How much excess return are investors getting for remaining parked in
low vol stocks when the prices of other stocks are spiking up?
I rank stocks by their n day standard deviation and create
a low vol stock index and a high vol index, my summarised results are below.
Not exact matches
By putting 20 % each in the three just mentioned asset classes, then 20 % in high dividend
stocks and 20 % in
low volatility
stocks, I got to a portfolio with 5.2 % income at 4.8 %
vol.
Small caps (Russell 2000) and to a lesser extent Nikkei and EM equities in
stocks all have below - average
vol and correlations today to S&P 500; makes index hedges cheaper, although the
lower level of realized volatility means consensus is looking for an even better entry point to buy equity
vol.»
Some ETFs feature
stocks that are specifically selected to be
low in volatility, such as iShares Edge MSCI Min
Vol USA (USMV) ETF, whereas other ETFs use a hedging strategy to minimize volatility, holding
stocks that perform well in up - and - down markets.
In both cases, the demand for high -
vol stocks is raised relative to the demand for
low -
vol stocks, creating an opportunity to buy
low -
vol stocks at attractive prices.
Still, the value effect received its most famous academic endorsement in a 1992 paper by finance professors Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, who defined value
stocks as those shares that trade at a
low price relative to their book value («The Cross-Section of Expected
Stock Returns,» Journal of Finance,
Vol.
Why a
low vol strategy works: investors are drawn to
stocks that catch their attention.
Large capitalization
stocks are more likely to be
low vol whereas small capitalization growth
stocks thrive on high volatility and high beta.
Thus,
low vol ETFs are over-weighted in large - cap
stocks and under - weighted in small - cap
stocks.
I know things work until they don't, but the «smart beta» S&P 500 ETF that chooses
stocks within the index seem doing better than S&P 500 on backtesting (equalweight,
low vol, dividend aristocrat).
It may appear paradoxical that
low vol strategies are doing well when interest in speculative, penny -
stock strategies is growing.