It is, however, a classic
Lib tactical vote seat, I estimate that more Lab voters voter Lib than Lab now.
Not exact matches
A recent Channel 4 News / YouGov poll suggested otherwise, reporting that potentially 9 Labour and 2
Lib Dem seats could saved from the SNP by
tactical voting between unionist parties.
For those living in constituencies where Labour and the Liberal Democrats are expected to share first and second place,
tactical voting by Conservative supporters in favour of the
Lib Dems increases the chances that another Con -
Lib coalition would have a majority.
That is why the left should not make concessions to the
Lib - Lab strategy implied in the call for «
tactical voting».
However, I'm always slightly wary of constituency polls in Liberal Democrat held seats — the effect of incumbency and
tactical voting is far higher for
Lib Dem MPs, and when you ask a generic
voting intention I think many people give their national preference, rather than how they would actually
vote in their own constituency.
Because 30 % of those polled by ORB in May said they were considering a
tactical vote to stop a hard Brexit — which might, variously, mean
voting for a Labour candidate who opposed it, a Green or a
Lib Dem.
The
Lib Dems have always benefited from
tactical voting - although their supporters stopped supporting Labour against us by and large in 2005.
In contrast to
Lib Dem voters, when Labour voters in such seats were asked about
tactical voting were still far more likely to
vote Lib Dem to keep out the Tories than vice-versa.
The Government has now been defeated four times by a
tactical alliance of Labour, the SNP and the
Lib Dems — including on a Budget
vote.
One is the decline of the Liberal Democrats and
tactical voting — one of the reasons the electoral system had worked against the Tories in recent decades was that Labour and
Lib Dem voters had been prepared to
vote tactically against the Tories, and the
Lib Dems have held lots of seats in areas that would otherwise be Tory.
It is logical for a coalition fighting one last first - past - the - post election to seek a mandate for electoral reform (though how far the
Lib Dems reciprocating would benefit Labour is partly a
tactical judgement about how their
vote would divide).
And the
Lib Dems are no stranger to this what with their
tactical voting, pact with Labour and decapitation strategies.
The available evidence suggests that after some
tactical «unwind» in the 2011 local elections the trend was a return to local
tactical voting for the
Lib Dems by 2013.
Under AV there will be little opportunity for
tactical voting and the
Lib Dems will suffer as a result.
Cable did not say whether he would push for a progressive alliance at the next general election, but as a former Labour councillor many expect he would be keen on the idea of
tactical voting to help
Lib Dem, Labour and Green candidates to oust Tory MPs.
While many progressives are calling for anti-Tory
tactical voting by
Lib Dem supporters in the key 100 Labour - Conservative marginals, Clegg rejects this advice.
This
tactical voting also took place in
Lib / Con marginals which may have had the ironic effect of letting the Tories win.
Interestingly comparing the standard
voting intention question and the constituency question a quarter of Conservative voters say they will actually
vote Lib Dem in Hallam, suggesting significant Tory
tactical voting propping up Nick Clegg.
Both Ashcroft and ComRes asked a
voting intention question that prompted people to think about their own constituency, candidates and MP to try and get at the personal and
tactical voting that
Lib Dem MPs are so reliant upon.
While Tory
tactical voting has averted a deeper
Lib Dem party crisis, the by - election has cost Nick Clegg his governing strategy — his warnings to his party not to seek distinctiveness within the coalition now scrapped in favour of «Operation Detach», and an increasing amount of yellow dissent at every level.
This is something that was first used in the big PoliticsHome polls of marginal seats back before the last election — it makes hardly any difference when you ask people in most seats, but makes the world of difference when you ask people living in seats where the
Lib Dems are in contention, presumably picking up
tactical voting considerations.
The same goes for the coming election: a
tactical vote is still worthwhile, because, if there is to be a Conservative - led government, it would be better if it were held back by the
Lib Dems.
On the one hand, coalition government has massively boosted the potential for
tactical voting: it's made many Conservatives comfortable backing
Lib Dems and vice versa.
I wonder how many (anti-Labour)
tactical votes were wasted on
Lib Dems here in 2015, and if Conservatives will be the main beneficiaries of them (though
Lib Dem - UKIP switching is more common than often given credit for, too).
With three - way battle between Ukip, Labour and Tories too close to call, former
Lib Dem peer urges
tactical vote for Labour's Scobie to keep Farage and Tories out
If the
Lib Dem
vote crumbles away to nothing (from
tactical unwind) the Tories could probably get in to the high 20s here.
Thus my prediction is the
Lib Dems will lose
vote share and come forth due to Tory
tactical voters abandoning them for the Tories and Labour / Greens squeezing their base
vote.
The
Lib Dems will be nowhere close to winning and I wouldn't be shocked if their
vote share flat lines or even falls as a large chunk of the 19 % they got last time were loaned
tactical votes from the Tories due to the coalition my
vote included.
It is purely the hard work of the
Lib Dems locally which enables this degree of
tactical voting to persist at the present time.
This time around I expect much of the Labour
tactical vote to return to the
Lib Dems as a) more people actually realise the
Lib Dems actually did a good job holding the Tories in check during the Coalition and because Labour is doing so badly so wavering Labourites will once again
vote Tom to stop the Tories here.