Land surface air temperatures there effectively stopped warming around 1998.
Not exact matches
There are some various proposed mechanisms to explain this that involve the
surface energy balance (e.g., less coupling between the ground
temperature and lower
air temperature over
land because of less potential for evaporation), and also lapse rate differences over ocean and
land (see Joshi et al 2008, Climate Dynamics), as well as vegetation or cloud changes.
AGW and models say that
there will be an increase in the global
temperature [
air or sea or
land surface, take your pick] if the CO2 increases.
It's hard to imagine how Cowtan and Way could determine with any degree of certainty how «the hybrid method works best over
land and most importantly sea ice» when
there is so little
surface air temperature data over sea ice.
Since then
there are a number of papers published on why the warming was statistically insignificant including a recent one by Richardson et al. 2016 which tries to explain that the models were projecting a global tas (
temperature air surface) but the actual observations are a combination of tas (
land) and SST oceans, meaning projected warming shouldn't be as much as projected.
There is even a slightly finer distinction that is almost always skipped: when it comes to the
land record, we're talking about global
surface air temperature.
The single highest
land surface temperature (LST) recorded in any year, in any region, occurred
there in 2005, when MODIS recorded a
temperature of 70.7 °C (159.3 °F)- more than 12 °C (22 °F) warmer than the official
air temperature record from Libya.