Here, σ is computed for each ensemble member individually and then averaged over all 40 members, but nearly identical results are obtained by appending the detrended
NAO time series from all 40 ensemble members into one long record and then computing σ (not shown).
The NAO time series from observations and each of the first 30 members of the CESM - LE over the period 1920 — 2012 are displayed in Fig. 5 (only the first 30 members are shown to save space).
Given that the model's low - frequency NAO variability is almost entirely internally - generated, and if the same is true for observations, then the chronologies of the simulated and observed
NAO time series need not match.
It is important to note that we have focused only on the low - pass filtered portion of
the NAO time series.
Low - pass filtered
NAO time series from each of the first 30 members of the CESM1 Large Ensemble (blue curves; numbers in upper left of each panel denote the ensemble member number) and from observations (gray curve in upper left panel, and repeated in each subsequent panel) during the period 1920 — 2012.
Not exact matches
It did make a change to local government but local government has changed itself and it's
time to move on... it's
time to pass the baton to the
NAO.»
James Thorburn, managing director of Serco's home affairs business, said: «The transition from the previous contracts was, as the
NAO acknowledges, challenging, but Serco at all
times concentrated on minimising the disruption to service users through extensive communication including the provision of information in 12 languages.
The National Audit Office (
NAO) is to gain full access to the accounts of the BBC for the first
time, it emerged today.
Sir John Bourn, the head of the
NAO, said: «Government departments have a challenging
time ahead in addressing the efficiency of their office accommodation.
However, the
NAO found the new contracts have failed on both counts, with consultants spending less
time with patients and few opportunities for flexible care.
He insists universal credit will be delivered «in
time and on budget,» and says the
NAO report is dealing with «historic» issues.
The
NAO value between March and August can be calculated in the actual wine harvest
time, while the quality of the cava can only be valued two years later.
A recent study of instrumental
time series revealed
NAO [North Atlantic Oscillation] as main factor for a strong relation between winter temperature, precipitation and river discharge in central Norway over the past 50 years.
«But memory is also very important,» meaning what happened the last
time there was the right conjunction of ENSO and
NAO impacts what'll happen next
time.
One of the most violent movies of all
time, this film by acclaimed director Takashi Miike follows two violent men living in a depraved world of rape and violence — the stylish yet sadistic Kakihara (Thor's Tadanobu Asano) and the emotionally unstable killing machine Ichi (
Nao Omori).
Forty per cent of authorities responding to an
NAO survey do not believe they have sufficient resources to provide effective support to schools and almost half of those authorities are planning to reduce the amount of staff
time spent on support.
The
NAO found that 53 per cent of the 44,900 full
time teachers entering the profession in 2014 were newly qualified, with the remainder either returning to teaching after a break or moving into the state - funded sector from elsewhere.
The
NAO robot has pre-programmed responses to a range of questions and commands but students can also program it to do specific things such as dance moves, and sync them in
time to music.
Analysis for the
NAO of similar primary schools with about 200 children found some had the equivalent of 12 full
time teachers, while others had only 7.
One in five local authorities responded to an
NAO survey said they accepted longer travel
times as part of their plan to provide sufficient places.
Pressed several
times on whether the
NAO was in fact the latest sign of a crisis, Mr Gibb instead referred to problems created by «the challenge of a strong economy», with high demand for graduates, and described government initiatives like bursaries aimed at attracting people to the classroom.
The government «does not currently know with certainty how the condition of the estate is changing over
time», the
NAO says.
My name is
Nao, and I am a
time being.»»
The novel moves back and forth between Ruth and
Nao, who somehow both manage to be wickedly funny, heartbreakingly pathetic and courageous all at the same
time.
Either way it's a good deal, but if you're seeing this on Sunday, May 5, don't waste any
time:
Nao Yazawa, the creator of Wedding Peach and Moon and Blood, is offering her 77 - page manga Go Go
Nao - p!
A Tale for the
Time Being entwines the stories of a Japanese teenager,
Nao, and a middle - aged Japanese - Canadian author named Ruth.
Hana, like the heroine of
Nao Go Straight, can be too empathic at
times — something contrasted with the new trauma doctors introduced towards the end.
We've proudly teamed up with the
Nao Victoria Foundation of Spain to offer this private, lantern - lit ghostly walking tour which ALSO includes a night -
time visit to these magnificent vessels... after hours, when the sun has set and the spirits have become active!
Nao Tsuda, a photographer who always interacts face - to - face with the relationship between nature and human beings through walking, will make his latest works public for the first
time.
Judah has been publishing on the link between Eurasian snow cover in autumn and the NAM /
NAO in the following winter for quite some
time.
Both the
NAO and the AMOC have a dominant influence on regional variations over Europe on
time scales of a decade [1].
Over the multi-decadal
time scales, there is more reasonable evidence for an
NAO and surface temperature response to solar changes though the magnitudes are still small.
Both the
NAO and ENSO exhibited marked changes in their surface climate expressions on multi-decadal
time scales during the 20th century (e.g., Power et al., 1999b; Jones et al., 2003).
On the question of hurricanes, the theoretical arguments that more energy and water vapor in the atmosphere should lead to stronger storms are really sound (after all, storm intensity increases going from pole toward equator), but determining precisely how human influences (so including GHGs [greenhouse gases] and aerosols, and land cover change) should be changing hurricanes in a system where there are natural external (solar and volcanoes) and internal (e.g., ENSO,
NAO [El Nino - Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation]-RRB- influences is quite problematic — our climate models are just not good enough yet to carry out the types of sensitivity tests that have been done using limited area hurricane models run for relatively short
times.
It appears we agree on the inability of the global models to simulate the natural variations on decadal and, presumably longer
time scales, of large scale circulation patterns such as ENSO, the PDO, the
NAO etc..
Large - scale climate variations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (
NAO), are occurring at the same
time as the global climate is changing.
Although the
NAO is the dominant pattern of atmospheric circulation variability, accounting for about half of the total winter SLP variance on both interannual and multi-decadal
time scales, other large - scale structures of internal circulation variability will also undoubtedly contribute to uncertainty in future climate trends.
The similarity of these observationally - based «
NAO book - end» trend maps with those derived directly from the leading EOF of the set of 40 CESM - LE SLP trend maps (Fig. 2) attests to the robustness of the results, the utility of the method of Thompson et al. (2015) to estimate uncertainty in trends from the statistics of a Gaussian
time series, and the fidelity of CESM's simulation of the
NAO.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (
NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation variability over the North Atlantic / European sector, is a leading governor of wintertime climate fluctuations in Europe, the Mediterranean, parts of the Middle East and eastern North America over a wide range of
time scales from intra-seasonal to multi-decadal (e.g., Hurrell 1995; Hurrell et al. 2003).
The full
NAO record exhibits energetic inter-annual fluctuations (not shown), and consequently there is very little autocorrelation in any of the simulated
time series, consistent with observations (Fig.
As a last metric of the degree to which the scaling argument of Thompson et al. (2015) applies to the
NAO in the CESM - LE, we compare the histogram of the 40
NAO trend (2016 — 2045) PC values with that of a Gaussian
time series whose σ is computed from the interannual statistics of the detrended
NAO during 1920 — 2012, multiplied by 1.27 (Fig. 7e).
The leading mode explains 45 % of the SLP trend variance and resembles the
NAO, reinforcing the notion that the
NAO is not only a dominant mode of variability on interannual
time scales, but also on multi-decadal
time scales (Fig. 2a).
The relative magnitudes of the climate impacts induced by the naturally - occurring
NAO and by anthropogenic factors will depend on the
time horizon (e.g., next few decades vs. end of the twenty - first century),
time - scale (interannual vs. multi-decadal), and parameter (temperature vs. precipitation) of interest (e.g., Deser et al. 2012).
Although some predictive skill for the
NAO may be obtained through knowledge of anomalous boundary conditions, it is limited to lead
times of a year or two at best (Scaife et al. 2014; Dunstone et al. 2016).
While the statistics of 30 - year (or longer)
NAO trends and associated surface climate impacts can not be reliably determined from the short observational record, we have made use of a simple relationship between the statistics of trends of any length and the statistics of the interannual variability, provided the
time series is Gaussian (Thompson et al. 2015).
The relationships between the
NAO and deep water production are discussed by R. Dickson, «Observations of DecCen climate variability in convection and water mass formation in the northern hemisphere,» in the CLIVAR Villefranche workshop summary at http://www.dkrz.de/clivar/villesum.html. More generally, see the Climate Research Committee, National Research Council, Natural Climate Variability on Decade - to - Century
Time Scales (National Academy Press 1995).
For example, La Niña winters tend towards a stronger polar vortex and the positive phase of the
NAO, but if the polar vortex breaks down (which it's done many
times during La Niña winters; Butler & Polvani 2011) it will push the climate towards a negative
NAO pattern, and the two effects tend to cancel over the season.
This pattern emerges clearly once the
NAO record is
time integrated to stress its comparison with the temperature record.
This makes it clear to what extent the variability in the inflow of «warm and salty» North Atlantic water at
times of positive values of the
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) dominates the temperature of the Atlantic water mass by importing «vast quantities of heat» into the Arctic Ocean to induce core temperatures in the intermediate layer in Nansen Basin that are much warmer than in the Canadian Basin, far downstream.
It concerns foremost the last 160 years, as the barometric pressure measurements for reconstructing the
NAO for the
time before 1850 are possibly not reliable, the authors write.