result
in terms of
seats look a lot worse for us.
In Lib Dem target
seats Labour voters were far more likely to vote tactically against the Conservatives than against the Liberals by a margin of about 4 - 1.
In the last few weeks I have polled nearly 13,000 voters in the 40 Conservative seats with the smallest majorities: 32 of which the party is defending against Labour, and eight where the Liberal Democrats came second in 201
In the last few weeks I have polled nearly 13,000
voters in the 40 Conservative seats with the smallest majorities: 32 of which the party is defending against Labour, and eight where the Liberal Democrats came second in 201
in the 40 Conservative
seats with the smallest majorities: 32 of which the party is defending against
Labour, and eight where the Liberal Democrats came second
in 201
in 2010.
He's recognised that the opportunities now are against
Labour,
in seats where the Cons are third place and the
voters just as fed up with Brown as anywhere else, and looking for someone else to vote for.
In contrast to Lib Dem voters, when Labour voters in such seats were asked about tactical voting were still far more likely to vote Lib Dem to keep out the Tories than vice-vers
In contrast to Lib Dem
voters, when
Labour voters in such seats were asked about tactical voting were still far more likely to vote Lib Dem to keep out the Tories than vice-vers
in such
seats were asked about tactical voting were still far more likely to vote Lib Dem to keep out the Tories than vice-versa.
So, while
voters in the Speaker's
seat do usually have the opportunity to opt for an alternative candidate, this is curtailed by the lack of choice on offer: since 1987
Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems have all neglected to oppose a sitting Speaker.
It was actually 62 % of
labour voters voted to remain, and the
labour vote,
in 2015 was made up of many people who'd voted Libdem, or greens
in 2010,
labour having lost several of its supporters who'd voted for us
in 2010 when Gordon was leader, and many who'd voted
labour since the 60's, not voting for us for the first time, but the fact was, with our Scittish and inner London, Manchester, Liverpool vote, voting for us so heavily, ball areas called our heartlands, and Scotland aside, areas we increased our votes
in, at the last election, without catching those swing
seats, meant that many of our traditional areas Sunderland & Wales saw our core vote, massively vote leave,
Mrs Smith is a Conservative
voter, but living
in a safe
Labour seat doesn't see much of her local MP.
«Research has shown that
in this
seat any mention of local issues will push
voters to
Labour.
The Tories may do well
in the south of England, where they're fighting marginal
seats against the Liberal Democrats — fleeing Lib Dem
voters will go to
Labour, which should translate into safer Tory
seats — but it's
in the north of England and the East Midlands where there are many Conservative MPs hanging onto their
seats against
Labour challengers.
In fact a whopping 22 % of Labour voters in those marginal seats said they were willing to vote for the Lib Dems to keep David Cameron out of No 1
In fact a whopping 22 % of
Labour voters in those marginal seats said they were willing to vote for the Lib Dems to keep David Cameron out of No 1
in those marginal
seats said they were willing to vote for the Lib Dems to keep David Cameron out of No 10.
According to Comres, 56 % of SNP
voters in Labour - held
seats say their desire for independence is one of two main reasons they are now backing the nationalists, with 35 % saying that «
Labour no longer represents people like me» and 30 % saying «the other parties have broken promises on devolution.»
Labour targets Corby, Croydon Central, Plymouth Moor View, Morley and Outwood, Derby North, Gower, Thurrock and Telford all have smaller Conservative majorities than the additional number of
voters since 2015 - although
in these
seats, with much smaller student populations and
in some cases many elderly
voters, other factors are likely to play a far bigger role
in determining the outcome.