The problem I have with the «coming out of the Little Ice Age» argument (apart from the lack of any actual mechanism) is that it is now much warmer than before
the LIA started.
If
the LIA started 500 years ago, then that precedes the start of the Maunder minimum by about 150 years.
So it is not necessary to go to an over-elaborate analysis to plot a graph showing that the CO2 saved N. Hemisphere or even the world from onset of the new
LIA starting in 1960s.
Marcott et al. mention that the lowest point was
the LIA starting about 200 years ago.
Not exact matches
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[Response: Good places to
start would be our glossary items on the
LIA and «Medieval Warm Period» (MWP), and the review paper by Jones and Mann (2004) cited above.
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[Response: Good places to
start would be our glossary items on the
LIA and «Medieval Warm Period» (MWP), and the review paper by Jones and Mann (2004) cited above.
From there we'd have to enter that abhorrent mess that is proxy data, which one could use to pick out a plethora of enormous warming trends if pulling from the
LIA, or again less so (possibly no trend, possibly negative) if
starting from the MWP, etc. but I'd rather not even...
EM Smith fails to mention that the NH Late spring / Early Summer snow cover has been in decline for some time and there is absolutely no way any return to glacial or even
LIA conditions could occur until this trend
starts to go the other way:
The most obvious omission by Carlin is the recovery from the
LIA, this is where the warming must
start and by this one event the +0.7 c (or is it 0.5 c or 0.6 c) is easily explained.
Sorry, wasn't there for the last ice age, or even the
LIA; don't know anyone who was, personally, and have no record of thermometers or other reliable measuring apparatus in place at the time; no video, no pictures, no sound, no data recording of any kind, merely the proxies in the geological and ice records, and they don't exactly give the sort of information I'd call a credible basis for concluding what exactly resulted in each ice age
starting when it did.
Conversely, the
LIA was at the end of the multi-millennial Milankovitch downward trend, after which CO2 forcing
started to dominate.
I've already analysed trends and predicted slight cooling till 2028, then 30 years of warming, but long - term (500 years) of cooling
starting in about 50 to 200 years from now, such as from the MWP to the
LIA — about 2.5 degrees in total over 500 years.
There was an enormous amount of snow and ice to melt at low levels following the
lia and when the temperatures
started rising around 1700 it
started to melt.
At roughly the same confidence level, or somewhat lower, an MWP that was warmer than the
LIA is probable, though the
start and end dates are obscure.
There may be an underlying warming trend, which
started as we began emerging from the
LIA, long before humans were emitting any substantial amounts of GHGs.
LIA was a period of a few centuries long, not a year long period like the 2014, where actually your argument
starts.
(Also, there are good reasons to think the trend originates centuries before the
start of the data set and at the initiation of the
LIA but here I am considering the data set).
Hopefully, it will end with warming towards the temperatures of the MWP because cooling towards temperatures of the
LIA could
start.
Natural global warming since the
LIA - rebound
started has not been consistent, nor even predictable.
I have claimed the Holocene ended in 1300ad, the
start of the
LIA sequence, when obliquity fell past 23.5 deg.
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It argues that the incline is from coming from the ending of the
LIA (that is what happens after ice ages, after all), and that we have natural oscillations over approximately 20 - 30 years since its end about 1800 — the very
start (and low point) of the BEST land graph.
Neven Last time that happened, or could have happened, humanity did extremely well, it wasn't until it all
started to cool again,
LIA, that things turned pear shape.
This ~ 900 - year cycle is certainly not sinusoidal (warming from the
LIA has been approximately linear), and if it continues then it will soon enter (or has
started to enter) a cooling phase.
and that it's just a coincidence that thermometers were invented right at the end of the
LIA when temperatures
started getting back to «normal»............... / snarc
GISS have deliberately chosen 1880 as their
starting point because this time falls right in the «trough» of a nadir that effectively marked the end of the
LIA and the planet's subsequent recovery from it.
Landscheidt was the first to predict a period of solar grand minimum
starting around now and should be recognised for this achievement just as you prescribe that Bray should be recognised above Hallstatt for the 2100/2500 year cycle in
LIA cluster events across the Holocene solar proxy record.
Sailor it was bloody cold in the 1700s and 1800s, but not as cold as the
LIA, temperatures went back up by 1650, the deep trough in temp drop was 1500ish to 1650, temps went up a bit and plateaued and
started rising again round 1950, so no, the earth has been on a warming trend since 1650
Or, with proper mechanisms, it didn't change really and the Earth is still warming as it always has since the end of the
LIA, or changes may be identified ad hoc dependent on when certain records were
started, the mechanisms not having existed before then.
If we now
start to see a cooling globe then in 400 or 500 years the CO2 levels would be pretty much back to what they would have been during the
LIA.
«Even if it (the solar effect) is only 0.1 C over a solar cycle and a little more over a 500 year period from
LIA to date then that's a good enough
starting point for my NCM because all such solar variability needs to do is alter the size, position and intensity of the polar high pressure cells against an opposing force from oceanic variability.
The upward going trend has to be added to Scafetta, see Literature on German Amazon.de ISBN 978 -3-86805-604-4, which
starts at the bottom of the
LIA (1650) and culminates by year 2000 into the temp plateau of the 21.
Even if it is only 0.1 C over a solar cycle and a little more over a 500 year period from
LIA to date then that's a good enough
starting point for my NCM because all such solar variability needs to do is alter the size, position and intensity of the polar high pressure cells against an opposing force from oceanic variability.
According to our reconstruction from 1538 the first major trough was reached around 1607 (Figure 11) It can be seen as descending from a peak attained by 1560, following a century long broadly warming period (according to Lamb) that punctuated the
LIA into two parts, a relatively short period following the end of the MWP, and another following a return to periods of bitter cold weather at the
start of the 17th century that is confirmed both in this reconstruction and that by Lamb.
I've
started reading through the MCA /
LIA PAGES links suggested here.
This means that the about 1 °C increase from the
LIA till current temperatures (including Pinatubo and El Niño's) is maximum responsible for 10 ppmv of the 100 ppmv increase in CO2 since the
start of the industrial revolution...
Why are all climate graphs
starting with the end of the
LIA and do not go back to around 1100 or so and show the drop into the
LIA in context with the recovery out of it?
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