Measured changes in global temperature show ups and downs, with some periods of a decade or more defying the long - term trend.
There is no «near impossibility of
measuring the changes in global temperatures».
I have commented many times in these posts of the near impossibility of
measuring the changes in global temperatures which AGW theory predicts.
Not exact matches
IN A rare instance of humans beating one of the impacts of climate
change,
measures to combat malaria appear to be neutralising the expected
global increase of the disease driven by rising
temperatures.
Now a group of American and British scientists have used a new chemical technique to
measure the
change in terrestrial
temperature associated with this shift
in global atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
The
global mean
temperature rise of less than 1 degree C
in the past century does not seem like much, but it is associated with a winter
temperature rise of 3 to 4 degrees C over most of the Arctic
in the past 20 years, unprecedented loss of ice from all the tropical glaciers, a decrease of 15 to 20 %
in late summer sea ice extent, rising sealevel, and a host of other
measured signs of anomalous and rapid climate
change.
In effect, the HadCrut4 and NOAA GlobalTemp global series simplistically assume temperature change in the Arctic and other missing areas matches on average that measured in the rest of the glob
In effect, the HadCrut4 and NOAA GlobalTemp
global series simplistically assume
temperature change in the Arctic and other missing areas matches on average that measured in the rest of the glob
in the Arctic and other missing areas matches on average that
measured in the rest of the glob
in the rest of the globe.
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossibl
In addition, since the
global surface
temperature records are a
measure that responds to albedo
changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences
in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossibl
in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.
To make any progrtess
in this debate we first of all need to agree on what we use for
measuring what are after all very small
changes in «
global»
temperatures.
(PS we are considering the climate sensitivity to be
in terms of
changes in global - time average surface
temperature per unit
global - time average radiative forcing, though one could also define other sensitivities for other
measures of climate).
I think it's a mistake to refer to
changes in global average surface air
temperatures as if they were definitive
measures of the
change to the climate system.
I understand it is because
in the last few years the
temperature of the Earth has actually cooled so, rather than lose the momentum they had gained to make political inroads to underwrite
global measures to control societies» behaviors when it comes to things like use of fossil fuels, proponents decided to cut their losses and
change the term so they wouldn't be obviously wrong to the masses as it snowed on various
global warming rallies.
Scientists at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) gather data from a
global network of some 800 climate - monitoring stations to
measure changes in the earth's average
temperature.
So the ability to detect
changes in the
global temperature is the yard stick to
measure the
global effects of CO2 emissions.
We have
measured the real source of ALL supposed AGW symptoms: it is a now 0.0 degree
change over 30 years
in global temperatures.
Jim Cripwell:» Even if you succeed
in measuring the radiation «budget», there is still the problem of how you go from a
change in radiative forcing to a
change in global temperature.»
I have looked at the physics that claims that this can be done, and I am as certain as I can be that there is no proper physics that allows us to even estimate, let alone
measure, how much
global temperature changes as a result of a
change in radiative forcing.
Dana, I think you are pushing
in the right direction with this; heat content is a much more direct
measure of the underlying
changes to the climate system than average air
temperatures and climate science communicators should make heat content their first response to the suggestion that
global warming is something that waxes and (allegedly, recently) wanes.
There is some correlation between
changes in temperature due to
global warming
in different parts of the ocean, so there might be some reduction below 0.1 C, but how much and how has it been
measured?
• The
measured «average
global temperature» isn't necessarily representative of the overall thermal energy
in the system, because
temperatures can
change in regions not part of the measurement system.
Measuring the
temperature difference from one year to another
in a single location has nothing to do with climate
change on a
global basis.
To conduct the research, a team of scientists led by John Fasullo of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research
in Boulder, Colorado, combined data from three sources: NASA's GRACE satellites, which make detailed measurements of Earth's gravitational field, enabling scientists to monitor
changes in the mass of continents; the Argo
global array of 3,000 free - drifting floats, which
measure the
temperature and salinity of the upper layers of the oceans; and satellite - based altimeters that are continuously calibrated against a network of tide gauges.
This is no exaggeration: NASA is the leading agency
in studying the effects of
global warming on the planet,
in measuring the
changes in our atmosphere, our oceans, the weather, and yes, the climate as
temperatures increase.
Lots of factors make
measuring global temperature a difficult task, such as sparse data
in remote places, random measurement errors and
changes in instrumentation over time.
Our study suggests that these patterns may also exist
in deseasonalized monthly means of the
measured temperature record
in the post industrial era, a period that is normally associated with
global warming and climate
change.
The benefits of fighting climate
change are estimated to be
measured in a fraction of a Degree C
change in global temperature a hundred or more years
in the future.
To point out just a couple of things: — oceans warming slower (or cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase
change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but
in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that
in last years land
temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse
global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but,
in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands» warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part
in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters warming slower than lands, and because lands»
temperatures are often
measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a
global uncertainity
in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters»
temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities
temperature trends actually show an increase
in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the
global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live
in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI
in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but,
in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least
in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough
in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small
global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of
measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
The fact is that the likely effect of a doubling of CO2, even from the tiny.028 % of the atmosphere to the still tiny.056 % of the atmosphere will be a
change of 3oC (btw, what %
change in absolute
global temperature is that
in measured in Kelvin?
«
In summary, given the lack of observational robustness of minimum temperatures, the fact that the shallow nocturnal boundary layer does not reflect the heat content of the deeper atmosphere, and problems global models have in replicating nocturnal boundary layers, it is suggested that measures of large - scale climate change should only use maximum temperature trends.&raqu
In summary, given the lack of observational robustness of minimum
temperatures, the fact that the shallow nocturnal boundary layer does not reflect the heat content of the deeper atmosphere, and problems
global models have
in replicating nocturnal boundary layers, it is suggested that measures of large - scale climate change should only use maximum temperature trends.&raqu
in replicating nocturnal boundary layers, it is suggested that
measures of large - scale climate
change should only use maximum
temperature trends.»
Importantly, whether one thinks
global warming poses little or no threat or that the planet is on a path toward catastrophe, the cumulative climate effect of these policies, if implemented, would be a
change in the earth's
temperature almost too small to
measure.
This time period is too short to signify a
change in the warming trend, as climate trends are
measured over periods of decades, not years.12, 29,30,31,32 Such decade - long slowdowns or even reversals
in trend have occurred before
in the
global instrumental record (for example, 1900 - 1910 and 1940 - 1950; see Figure 2.2), including three decade - long periods since 1970, each followed by a sharp
temperature rise.33 Nonetheless, satellite and ocean observations indicate that the Earth - atmosphere climate system has continued to gain heat energy.34
GISS
measures the
change in global surface
temperatures relative to average
temperatures from 1951 to 1980.
Project Earthshine (Earthshine is the ghostly glow of the dark side of the Moon) has been
measuring changes of the terrestrial albedo
in relation to cloud coverage data; according to cloud coverage data available since 1983, the albedo of the Earth has decreased from 1984 to 1998, then increased up to 2004
in sync with the Mean
Global Temperature.
Unlike other scientists
in the
global warming field who have had to continually backtrack, sidestep and spin erroneous findings when their models proved embarrassingly wrong, Abdussamatov's studies over the last decade have stayed on course,
in keeping with the actual
temperature readings that ultimately provide a true
measure of climate
change.
There is consistence [70] between the estimates of the ISCCP, the
global albedo, the insolation
measured at the surface and the length of the daily insolation observed
in many places: all of them are likely to explain the
temperature changes.
If your null hypothesis is that some
measure of
global average
temperature hasn't
changed since 1979, then I'm reasonably certain that having the same
temperature in 2008 as 1979 means you can not reject that hypothesis.
But the morality of emitting CO2, which possibly raises
global temperatures and might
change the climate (
in an unpredictable and unspecified way) isn't such an easy thing to
measure.
The study
measured the «efficacy» (that is, how much each forcing affects heat accumulation
in the climate for a given strength) of each forcing by comparing the
global change in temperature when only that forcing was acting to
change temperature with the
change in global temperature when only CO2 is acting on the climate.
The
measure asked Exxon potential risks of «technology
changes and from climate
change policies such as the 2015 accord aiming to keep average
global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius,» Reuters reported
in May.
You know, I would have a lot less trouble believing climate scientists could actually
measure changes in global average sea level to within a milimeter, if I didn't know how badly they overstate their confidence
in «
global average
temperature»
in all its many manifestations, with all its many assumptions, models and WAGs.
The
measured change in outgoing radiation per unit
change in global mean sea - surface
temperature is seven times greater than the UN's models predict.
Its a useful paper, but disappointing
in that it does not point out the need for the scientific community to focus on getting a precise
measure of the glacial - interglacial
global temperature change.
The site was chosen,
in part, because the permafrost acts as a natural freezer to preserve the seeds, but record
global temperatures have seen meltwater make its way inside, prompting new
measures to fortify the facility
in the face of climate
change.
But record
global temperatures have seen meltwater make its way inside, prompting new
measures to fortify the facility
in the face of climate
change.
The study, published today
in Nature Climate
Change, showed that reaching the 3 energy - related objectives proposed by the United Nations in their Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) initiative, launched in 2011, would reduce emissions of greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change and, in combination with other measures, could help keep global temperature rise from exceeding the internationally agreed target level of
Change, showed that reaching the 3 energy - related objectives proposed by the United Nations
in their Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) initiative, launched
in 2011, would reduce emissions of greenhouse gases that contribute to climate
change and, in combination with other measures, could help keep global temperature rise from exceeding the internationally agreed target level of
change and,
in combination with other
measures, could help keep
global temperature rise from exceeding the internationally agreed target level of 2 °C.