With 4,770
Liberal Democrat votes «wasted», we are working to secure a tactical vote in order to gain the seat.
Labour are also doing worse the better they did in 2010, but mainly because they are getting more
Liberal Democrat votes where they started weaker and not so much because they are shedding votes to UKIP more where they started stronger.
In 2007 Baston looked at 256 opinion polls, and at the election results that would have been produced by three electoral systems: first past the post, and two AV scenarios — one in which
the Liberal Democrat votes went to the Tories and Labour, and another in which the Lib Dem second preference votes went to Labour.
«We cross all social divides - we are picking up a large number of old Labour votes, we have picked up quite a serious number of
Liberal Democrat votes, and one in five of our voters are people that haven't voted for 25 years or more.
The SNP's success hinged upon a collapse in both the Labour and
Liberal Democrat votes.
This concentration of
Liberal Democrat votes into key seats will be paramount in distributing their declining vote share into their number of MPs come May 8th 2015.
The Liberal Democrats voted against renewing control orders, labelled «imperfect and in need of extensive revision» by home affairs spokesman Nick Clegg.
YouGov's research for the Sunday Times newspaper put
the Liberal Democrat vote share at just nine per cent, with Labour on 41 % and the Conservatives on 34 %.
They were undone, however, by a collapse in
the Liberal Democrat vote which meant the party lost more seats to Labour where Labour was the second - placed candidate than they gained directly from the Lib Dems where they were the challengers.
For example, if Labour managed to get its act together, a big «if» I know, and they put an amendment to the voting reform bill designed to introduce AV + on to a referendum question rather than AV, how will
the Liberal Democrats vote?
This forecast assumes a «normal» pattern for
the Liberal Democrat vote, which of course may well not be the case (the alternative of giving the Lib Dems the same incumbency effect as found for the other two main parties has them returning to around their 2010 vote share, which at this stage of the game seems unlikely).
This can not be done in the same way as it is for the Conservative, Labour, or
Liberal Democrat vote for the simple reason that the data does not exist — UKIP was not a real feature of local elections until very recently.
Although there are problems with predicting
the Liberal Democrat vote the model suggests that they will be substantially down on their 2010 vote but will perhaps not face the routing they did at the European Parliament elections.
The headline impact of that first debate was nothing short of spectacular: within a single week,
the Liberal Democrat vote share rocketed up from 19 per cent to 29 per cent.
A friend tells me that she was talking to
her Liberal Democrat voting parents the other night, and they were expressing horror at the coalition.
At the 2011 Scottish Parliament election,
the Liberal Democrat vote collapsed and the Scottish National Party went on to win a majority in the Parliament.
There also looks to be a significant redistribution of the 2010
Liberal Democrat vote.
Although 21
Liberal Democrats voted against the increase, and a further eight abstained or did not vote, 27 MPs, including Clegg, voted for the increase.
Firstly, in Conservative - vs - Labour marginals the Conservative vote is largely unchanged from the general election, but
the Liberal Democrat vote has dropped to the benefit of Labour, this means on a uniform swing Labour would gain about 28 seats from the Conservatives (though these would be seats that the Conservatives gained at the last election, so in practice the Tories would be helped by the incumbency bonus of the new MPs).
And while
the Liberal Democrat vote is less than half what it was in 2010, it would be even lower without the 400,000 new supporters it has gained from other parties.
-LSB-...] there are three progressive votes for every two conservative votes — the combined Labour and
Liberal Democrat vote is currently -LSB-...]
This slightly leading question increased
the Liberal Democrat vote share by just * one * point.
On the other, we keep the New Labour flag flying by treating the collapsing
Liberal Democrat vote as a distraction to be ignored entirely, because the only votes that count are those won from the Conservatives.
Besides, the Tories are not every UKIP voter's second - choice and, anyway, the real battle is for
the Liberal Democrat vote.
He added: «This treaty was negotiated in secret and granted only cursory scrutiny in December 2003, where only
the Liberal Democrats voted against the proposals.
Last year
the Liberal Democrats voted at their Spring conference in favour of a law - making Cornish Assembly, making it official party policy.
The amendment tabled by the rebel Tory backbencher Dominc Raab was defeated 241 to 97 votes after Labour and
the Liberal Democrats voted against the measure.
Constituency polls by Lord Ashcroft suggest that prompting people to think about the candidates in their constituency when asking people whom they will vote for results in much more
Liberal Democrat voting in Liberal Democrat seats.
Despite the result in Gibraltar,
the Liberal Democrat vote fell across the South West region (and the whole of the UK), and the sitting Liberal Democrat MEP, Graham Watson, described as a «stalwart» and «advocate» of Gibraltar, [2] lost his seat.
A more focused expansionist visit campaign capitalising on Nick Clegg's popularity may potentially have increased
Liberal Democrat vote share elsewhere.
... Indeed, the whole of the last Parliament — covering five years - saw just 39 divisions in which at least one
Liberal Democrat voted against their party line; in just over five months, the total for the 2010 Parliament has already reached 31.
Liberal Democrats voted for the boundary review that should give the Conservatives up to twenty extra MPs at the next election and in return he delivered on holding the AV referendum.
Instead, the shifts we find among Britain's growing minority communities are the same as those found in the wider electorate in England and Wales: incremental Conservative and Labour advance, a collapse in
Liberal Democrat voting, and a surge in support for minor party entrants.
Vote wise,
the Liberal Democrat vote notably fell back from their previous elections» consistent increases, whereas the Conservatives managed their best vote share since 1992.
The reasons for the difference between Labour's big lead at Westminster and almost non-existent lead for the mayoralty is partly down to
the Liberal Democrat vote, which breaks in Johnson's favour, and partly down to there being more «Labour for Boris» voters than there are «Tories for Ken».
«A # 10,000 pay increase is completely unacceptable and that is why the Welsh
Liberal Democrats voted against the budget.
Since the election Labour have risen from 30 % to around about 40 % in the polls, the majority of this increase being at the expense of the collapsing
Liberal Democrat vote (there is a small amount of churn between Labour and the Conservatives, but no great shift.
They'll repeat the question, with greater incredulity, if
some Liberal Democrats vote with the Government, some against - and some abstain.
The liberal democrat vote will also be badly damaged and more of them will migrate to labour than to the conservatives and more to the conservatives than to UKIP.
Not exact matches
I read a terrific study by Richard Charnin, who is a mathematician, a
liberal Democrat, an eccentric but brilliant guy, who concludes on the basis of the exit polls and the actual
vote on a precinct - by - precinct basis that the swing can not be that wide without widespread voter fraud.
A small majority (54 %) of those who
voted for the governing federal
Liberals also take the position that B.C.'s government is in the wrong, while most — but far from all — past federal New
Democrats support the party's provincial wing in B.C.:
«When I brought forward the British Columbia Oil and Gas Activities Amendment Act, 2014, all the
Liberal government needed to do was
vote yes,» said New
Democrat MLA for Stikine Doug Donaldson.
Nineteen
Liberal, New
Democrat, and Progressive Conservative MLAs
voted in favour of the motion, but it failed after 31 PC and Wildrose MLAs stood up and
voted against it.
Only in three rural constituencies did these two parties earn at least 11 % of the
vote (New
Democrats Mandy Melnyk in Athabasca - Sturgeon - Redwater and Bruce Hinkley in Wetaskiwin - Camrose and
Liberal Pete Helfrich in Banff - Cochrane.
The lack of conservative
vote split that the New
Democrats,
Liberals and Alberta Party had hoped to capitalize on may have vanished the moment Ms. Smith crossed the floor.
The vacuum in the
Liberal leadership is good news for the PC Party, Rachel Notley «s New
Democrats and the Alberta Party, who will try to offer
Liberal voters a new home to park their
votes.
VICTORIA - B.C. New
Democrat Leader John Horgan issued the following statement on the B.C.
Liberals losing the confidence of the legislature: «Today's
vote is a step toward a new government that puts regular British Columbians first.
Liberal Boomers, who seldom if ever seriously criticize the legions of conservative - demonizers in your midst, for this post I will mostly join Mr. Druckenmiller in accusing you outright, that is, I will act as if this was your premeditated plan motivated by selfish interest, and not a pattern of political self - delusion that you fell into, given the drip - drip - drip of
Democrat talking points over the years, given your gleeful listening to those who dismissed conservatives as hateful dunces, so that you ceased to even consider the NUMBERS conservatives kept pointing to, and just kept on doggedly
voting D.
2011judgment: so you «know» that god's response to people
voting for
Liberal Democrats is to kill people an destroy homes in the heart of the Bible Belt (you know, the part of the country where
Liberal Democrats typically have a hard time getting elected)?
Rush Limbach's comments will be taken as gospel for the Right, but they truely illustrate the reason the GOP is in turmoil... the leaders need the Religious Right to win, but know they are being intellectually dishonest because their values do not match the Religious Right, except on the abortion issue, whhich will never go away because the GOP needs that 20 % of voters who would otherwise
vote Democrat becasue the
Liberal values match Christian values more closely.