Sentences with phrase «models of the climate system»

The findings are based on analyses of ancient plant leaf wax found in the sediments of the Gulf of Guinea in combination with computer models of the climate system.

Ultimately, we'd like to be able to reproduce the global signatures of these abrupt climate events with numerical models of the climate system, and investigate the physics that drive such events.»

So, what about deterministic modeling of the climate system?

In their research, team members used advanced computer models of the climate system to estimate changes in the tropopause height that likely result from anthropogenic effects.

The same observations and numerical tools that enable new scientific discoveries have the potential to transform modeling of the climate system.

This is one of the more challenging aspects of modeling of the climate system because precipitation involves not only large - scale processes that are well - resolved by models but also small - scale process, such as convection, that must be parameterized in the current generation of global and regional climate models.

I now work at the Met Office in Exeter where I am assessing how the accuracy of weather forecasts for the next season is affected by how well the stratosphere is represented in the computer model of the climate system we use to make forecasts.

Projections of climate change are uncertain, firstly because they are primarily dependent on scenarios of future anthropogenic and natural forcings that are uncertain, secondly because of incomplete understanding and imprecise models of the climate system and finally because of the existence of internal climate variability.

Computer models of the climate system have a difficult time reproducing this sudden melt.

I think one of the important issues is to be doing modelling of the climate system consequences of fully 1.5 C pathways and maybe even more than that.

On the other side, Professor Andr e Berger and colleagues developed a mathematical model of the climate system, rated today as a «model of intermediate complexity» [6, 7] to solve the dynamics of the atmosphere and ice sheets on a spatial grid of 19 × 5 elements, with a reasonably extensive treatment of the shortwave and longwave radiative transfers in the atmosphere.

SCIENTISTS have put a huge amount of effort into generating computer models of our climate system.

The convergence that I observe in climate science is far more on what statist solutions must be imposed via bigger government, and less personal liberty rather than on an accurate model of the climate system.

I think much can be learned from messing around with these sorts of «toys», although as pointed out by many of the earlier comments, models of our climate system have little or no correlation to what goes on in the real world.

Terrestrial flux and boundary - layer measurements represent a new, expanding and potentially hugely important resource for improving our understanding of these processes and their representation in models of the climate system.

For their study, Hansen and his colleagues combined ancient paleo - climate data with new satellite readings and an improved model of the climate system to demonstrate that ice sheets can melt at a «non-linear» rate: rather than an incremental melting as Earth's poles inexorably warm, ice sheets might melt at exponential rates, shedding dangerous amounts of mass in a matter of decades, not millennia.

neither do those uncertainties allow scientific closure — as long as models of the climate system's behavior decay into chaos on shorter time scales than human history, climate modeling will remain prey to misrepresentation by those well enough paid, or ideologically bloody minded enough to do so: the trouble with the climate wars is that neither political side, activist or obscurantist, really gives a damn about the science, and those presuming to speak for it invite damnation by both.

In turn, that depends on a deterministic model of the climate system in which it is possible to quantify the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) with...

I don't think it's proper to hang predictive projections of serious climate risk on the noose of failing to have a complete top - to - bottom model of the climate system at work.

What we are really after is how to evaluate our understanding of what's driving climate change as encapsulated in models of the climate system.

Models of the climate system are a useful tool for understanding these issues on a deeper level.

Not exact matches

«We have to think of religious identity as the central mental model and framework and belief system by which many Americans, if not a majority of Americans, are going to come to understand climate change,» he said.

Murali Haran, a professor in the department of statistics at Penn State University; Won Chang, an assistant professor in the department of mathematical sciences at the University of Cincinnati; Klaus Keller, a professor in the department of geosciences and director of sustainable climate risk management at Penn State University; Rob Nicholas, a research associate at Earth and Environmental Systems Institute at Penn State University; and David Pollard, a senior scientist at Earth and Environmental Systems Institute at Penn State University detail how parameters and initial values drive an ice sheet model, whose output describes the behavior of the ice sheet through time.

A better understanding of the heating distributions required to robustly simulate strong MJOs in climate models will improve insights into the dynamics of the climate system and projections of future climate.

«Models do a good job at simulating some elements of the climate system, but they disagree on key aspects of the land - atmosphere CO2 exchange, and in particular the amount of carbon being sequestered,» Rawlins said in a statement.

And the evidence of change has mounted as climate records have grown longer, as our understanding of the climate system has improved and as climate models have become ever more reliable.

However, most climate system models have not done a good job of showing the relationship between permafrost and soil carbon dynamics.

While large - scale climate research models offer a systems view of what the transport sector, for example, could contribute to climate protection in comparison to the energy sector, the study presented in Science, however, examines transport - related issues within the sector by using more recent and more specific data on how people commute and travel.

A. David McGuire, U.S. Geological Survey senior scientist and climate system modeling expert with the University of Alaska Fairbanks Institute of Arctic Biology, is lead author of the paper.

Three approaches were used to evaluate the outstanding «carbon budget» (the total amount of CO2 emissions compatible with a given global average warming) for 1.5 °C: re-assessing the evidence provided by complex Earth System Models, new experiments with an intermediate - complexity model, and evaluating the implications of current ranges of uncertainty in climate system properties using a simple System Models, new experiments with an intermediate - complexity model, and evaluating the implications of current ranges of uncertainty in climate system properties using a simple system properties using a simple model.

«This paper is another example of how surprisingly complex the climate system is, how interrelated or interconnected all the parts are, and how difficult it is to model correctly.»

Using math and computer skills, he developed systems models showing 150 years of climate variability.

Over the next decade a few scientists devised simple mathematical models of the climate, and turned up feedbacks that could make the system surprisingly variable.

Combined, these models give public health and governmental officials vital climate information needed to create early warning systems — systems that can alert the public to the risk for disease and allow public health officials to mobilize resources and enact mosquito control programs and surveillance ahead of peak season.

The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system.

«One reason that we haven't appreciated the role of aerosols in the climate system is that many — most — models don't include aerosol - cloud interactions,» including only a handful of those used in IPCC's fifth assessment report, released in 2014.

A few of the main points of the third assessment report issued in 2001 include: An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system; emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate; confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased; and there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

The models also include the greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants that result from these processes, and they incorporate all of that information within a global climate model that simulates the physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, as well as in freshwater and ocean systems.

«A cloud system - resolved model can reduce one of the greatest uncertainties in climate models, by improving the way we treat clouds,» Wehner said.

«Our model can help predict if forests are at risk of desertification or other climate change - related processes and identify what can be done to conserve these systems,» he said.

«When we included projected Antarctic wind shifts in a detailed global ocean model, we found water up to 4 °C warmer than current temperatures rose up to meet the base of the Antarctic ice shelves,» said lead author Dr Paul Spence from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS).

Using 19 climate models, a team of researchers led by Professor Minghua Zhang of the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University, discovered persistent dry and warm biases of simulated climate over the region of the Southern Great Plain in the central U.S. that was caused by poor modeling of atmospheric convective systems — the vertical transport of heat and moisture in the atmosphere.

«As a result, some atmospheric circulations systems can not be resolved by these models, and this clearly impacts the accuracy of climate change predictions as shown in our study.»

Likewise, while models can not represent the climate system perfectly (thus the uncertainly in how much the Earth will warm for a given amount of emissions), climate simulations are checked and re-checked against real - world observations and are an established tool in understanding the atmosphere.

To test his idea, Salzmann used a computer model of the Earth system to find out how the climate would react to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon - dioxide concentration.

Prior climate models have lacked the fundamental computing power necessary to find the human signal above the noise of a variable climate system, McKinley says.

The new findings of successful multi-year drought / fire predictions are based on a series of computer modeling experiments, using the state - of - the - art earth system model, the most detailed data on current ocean temperature and salinity conditions, and the climate responses to natural and human - linked radiative forcing.

«This study is very important because [dust devils] are a big source of dust in the atmosphere on Mars,» but the methods of counting them are «primitive,» says Jeffery Hollingsworth, a research scientist who models the martin climate at the NASA Ames Research Center Planetary Systems Branch in Moffett Field, California.

The panel reported that the world is warming throughout the lower atmosphere, as climate models had predicted, and acknowledged «clear evidence of human influences on the climate system.»

«As healthcare systems and professionals worldwide become more aware of and concerned for the public health implications of climate change and excessive resource use, efficient care delivery models must be better understood and promoted,» says Dr. Thiel.