After the EU referendum it has become common place to discuss the regional disconnect afflicting the UK, with traditionally
Labour voting areas in the North of England and Wales having overwhelmingly backed Brexit.
Not exact matches
However, the distribution of the UKIP
vote may lead to the Tories» piling up
votes in
areas where they are too far behind
Labour for it to make a difference.
«Watch out for Remain -
voting areas swinging towards
Labour and Leave -
voting areas swinging towards the Tories, much as happened last year,» said Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde.
Scottish Tories currently campaigning for local government elections on May 4th tell stories about encountering long - standing
Labour voters in local authority
areas not exactly known for being friendly to Conservatives and who now declare their intention to
vote for «Ruth» and the Tories.
In Witney, David Cameron's local
area, Ukip split the right - wing
vote, allowing
Labour councillor Laura Price in with just ten more
votes than the Ukip candidate.
Because
Labour could, potentially, win if the previously
Labour but now non-voters can be persuaded to start turning out and
voting Labour again, but only if the non-
voting support base is fairly large, and without that sort of analysis over larger
areas it's hard to judge — it's definitely partially true in my ward,
Labour had disappeared electorally years ago, but won the seat in 2012, despite most other parties getting similar
votes to normal (and our support mostly going to an Independent we were tacitly backing).
Remember that only a few months ago Ed Balls said
Labour voters were justified in tactically
voting for Libdems in
areas where
Labour was uncompetitive to keep the Tories out.
In Akinbade's words on that day before he sojourned to the
Labour Party where he lost woefully recording only 8000
votes across 30 Local Governments and the
Area Office in Modakeke, Fatai Akinbade II stated that he was no longer needed in PDP because you Omisore had captured everything in the Party and was still brandishing it to mock them.
Labour and the Tories had equal
vote shares after the results were projected on to a national election, taking account of the many
areas that didn't hold elections this year.
More subtly, for a number of reasons (including to a greater or lesser extent, Brexit)
Labour has generally been gaining
votes from the young and those in high social class jobs and
areas which
voted remain in 2016, while losing
votes from older voters, those in lower social class occupations and those who
voted leave.
I decided to look primarily at
Labour seats — including some with colossal majorities — in
areas which
voted yes to independence, or where the result was very close (more...)
There were indications that the row over anti-Semitism may have hit
Labour's
vote in Barnet, an
area of north London with a large Jewish community.
A total of 83
Labour peers defied party orders to abstain and instead
voted for Britain to join Norway in the European Economic
Area, effectively keeping the UK in the single market - the largest rebellion by its peers in years.
Pollsters ComRes» survey of the
areas voting tomorrow put Ukip just two points behind
Labour's 24 %.
Although 3 of the 7 Ukip council seats in a havering were took from former
Labour councillors, and 5 of those seats would be described as working class
areas, the other two were above middle class
areas where the average price of a house is 650,000 ′, If anything in havering Ukips
vote destroyed he 4,000 majorities of some Tory councillors resulting in them winning with 350
votes
UKIP says it'll be the main challenger in traditionally
Labour -
voting areas such as the South Wales Valleys.
He had grown up in «traditionally Conservative
voting communities» and had fought for fairness in
areas where
Labour had failed.
I don't put much store in opinion polls, but if true it would only indicate roughly what you would expect to happen at this point in the parliament - 32 % isn't that much lower than
Labour got in the 2005 General Election and all it would suggest is that the Liberal Democrats are having a reversal - tactical
voting could see them holding onto many of their current seats, indeed it is even possible that if they got 17 % of the
vote that if it focused in an
area that they could actually end up with more seats, where the switches in support are occuring is crucial - if they are focused then if the Conservative Party were to get 39 % then it might still result in them getting fewer seats than
Labour or in extremis winning a 150 seat majority or so?
So there might be another explanation for the high Ukip
vote in
Labour areas.
Indeed, the amazing
vote on Lord Alli's European Economic
Area amendment, last week, demonstrates that it can be mobilised even when the
Labour Whips don't throw their backing behind it.
In Redditch, another Leave -
voting area,
Labour struggled, losing three seats while the Conservatives picked up four to take control of the council.
The best result at the constituency, or electoral
area, level for
Labour in the 2014 Local Elections came in Athy, where
Labour won 27.0 % of the first preference
votes and took two of the six seats in that electoral
area.
Public support for a second
vote is likely to embolden Mr Umunna's group of
Labour backbenchers who have been urging Jeremy Corbyn to back a Norway - style soft Brexit by pushing for Britain's membership of the European Economic
Area.
Apart from these counties / cities,
Labour failed to win more than one
vote in every eight cast in all of the other local authority
areas, although the party did succeed in winning more than ten percent of all the
votes cast in some other local authority
areas, namely Fingal (11.3 %), Kilkenny (11.2 %), Galway City (10.8 %) and South Dublin County (10.2 %).
At the same time,
Labour won just eight seats (of 139) in the South East and South West of England regions despite 1.3 million people casting
votes for the party in this
area.
although
Labour won more
votes than Sinn Fein in the more middle class electoral
areas (Figure 3).
(Killiney - Shankill was the only other six - seat electoral
area where
Labour won two seats despite taking just 18.6 % of the
vote there, helped by good
vote management between their two candidates and some degree of luck with the
vote transfers).
Bradford West and Tower Hamlets — both
areas in which the taken - for - granted BME
vote rebelled, delivering stinging defeats for
Labour in their heartlands — show that working via «elders» is less of a guarantee than has been assumed.
In Scotland, the
voting breakdown saw the SNP coming first in 22 of the 32 council
areas, the Tories in four, and
Labour and the Liberal Democrats in three each.
At these local elections, the Conservatives benefitted from this restructuring of UKIP supporters, gaining Basildon, bringing Dudley to an even split with
Labour and almost decimating
Labour's leads in North - East Lincolnshire and Nuneaton and Bedworth — all of which were heavily Leave -
voting areas.
The Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and
Labour leader Ed Miliband faced their first public appearances since the disappointing polls which seen Ukip take
votes in key
areas across the country.
Mr Blair said: «One of the things that I heard from Jeremy Corbyn earlier today is this notion that successive governments have let down the people in some of the
Labour areas that are
voting Leave.
SNP candidate Annabelle Ewing gained 28 % of the
vote but failed to regain the seat she lost to
Labour in 2005 after the
area was redrawn.
Of the 25 most marginal Tory - held
Labour targets, just three are in
areas that
voted Remain - Croydon Central, Brighton Kemptown, and Cardiff North.
It was actually 62 % of
labour voters
voted to remain, and the
labour vote, in 2015 was made up of many people who'd
voted Libdem, or greens in 2010,
labour having lost several of its supporters who'd
voted for us in 2010 when Gordon was leader, and many who'd
voted labour since the 60's, not
voting for us for the first time, but the fact was, with our Scittish and inner London, Manchester, Liverpool
vote,
voting for us so heavily, ball
areas called our heartlands, and Scotland aside,
areas we increased our
votes in, at the last election, without catching those swing seats, meant that many of our traditional
areas Sunderland & Wales saw our core
vote, massively
vote leave,
Success in working - class dominated
areas, such as South Shields, in which
Labour lost 1.6 % of their
vote, and UKIP made a grand entrance, show that Farage's pledge to «gun for
Labour» should be recognised as entirely credible.
Overall, the
Labour seats in these «No»
areas show a remarkably similar pattern to those in Glasgow — the SNP gains are reasonably uniform, but
Labour's losses (and hence the swing between the two parties) are correlated with the size of the 2010
Labour vote.
But people in the
area say that a
Labour focus on the dispute could give people a reason to go out and
vote.
«For many people in
areas that
vote Labour pretty strongly — Merseyside, Manchester, Sheffield — it's quite clear that people need to stay in the EU, because much of the redevelopment, regeneration of those cities has been led by the EU.
I must be the only one in the country who will be
voting Liberals, well I might as well get use to it now
labour has agreed to boundary changes in a deal with the Tories, my
area will become a Liberal
area after 102 years in
labour.
These
areas know that
Labour has failed but have not yet been given a reason to
vote Conservative.
It's a sad pattern that
Labour have channelled money away from
areas that made the mistake of
voting Conservative.
2) I think people in strongly
Labour / anti-Tory
areas are more reluctant to tell polsters they will
vote for us.
One is the decline of the Liberal Democrats and tactical
voting — one of the reasons the electoral system had worked against the Tories in recent decades was that
Labour and Lib Dem voters had been prepared to
vote tactically against the Tories, and the Lib Dems have held lots of seats in
areas that would otherwise be Tory.
Whether it could be successful enough to actually retain or win seats and have a long term future is an entirely different matter — FPTP does not forgive smaller parties without concentrated support, the anti-Conservative
vote is already split and the most pro-remain
areas tend to be held by
Labour.
I live in an
area of the country so solidly Conservative that a
vote for
Labour has become an exercise in futility.
The
areas we are missing registers for are disproportionately Conservative (based on the 2015 Election constituency results) which introduces a slight
Labour bias to the reported
vote amongst those who had their
vote validated.
In the
area now within the Midlands - North - West constituency, Fine Gael won 38.3 % of the
vote at the 2011 General Election, with Fianna Fail on 19.3 %,
Labour on 13.9 %, Sinn Fein on 13.5 %, the Green Party at 1.2 % and Others at 13.9 %.
In the
area now within the South constituency, Fine Gael won 37.9 % of the
vote at the 2011 General Election, with Fianna Fail on 18.8 %,
Labour on 18.3 %, Sinn Fein on 8.3 %, the Green Party at 1.3 % and Others at 15.4 %.
I decided to look primarily at
Labour seats — including some with colossal majorities — in
areas which
voted yes to independence, or where the result was very close.