Argo Local Markets Fund (ALMF, $ 7 mio): This is a new long / short emerging markets
local currency bond fund, launched in Nov - 2012.
Reflecting the strong demand and continuous development, the size of the Asian
local currency bond markets, measured by the S&P Pan Asia Bond Index, expanded by more than 9 % to USD 6.94 trillion in 2014.
The iShares J.P. Morgan EM
Local Currency Bond ETF provides exposure to bond issues across several emerging markets — a riskier proposition on its face than investing in developed countries with better credit ratings, which helps explain the high yield.
Many Pan Asian
local currency bond markets are now made easier for foreign investors to access, particular through the use of exchange traded products.
The size of Asia's
local currency bond markets, as measured by the S&P Pan Asia Bond Index, continued to expand and grew 17 % to reach USD 12.1 trillion in 2017.
The overall
local currency bond market in Indonesia, as represented by the S&P Indonesia Bond Index, rose 14.05 % YTD, and it was the best - performing country within Pan Asian bond universe.
The size of Asia's
local currency bond markets, as measured by the S&P Pan Asia Bond Index increased 21 % to USD 8.40 trillion in 2015, which reflected the continuous market expansion.
We use a five - year bond as representative of the approximate duration risk an investor faces in a broad emerging markets
local currency bond index.
Exhibit 1 lists the yield - to - worst of the ten
local currency bond markets tracked by the S&P Pan Asia Bond Index.
The local currency bond market, as tracked by the S&P China Bond Index, grew over 19 % in the past year.
Question One: How big is Japan's
local currency bond market?
The size of
the local currency bond market in Japan (tracked by the S&P Japan Bond Index) stood at JPY 1,154 trillion as of Jan. 27, 2016, which is equivalent to USD 9.7 trillion.
It is 1.7 times the size of
the local currency bond market in China, as measured by the S&P China Bond Index.
The size of Asia's
local currency bond markets, as measured by the S&P Pan Asia Bond Index, gained 20 % to reach USD 10.3 trillion in 2016, reflecting steady market expansion.
Other investors may want to consider the iShares Emerging Markets
Local Currency Bond ETF (LEMB), iShares Emerging Markets Corporate Bond ETF (CEMB), or iShares Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETF (EMHY).
In the EM
local currency bond space, Colombia (10 - year yield -37 bp), South Africa -LRB--18 bp), and Ukraine -LRB--17 bp) have outperformed this week, while the Philippines (10 - year yield +27), Brazil (+20 bp), and Mexico (+4 bp) have underperformed.
The two largest holdings, which each represent 15 % of the total, are iShares MSCI EAFE Small - Cap ETF and iShares Emerging Markets
Local Currency Bond ETF.
Concurrently, Moody's has lowered Angola's foreign - currency bond ceiling to B1 from Ba3, the foreign currency deposit ceiling to B3 from B2, and
the local currency bond and deposit ceilings to Ba2 from Ba1.
But concerns about FX risk management were far from eliminated and the experience reinforced the importance of having
local currency bond markets and well - functioning FX hedging markets.
These initiatives have included various measures to encourage broader participation in
local currency bond markets, including by non-residents.
Continued foreign currency bond issuance by Asian residents and foreign participation in
local currency bond markets has contributed to this growth.
And indeed, Rosneft this week raised some $ 9.4 billion through the sale of
local currency bonds, at a time when it has no other conceivable use for such a huge pile of cash.
The emerging market slaughter will continue, especially for countries with weaker fundamentals; their equities, currency and
local currency bonds and foreign currency bonds bearish slump has not yet reached the bottom.
Finally, we prefer hard - currency EM bonds — particularly high - yielding oil exporters such as Russia, Colombia and Kazakhstan — and short - duration
local currency bonds in some countries.
Bonds denominated in renminbi in the Hong Kong market, known as CNH bonds, outperformed dollar - denominated and other
local currency bonds in Asia last year, with a more than 6 % total return in dollar terms, as investors sought stability in the resilience of the Chinese currency, according to a report by HSBC.
Emerging - market
local currency bonds returned almost 3 per cent, while equities from developing nations also clung onto gains.
The S&P Pan Asia Bond Index, which seeks to track
local currency bonds in 10 countries and is calculated in USD, continued to be weighed down by the weakness of local currencies in 2016, dropping 1.86 % for the year.
The S&P Pan Asia Bond Index tracks the performance of
the local currency bonds in the 10 Pan Asian countries.
Despite the weakness in local currencies, the S&P Pan Asia Bond Index, which is designed to track
local currency bonds in 10 countries and is calculated in USD, delivered a total return of 1.45 % for 2015.
As tracked by the S&P Japan Bond Index, a broad base benchmark that measures the performance of the government and corporate
local currency bonds in Japan, the total outstanding par amount have reached over 1,070 trillion Yen this August.
Given recent price and economic momentum, we are reasonably confident the bear market in EM assets — five years long for EM equities and currencies, and three years long for EM
local currency bonds — came to an end in January 2016, and the early stages of a bull market look to be well underway.
These local currency bonds will be more volatile, but could prove to be a better diversifier for a portfolio that's mostly devoted to U.S. stocks and bonds.
And so «credit» excludes
all local currency bonds.
Not exact matches
There are currently no emerging - market fixed income products denominated in Canadian dollars; investors have to buy either American dollar securities (also called hard dollar
bonds) or the
local currency option.
Both come with exchange risks, but U.S. dollar
bonds are usually less volatile than those denominated in
local currency, says Lian.
IIF noted in a recent report that plans to privatize several state - owned enterprises beyond the Aramco deal, a doubling in the size of the domestic stock market and the trading of
local currency government
bonds on the Saudi exchange, which began this month, all deepen the kingdom's capital markets.
It puts 25 % into foreign stocks, 25 % into U.S. Treasuries, and 10 % each into commodities, emerging - market
currency, bank loans, high - yield
bonds, and 5 % each into TIPS and
local -
currency emerging - market debt.
That puts pressure on
currencies, because
bonds are mostly denominated in the
local coinage.
A well - functioning
local -
currency bond market allows a government much more economic policy flexibility than can be experienced when tied to foreign
currency borrowing.
As usual, the development of
local currency sovereign
bond markets has helped by providing a benchmark for pricing.
Issuers may be located in any geography, but holdings must be either denominated in one of the G10
currencies, or issued outside of the home market of the issue
currency — effectively excluding
local -
currency emerging - market
bonds.
That group issued a report in September, identifying ways international development banks and other organizations can support the development of
local currency green
bond markets around the world.
Capital controls have historically been as much about preventing foreigners from buying
local government
bonds as it has been about preventing destabilizing bouts of flight capital, and living in China, where an aggressive demand for the privileges of reserve
currency status coincide with equally aggressive policies that prevent the RMB from achieving reserve
currency status (and that transfer ever more of the «benefits» to the US) made clear the huge gap in rhetoric and practice.
Yet the
currency is likely to remain weak as zero - anchored Japanese 10 - year
bond yields encourage
local investors to buy higher - yielding foreign
bonds.
The government's elevated gross borrowing requirements estimated at around 17 % of GDP per year between 2017 and 2019 are mainly driven by sizeable maturing government
bonds — in particular,
local currency USD - indexed
bonds — on top of fiscal deficits averaging around 3.8 % of GDP.
Australia's central bank signaled today it may resume cutting interest rates as soon as next month if weaker - than - forecast growth slows inflation, sending the
local currency and
bond yields lower.
When GEM is in
bonds, investors would use either their
local country's aggregate
bond index or a currency - hedged version of the US Aggregate Bond In
bond index or a
currency - hedged version of the US Aggregate
Bond In
Bond Index.
«GEM (
Local)» is when foreign investors trade permanently on their local stock exchange using currency - hedged ETFs for both equity and bond tr
Local)» is when foreign investors trade permanently on their
local stock exchange using currency - hedged ETFs for both equity and bond tr
local stock exchange using
currency - hedged ETFs for both equity and
bond trades.
The S&P Indonesia
Bond Index tracks the performance of
local currency denominated government and corporate
bonds from Indonesia and with a Read more -LSB-...]
Economic fundamentals have turned a corner and a more stable U.S. dollar suggests an opportunity for
local -
currency bond investing.