Glacials happen when the 100,000 year
Milankovitch orbital cycle is such that summer irradiance in high northern latitudes is at its lowest point — allowing the persistence of ice fields.
It's the same series of an initial forcing (change in insolation due to
Milankovitch orbital cycles) being amplified by reinforcing feedbacks (change in albedo, change in temperature and partial pressure regulating both CO2 and H2O), but in reverse from an exit from a glacial period.
Not exact matches
These
Milankovitch cycles are tied to Earth's wobbly
orbital axis, its oscillating axial tilt, and its
orbital eccentricity.
Predicted changes in
orbital forcing suggest that the next glacial period would begin at least 50,000 years from now, even in absence of human - made global warming (see
Milankovitch cycles).
While
Milankovitch forcing predicts that cyclic changes in the Earth's
orbital parameters can be expressed in the glaciation record, additional explanations are necessary to explain which
cycles are observed to be most important in the timing of glacial — interglacial periods.
The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition (the concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane); changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun known as
Milankovitch cycles (and possibly the Sun's orbit around the galaxy); the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on the Earth's surface, which could affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the
orbital dynamics of the Earth - Moon system; and the impact of relatively large meteorites, and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes.
The paper you linked almost dismisses
orbital forcing (
Milankovitch cycles).
This discussion is not directly addressing that, but I take away the idea that CO2 increases rapidly enough, by a variety of processes, to greatly amplify what would otherwise occur just due to
orbital (
Milankovitch)
cycles.
At least 4 transient global warming events related to massive carbon input occurred through the late Paleocene — early Eocene, apparently paced by
orbital cycles within the
Milankovitch band (Lourenset al., 2005; Galeotti et al., 2010).
Still I find sentences like «It was discovered in the 1970's that the pacing of the
cycles seen in benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes was highly correlated to the
Milankovitch cycles of
orbital variability (Hays, Imbrie and Shackleton, 1976).»
# 29 — the phenomenon of greenhouse gases retaining heat at the surface of the earth operates on decadal scales, and the
orbital variations (
Milankovitch cycles) which cause the waxing and waning of the ice ages operate on millennial scales, and both are fundamental physical processes, and are not elucidated by computer models.
These are well described
cycles, which have become known as
Milankovitch cycles, after the name of the Russian scientist who for the first time in the 1920s was able to correlate these
orbital and rotational variations (which other scientists had known about for many years) with the dates of various ice ages which had been more recently determined.
The National Research Council of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has embraced the
Milankovitch Cycle model...
orbital variations remain the most thoroughly examined mechanism of climatic change on time scales of tens of thousands of years and are by far the clearest c...
There are
Milankovitch cycles of around 21,000, 40,000, 100,000, and 400,000 years — in the 100,000 year
cycle involving
orbital eccentricities the change in insolation is much smaller than with the 21,000 and 40,000 year
cycles.
Changes in insolation due to the sun's
orbital cycles, or
Milankovitch cycles, correspond with the recent 100,000 - year
cycles of past major ice ages.
The ice ages were contolled by
orbital wobbles -
Milankovitch cycles.
Then lets not forget
orbital cooling, which seems to operate on 41k or 100k scales (
Milankovitch cycles).
For instance the ice ages are caused by
orbital cycles called the
Milankovitch cycles, which cause a slight warming which is amplified by greenhouse gases in the NH.
It is increasingly evident that we are on the cusp of both the next major ice age (as in 1 mile thick ice in Chicago and NYC) caused by the
orbital eccentricity and the tilt of the Earth's axis (See
Milankovitch cycles below) and the next mini ice age (see Maunder, and Dalton, or Rohrer minimum related to the location and number of sunspots (below)-RRB-.
But, as would be expected from their origins in the earth's
orbital cycles, the
Milankovitch rhythms were present long before that, and can be seen as
cycles of deep - sea anoxia: T. D. Herbert and A. G. Fischer, «
Milankovitch climatic origin of mid-Cretaceous black shale rhythms in central Italy.»
The cause was likely the solar intensity maximum on the northern hemisphere due to the Earth's
orbital orientation (
Milankovitch Cycles).
In the case of the 100 kyr ice age
cycles, that forcing is high northern latitude summer insolation driven by predictable changes in Earth's
orbital and rotational parameters — aka,
Milankovitch theory — which has the intial effect of melting glaciers, thereby reducing albedo at those latitudes.
An ~ 100kyr periodicity in fast - spreading seafloor bathymetry, and relatively low present - day eruption rates, at a time of high sea - level and decreasing
orbital eccentricity suggest a longer term sensitivity to sea - level and
orbital variations associated with
Milankovitch cycles.
The
orbital or
Milankovitch cycles are the best studied, and between them and the Lunar nodal regression
cycle of 18.6 years lies the
orbital gap, where no astronomical
cycle is known to affect climate.
Precession, of course, is but one of three
orbital eccentricities collectively known as
Milankovitch cycles.
All this drove home that it scarcely mattered which came first, for the chief effect of the
Milankovitch -
cycle orbital changes was to initiate a powerful feedback loop.
To this point, the standard response to this myth has been that initial temperature increases have historically been caused by the Earth's
orbital (
Milankovitch)
cycles, which in turn warm the oceans, causing them to release CO2, which in turn amplify the global warming.
In short, the initial warming was indeed triggered by the
Milankovitch cycles, and that small amount of
orbital cycle - caused warming eventually triggered the CO2 release, which caused most of the glacial - interglacial warming.
The predominance of landmasses in the northern hemisphere causes glaciations to predominate over interglacials by about 9 to 1 with a full
cycle every 100, 000 years helped along by the
orbital changes of the
Milankovitch cycles that affect the pattern of insolation on those shifting cloud masses.
«
Milankovitch cycles» — natural
orbital variations which primarily determine the timing of Ice Ages.
When CO2 falls below critical thresholds, its influence as a greenhouse gas is overshadowed by other processes, such as
orbital shape (
Milankovitch cycles).
Though Milan
Milankovitch would not perform his definitive calculations of the Earth's
orbital cycles for three decades yet, the Serb was not the first to consider the effects of cyclic
orbital changes.