Sentences with phrase «modelling estimates suggest»

Losses could soar to $ 24tn and wreck the global economy in worst case scenario, first economic modelling estimate suggests

Not exact matches

Using a Hidden Markov model (see this post for a profile) to estimate the probability that a new downturn has started suggests that it's premature to declare the bull regime dead and buried.

The ideal tax structure, it was suggested, would be a volumetric tax on all alcoholic beverages, applied at the same rate of tax per litre of alcohol across all beverages.6 However, the review did not provide any detailed estimates or modelling of the optimal tax rate on alcohol nor how this would affect government revenue, overall consumption or changes in the social costs from harmful consumption.

Considering that existing climate models typically do not consider northeast Greenland with future sea - level projections, the findings suggest that sea - level rise estimates may err on the high side, close to 3 feet or higher, said Khan.

«These declining catch rates align with our survival rate estimates of green turtles exposed to the Nicaragua turtle fishery and population modelling, which suggested the fishery was not sustainable at high take levels reported in the 1990s,» said Dr. Cathi Campbell.

Charcoal and ancient pollen records suggest the niche space needed by whitebark pine is much larger than models estimate.

On the contrary, preliminary modelling by Mark Flanner of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, suggests that waste heat would cause large industrialised regions to warm by between 0.4 °C and 0.9 °C by 2100, in agreement with Chaisson's estimates (Geophysical Research Letters, vol 36, p L02801).

New climate models — made by using estimated radiation levels from that time, along with data from the Magellan spacecraft about Venus's current surface — suggest that Venus would have been only 11 °C (52 °F).

A recent report from the parliamentary budget officer estimates that a universal, public pharmacare system would save Canadians more than $ 4 billion per year while this study suggests that applying Quebec's private - public model in all provinces would cost Canadians over $ 5 - billion more per year than they currently pay.

The model estimates that cases of both forms of drug - resistant disease will increase, suggesting that almost a third of tuberculosis cases in Russia (32.5 %) would be multidrug - resistant by 2040, as well as 12.4 % of tuberculosis cases in India, 8.9 % in the Philippines, and 5.7 % in South Africa.

They continue to refine the business model, but early estimates suggest that local entrepreneurs could make a profit by selling, installing, and servicing these systems.

A new estimate, based on mathematical modeling and a major bug - counting effort in New Guinea, puts the number of arthropod species in the tropics — which account for most of the animal species in the world — at about 3.7 million, way below the 30 million once suggested.

Results from climate models driven by estimated radiative forcings for the 20th century (Chapter 9) suggest that there was little change prior to about 1915, and that a substantial fraction of the early 20th - century change was contributed by naturally occurring influences including solar radiation changes, volcanism and natural variability.

Integration of niche models and phylogenetic estimates suggests that climatic cooling may have promoted range contact and gene flow between currently highly disjunct species.

A group of researchers publishing in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine have used a modelling study to estimate the risk of Zika infection to those traveling to the Olympics in Brazil and suggest the number of infected travelers returning to all countries to be between 3 and 37.

Comparison of model results with the «known population» of radio - collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates.

New data compiled from a range of sources — from Navy submarines to satellites — suggests that thinning is happening much faster than models have estimated, according to a study aiming to link those disparate data sources for the first time.

First, previous estimates of gene flow between rabbit subspecies using an Isolation - with - Migration model [36], [37] and a similar sampling scheme to the one used here suggest moderate to high levels of gene exchange (2Nm ≈ 1.2 for the autosomes averaged in both directions)[26].

This new study suggests that the risk of developing type 2 diabetes is somewhat higher than previously estimated — however the study was not specifically designed to address this issue, and it relies on modelling to take into account confounding factors underlying the reasons for prescribing statins.

Although these models are controversial, the weight of the evidence suggests that they produce valid estimates of teachers» contributions to student learning.

Our findings suggest that the value - added model estimates provide meaningful information on teacher and school performance.

And in all 8 models the point estimates suggest that a standard deviation improvement in classroom observation or student survey results is associated with less than a.1 standard deviation increase in test score gains.

Under the simple model that only 50 % of the population was trappable in a given year, estimates from all sources suggested that the feral population in the interior ranged from 128 to 176 cats across years.

But the red line is simply an estimate of the forced trends, so the correct reading of the graph would be that the models do not support an argument suggesting that all of the 1910 - 1940 excursion is forced (contingent on the forcing datasets that were used), which is what was stated in AR5.

What this model shows is that if orbital variations in insolation impact ice sheets directly in any significant way (which evidence suggests they do Roe (2006)-RRB-, then the regression between CO2 and temperature over the glacial - interglacial cycles (which was used in Snyder (2016)-RRB- is a very biased (over) estimate of ESS.

Combined climate / ice sheet model estimates in which the Greenland surface temperature was as high during the Eemian as indicated by the NEEM ice core record suggest that loss of less than about 1 m sea level equivalent is very unlikely (e.g. Robinson et al. (2011).

I suggested doing such a study a number of years ago, but my colleague Kevin Trenberth questioned the ability of climate models to deal well enough with moisture, so that the estimates of buoyant energy would be seriously questioned.

If all of the currently available carbon resources — estimated to be around 10,000 gigatons — were burned, the Antarctic Ice Sheet would melt entirely and trigger a global sea - level rise of more than 50 meters, a new long - term modeling study suggests.

«Trend estimates from the SOS [Start of Spring] methods as well as measured and modeled plant phenologystrongly suggest either no or very geographically limited trends towards earlier spring arrival, although we caution that, for an event such as SOS with high interannual variability, a 25 - year SOS record is short for detecting robust trends.»

Comparison with observed estimates of the seasonal cycle suggested that most models in the MMD underestimate the strength of this feedback.

Suggesting the models are under - estimating sensitivity is nothing short of laughable, however they massage the data to arrive at that conclusion.

The GRACE observations over Antarctica suggest a near - zero change due to combined ice and solid earth mass redistribution; the magnitude of our GIA correction is substantially smaller than previous models have suggested and hence we produce a systematically lower estimate of ice mass change from GRACE data: we estimate that Antarctica has lost 69 ± 18 Gigatonnes per year (Gt / yr) into the oceans over 2002 - 2010 — equivalent to +0.19 mm / yr globally - averaged sea level change, or about 6 % of the sea - level change during that period.

They are left with 0.7 mm / yr of their observed 1.8 mm / yr budget unexplained (clearly this means they don't say anything like «half ice half warming»), which they suggest could be partially closed by terrestrial storage changes though that would be beyond the range of their forward modelling estimates.

It appears to me that the new «scientific evidence» is suggesting that water vapor feedback is not as strong as had been estimated by the models previously and that net cloud feedback may be neutral to slightly negative, rather than strongly positive, as predicted previously by the models.

Our assessment suggests that upper - bound estimates from low - resolution models and physical arguments9 (up to a metre by 2100 and around one and a half by 2200) are implausible under current understanding of physical mechanisms and potential triggers.

manacker December 19, 2012 at 8:00 pm said:» It appears to me that the new «scientific evidence» is suggesting that water vapor feedback is not as strong as had been estimated by the models previously and that net cloud feedback may be neutral to slightly negative, rather than strongly positive, as predicted previously by the models»

In this suggested revision, the estimated or modeled amplitude of the effects, including the response of the Earth environment, can be quite different, necessarily smaller, and should thus be re-assessed.

These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea - ice changes are simulated.

This carbon budget is still considerably higher than the IPCC's estimate, suggesting that approaches informed by observations are important to correct for too - low estimates in the models.

The»em barrassingly crude» model suggests that one can change the estimate of CO2 induced warming from an estimate of 2.2 degrees into an estimate of 1.4 degrees.

As I interpret the evidence, the observational data tend to confirm the modeling for these individual feedbacks at least semiquantitatively, and this suggests to me that the climate sensitivity estimates are probably not grossly in error, even if precise quantitation still eludes us.

This also suggests that there is a systematic upward bias in the impacts estimates based on these models just from this factor alone.

Specifically, the global temperature estimates used by the IPCC did suggest that there had been a 10 - 15 year «pause» in global warming, and the climate models used by the IPCC had not predicted that!

Unfortunately any mismatch doesn't tell you if it is the model that is out or the integration estimates, but they seem to be far enough apart to suggest a need for more investigation of both.

Hamilton, 4.2 (± 1.0), Statistical (Same as July) A Gompertz (asymmetric S curve) model estimated by iterative least squares, looking one year ahead, suggests a mean September 2015 ice extent of 4.2 million km2.

The issue is the time of the year, latitude and type.The Krakatoa problem is well known eg Stenchikov 2006 ie that the models over estimate the global forcing.Hansen suggested that the observations were incorrect, however the Giss model gets the AO sign incorrect and arctic central temps incorrect in scale and time so.This is due to the incorrect heteregenous chemistry at high latitudes eg chapter3 WMO 2003, Ozone assessment 2011.

From that insight and their calculations they conclude the low - climate sensitivity model studies (suggesting climate sensitivity best estimate around 2 degrees Celsius) should be revised upwards to 2.6 degrees following differences in efficacies from «instantaneous radiative forcing» — and further revised upwards to 3 degrees [the value most studies agree on] when climate forcing efficacy is calculated from ERF — «effective radiative forcing».

Detection / attribution assessments, using General Circulation Models (GCMs) or Energy Balance Models (EBMs) with geographical distributions of surface temperature trends, suggest that the solar influence on climate is greater than would be anticipated from radiative forcing estimates.

My long comment was not meant to suggest that models were irrelevant in quantifying attributions and estimating forcings, but rather that there is independent evidence pointing in the same direction.

Tegen et al. (2004) provided an updated, alternative estimate by comparing observations of visibility, as a proxy for dust events, from over 2,000 surface stations with model results, and suggested that only 5 to 7 % of mineral dust comes from anthropogenic agricultural sources.