Sentences with phrase «multidecadal variability]»

Further more detailed spectral analysis of the summer's temperatures data shows no distinct multidecadal periodicities, while the winter's data does.

al. do, or do you believe they are part of the multidecadal PDO and are likely to last a long time, as Kosaka and Xie do.

The observational and modeling results of the teleconnections linked to AMOC changes (including the dynamical response of vertical wind shear over the main development region of Atlantic hurricanes) suggest an important role of the AMOC in the AMV and the multidecadal variability of the Atlantic major hurricane frequency.

There is also evidence that the drift is associated with the phase of the Arctic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

Over the multidecadal timescales, the non-chaotic solar signal predominated during the early twentieth century, with CO2 playing a subordinate role.

In its end of February report, the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) noted that Barents Sea ice was below average for this time of year (see Fig. 1 above, and Fig. 5 below) but suggested this was primarily due to natural variation driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO):

Both the IPO and PDO influence multidecadal drought risk across the Pacific [Kiem and Franks, 2004; McCabe et al., 2004].

- ARAMATE (The reconstruction of ecosystem and climate variability in the north Atlantic region using annually resolved archives of marine and terrestrial ecosystems)- CLIM - ARCH-DATE (Integration of high resolution climate archives with archaeological and documentary evidence for the precise dating of maritime cultural and climatic events)- CLIVASH2k (Climate variability in Antarctica and Southern Hemisphere in the past 2000 years)- CoralHydro2k (Tropical ocean hydroclimate and temperature from coral archives)- Global T CFR (Global gridded temperature reconstruction method comparisons)- GMST reconstructions - Iso2k (A global synthesis of Common Era hydroclimate using water isotopes)- MULTICHRON (Constraining modeled multidecadal climate variability in the Atlantic using proxies derived from marine bivalve shells and coralline algae)- PALEOLINK (The missing link in the Past — Downscaling paleoclimatic Earth System Models)- PSR2k (Proxy Surrogate Reconstruction 2k)

In a recent technical comment, Zhang et al. show that ocean dynamics play a central role in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the previous claims that «the AMO is a thermodynamic response of the ocean mixed layer to stochastic atmospheric forcing, and ocean circulation changes have no role in causing the AMO» are not justified.

Previous studies have attributed the warming and cooling patterns of North Atlantic ocean temperatures in the 20th century — and associated hurricane activity — to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.

«Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «Deducing Multidecadal Anthropogenic Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «Early onset of industrial - era warming across the oceans and continents»

Of the ones you mention, CO2 is currently the biggest on multidecadal to centennial timescales.

The irregularity of the temperature changes within those main background trends can not have been anything to do with humanity and can adequately be catered for by varying oceanic effects on multidecadal time scales.

Multidecadal nad multicentennial natural variability is not rejected yet, not even close.

It is hard to argue with the evidence — the climate system as a whole is not chaotic, but rather harbors chaotic elements that average out over multidecadal timescales, revealing an underlying temperature trend.

Previous studies have found it to be well correlated with the low - frequency variations in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV).

Additionally, changes in anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing have been proposed as the dominant cause of the AMV and the historical multidecadal variations in Atlantic tropical storm frequency, based on some model simulations including aerosol indirect effects.

They found that between 5 % and 30 % of the Arctic sea ice decline from 1979 to 2010 could be attributed to the natural cycles of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), and even less can be attributed to natural cycles since 1953, since these natural cycles tend to average out over longer timeframes (as Vinnikov also found).

I do not think that the historical data tells much about that except that their influence can not be much stronger than what is seen on multidecadal scale.

The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5.

My limit «their influence can not be much stronger than what is seen on multidecadal scale» is a intuitive guess for the answer.

There are changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation — and cloud — at multidecadal scales.

The only way to ensure support that can span a career is to have some major issue — like climate disaster or the existence of the Higgs boson — that has enough «crowd appeal» to have a chance for multidecadal big science funding, at which point it grows coattails that reach far and wide.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a naturally occurring pattern of sea surface temperature change that is seen in the North Atlantic Ocean on decadal timescales and affects weather and climate.

What we can say is that the three curves in the figure to the upper left give one plausible account of multidecadal climate, MUL, since 1850.

Nevertheless, the simplistic notion that climate variations consist of an analytic trend plus multidecadal periodic cycles hidden by higher - frequency «weather noise» remains endemic among those who feature themselves as «climate scientists.»

1) Unless I am misunderstanding you are not using a physical model of multidecadal cycles.

After all his filtering Vaughn Pratt still could not get rid of them and says that ``... multidecadal climate has only two significant components: the sawtooth, whatever its origins, and warming...» He does not understand the sawtooth and is wrong about warming.

«On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures»

My reason for asking is that my conclusion, namely the parameters resulting from fitting the model to multidecadal climate, seems not to depend significantly on whether one cuts off at 2010, 2000, 1990, 1970, or even 1950.

However if one chooses to interpret the last 50 years of MRES as somehow part of multidecadal climate, namely as extra upticks around 1970 and 2000 from the baseline set by 1850 - 1950, as I proposed in the first sentence of the conclusion, «plus a miniscule amount from MRES after 1950,» then I would think around a mK is fair when those upticks are included as part of «modern multidecadal climate.»

Multidecadal oscillations indeed dominate such changes.

Have a competition to produce independent models of the natural and artificial components of multidecadal HadCRUT3 and evaluate them according to (a) how reasonable each is separately, and (b) how well their combination fits the data.

A prediction of «multidecadal climate to within a millikelvin» that ignores constraining factors, which result in a 2000 millikelvin difference, is a lousy prediction, Pekka — that was my point to Vaughan Pratt.

(Regarding 1860 - 2000 rather than 1850 - 2010, I have never considered the first and last decade as meaningful when talking about multidecadal climate; in fact I demonstrated this statistically on a climate blog in February 2010, some 18 months before Santer et al made a similar point in their paper on that topic.)

What they do show is that the multidecadal part of HadCRUT3, the slow - moving or low - frequency bits, follow a precisely specified mathematical formula to within a millikelvin over a century, and a few millikelvins over 1950 - now.

The conclusion of the poster is that I have analyzed HadCRUT3 as a sum of three components, decadal, solar, and multidecadal, and further analyzed the last as a sum of two components.

It follows that the two components are essentially all there is to recent multidecadal climate thus understood.

However, what the Met Office fails to mention is that we may also be facing a shift in Atlantic temperatures to a cool phase, the so - called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

I should add that anyone who can separate multidecadal climate defined as F3 (HadCRUT3) into the sum of an oscillating component and a concave - downwards trend (the opposite of what I called Observed Global Warming which is concave - upwards) will have the immediate attention of a lot of people.

If I understood Mike Rossander's calculation as cited by Mike Jonas above, it shows that your poster linking human CO2 emissions to multidecadal climate in the past record does not hold water statistically.

I've explained those components as consisting of those frequencies that are too high to have any bearing on long - term climate, thereby justifying removing them so as to make the unexplained multidecadal variance visible.

They are still trying to find why the angular rotation aligns with measures like SOI and the multidecadal global warming signal.

However the HALE band looks much cleaner than the TSI band, suggesting that nothing entered from the MUL (multidecadal) side.

Here and on WUWT I expounded upon my speculations on how the multidecadal tempo of solar variability appears to play a role through frequency entrainment.

The strictly deterministic multidecadal climate that you insist upon flies in the face of everything that is known about geophysical fluid dynamics vis a vis the discoveries by Lorenz of chaotic behavior.

If your analysis is correct then you have separated two independent effects: the AGW signal and a new mechanism whereby heat is transferred from the mantle to the crust, driving multidecadal climate.

The goal is to model the multidecadal part of HadCRUT3.

Your original article clearly states «The hypothesis then is that multidecadal climate has only two significant components: the sawtooth, whatever its origins,.....».

The multidecadal oscillations of the Earth's core relative to the crust described at this 2000 paper by Hide et al fits quite well with this theory, and gives an alternative to the more naive «seismic events» in my theory.