Lower emission scenarios show significant advantages in terms of minimizing impacts on AW but do not eliminate these impacts altogether.
Not exact matches
Recent projections
show that for even the
lowest emissions scenarios, thermal expansion of ocean waters21 and the melting of small mountain glaciers22 will result in 11 inches of sea level rise by 2100, even without any contribution from the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.
The numbers here relate to the IPCC's
lowest emissions scenario, RCP2.6, which was specifically designed to
show how warming can be limited to two degrees.
Differences exist in projections for the stabilization and business - as - usual
emission scenarios, with the former consistently
showing lower magnitudes of change than the latter.
To suggest (by implication or otherwise) that projected
emissions will somehow deliver a
lower range, means
showing that the entire data - set of available
emission scenarios (not just SRES) are over-estimated.
Figure B
shows the response of the same simple model to the
lowest of the
emissions scenarios considered in 1992 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
In our study we also
showed that, while difference between high and
low immigration
scenarios is 70 Mt of greenhouse gas
emissions in Australia's by 2020, the world's greenhouse gas
emissions would increase by less than half of this amount since immigrants to Australia come from countries that have per capita
emissions levels less than half of Australia's (around 42 %).
In such a
scenario, our report
shows the wrong investments, just in the oil & gas sector could not only waste but destroy # 2.3 trn, financing
emissions along the way instead of the
low carbon transition.
However, the model results are important because they
show that, in all likely
scenarios of future greenhouse gas
emissions, record daily highs should increasingly outpace record
lows over time.
«Our modeling
shows that a high
emissions scenario could reduce global fishing revenue by an average of 10 percent, while a
low emissions scenario could reduce revenues by 7 percent,» said study co-author Rashid Sumaila, a professor at UBC's Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries and Liu Institute for Global Studies.
Blue / green line groups
show the
low, mid and high projections of the 2007 IPCC report, each for six
emissions scenarios.
Note that even with the
lower climate sensitivity, the model
shows the planet warming 3 °C by 2100 in this
emissions scenario (see the figure caption for further details).
There has been a slowing in the growth of sulphur
emissions in recent decades, and more recent
emission scenarios show lower emissions than earlier ones (Chapter 3, Section 3.2.2).
This IPCC chart
shows future projections under a
low -
emissions scenario (in blue) and a high -
emissions scenario (in red):
For the future, the IPCC projections for very high
emissions (red, RCP8.5
scenario) and very
low emissions (blue, RCP2.6
scenario) are
shown.
Figure 1 - 6
shows that the SRES
scenarios cover most of the range of global energy - related CO2
emissions from the literature, from the 95th percentile at the high end of the distribution down to
low emissions just above the 5th percentile of the distribution.
The two
scenarios shown in these maps are the B1 (lower) and A2 (higher) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions S
scenarios shown in these maps are the B1 (
lower) and A2 (higher)
scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions S
scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on
Emissions ScenariosScenarios.
Lower map
shows model projections of the change in storage by 2100 as a result of nitrogen and phosphorus limits, under a high
emissions scenario (RCP8.5).