Over the past five years, for example, this number — known as the VLMAP, for Value Line's
Median Appreciation Potential — has been as low as 45 % and as high as 185 %.
All things considered, the recent stock price might present an opportunity for patient investors, given the solid capital
appreciation potential out to 2017 - 2019, versus the Value Line
median.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest
potential for stock
appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large
potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the
median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial
potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
At the stock's recent quotation, long - term capital
appreciation potential looks compelling, when stacked against the Value Line
median.