Instead of ignoring this baiting (like I probably should continue doing), I will repeat for you what is believed about how CO2 functions like a blanket and determines
the net ocean heat differences.
The slight drop in
net ocean heat from 2003 - 2005 fits what the Astrophysicists predicted some years ago.
What the ice actually does in a particular year depends upon the «forcings» (to misapply a term, perhaps) actually occurring —
net ocean heat fluxes, net radiative fluxes, winds and currents (especially, but not exclusively, as they determine ice export to the North Atlantic.)
Net Ocean heating 90 Net Ice cap, ice sheet, and glacier melt 4 - 6 Net Soils heating 2 Atmosphere heat buildup 1
Not exact matches
ocean system is associated with an amplified increase in arctic surface air temperature, downward longwave radiation, and
net heat flux.
Figure 4 - Comparison of
net TOA flux and upper -
ocean heating rates.
«The rise and fall in CERES and ERA - Interim
net radiation and upper -
ocean heating rates after 2007 (Figs 2 and 4) is entirely consistent with variability linked to ENSO (Fig. 3) and shows no evidence of a discrepancy between TOA
net radiation and energy accumulating in Earth's climate system»
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00148.1 Global satellite observations show the sea surface temperature (SST) increasing since the 1970s in all
ocean basins, while the
net air — sea
heat flux Q decreases.
a, Global annual average (July to June)
net TOA flux from CERES observations and 0 — 700 and 0 — 1,800 m
ocean heating rates from PMEL / JPL / JIMAR.
Smaller contributions to planetary energy imbalance are from
heat gain by the deeper
ocean (+0.10 W / m2), energy used in
net melting of ice (+0.05 W / m2), and energy taken up by warming continents (+0.02 W / m2).
The ice melting from
ocean heat flux decreases faster than the ice growth does in the weakly stratified Southern Ocean, leading to an increase in the net ice production and hence an increase in ice mass.&r
ocean heat flux decreases faster than the ice growth does in the weakly stratified Southern
Ocean, leading to an increase in the net ice production and hence an increase in ice mass.&r
Ocean, leading to an increase in the
net ice production and hence an increase in ice mass.»
Suppression of
ocean circulation overturning decreases the
ocean heat flux available to melt ice, leading to an increase in
net ice production [13].
Ocean Plaza has its own
heated pool and children's pool, spa, vibrasauna, two golf practice
nets, tennis courts and gym.
An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the
net radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper -
ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as «missing energy» in the system2.
You also need to think about the
net heat flux into the
ocean (but that is less constrained).
[Response: Not an absurd question, but in practice
net geothermal
heating (including volcanoes, mid
ocean ridges etc) is about 0.075 W / m2 — some 20 times less important than human CO2 increases.
That makes it look like 2010 was characterized by a slight departure from the average
net transfers of
heat between
ocean and surface.
In neither case, however, does the direction of
heat flow change;
heat is still (
net) flowing into the
oceans from the atmosphere, only the rate changes.
If Victor wasn't so stupid & trollish I would suggest Rob Painting's «How Increasing Carbon Dioxide
Heats The
Ocean» over on SkS and, by way of preparation, the added quote from IPCC AR5 WG1 3.4.1 «The
net air — sea
heat flux is the sum of two turbulent (latent and sensible) and two radiative (shortwave and longwave) components.»
The 2 Gton / yr
net CO2 invasion into the
ocean is driven by the rising atmospheric concentration, not by water flow or
heat fluxes or anything like that.
3) Can you confirm that the temperature and
net flux data for GISS - E2 - R, available via the CMIP5 portals and KNMI Climate Explorer are based on a model corrected to fix the
ocean heat transport problem which you identified in the Russel
ocean model in your 2014 paper?
In these experiments the climate sensitivity was 2.7 deg C for a doubling of CO2, the
net aerosol forcing from 1940 to 2000 was around -0.7 W / m2 (55 % of the total forcing, -1.27, from 1850 to 2000), and the
ocean uptake of
heat was well - matched to recent observations.
then would increase the
heat flow atmosphere - >
ocean, leading to lower (dynamic) equilibrium temperature in the atmosphere which of course occurs very fast, as the thermal mass of the atmosphere is very low compared to the
net energy throughput.
# 192 «For example a strengthening of wind over some oceanic region http://web.science.unsw.edu.au/~matthew/nclimate2106-incl-SI.pdf then would increase the
heat flow atmosphere - >
ocean, leading to lower (dynamic) equilibrium temperature in the atmosphere which of course occurs very fast, as the thermal mass of the atmosphere is very low compared to the
net energy throughput.»
That leads to a
net heat flux into the surface
ocean where it anomalously
heats the mixed layer (and circulation slowly diffuses and advects that
heat into the deeper
ocean).
The warming of the world
ocean is associated with an increase in global surface air temperature, downward longwave radiation, and therefore
net heat flux.
Looking at the surface temperature and the
ocean heat content changes together though allows us to pin down the total unrealised forcing (the
net radiation imbalance) and demonstrate that the models are consistent with both the surface and
ocean changes.
The change in radiation balance is more
heating of the
oceans at one side (specifically high in the subtropics, as expected), but more
heat released at higher altitudes, thus somewhere acting as a
net negative feedback to higher sea surface temperatures.
[Response: In a stable climate the
net heat into the
ocean would be zero.
ocean system is associated with an amplified increase in arctic surface air temperature, downward longwave radiation, and
net heat flux.
It was said above that the
ocean is warming just like the land (& air and ice sheets / glaciers), that the
heat in the
ocean dwarfs that in the land and air, that the warming is due to the
net solar imbalance (solar in, less LW out - no mention of CO2.)
If we isolate the
ocean for diagnosis, there is a rather short list of suspect forcings and feedbacks (ie changes in shortwave reaching
ocean surface possibly from strong negative aerosol feedbacks,
net positive rate change in loss of longwave from the
ocean (which would have implications for the positive WVF),
net positive
heat loss through evaporation without balancing compensation (with other implications for positive WVF).
Even with these possible issues, it buys us 50 years of economic growth and technological development and a
net reduction in the
heat content of the
ocean, that the future warming must overcome.
Re # 36: «This incoming shortwave is balanced by *
net *
ocean heat loss through back radiation (41 %)» The key word *
net * should have been used.
There's an
ocean net heat flux of 3.8 T Watt through the Fram Strait (between Iceland and Greenland) with 2.3 T Watt through the Bering Strait, both into the Arctic.
For example: 1) plants giving off
net CO2 in hot conditions (r / t aborbing)-- see: http://www.climateark.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=46488 2) plants dying out due to
heat & drought & wild fires enhanced by GW (reducing or cutting short their uptake of CO2 & releasing CO2 in the process) 3)
ocean methane clathrates melting, giving off methane 4) permafrost melting & giving off methane & CO2 5) ice & snow melting, uncovering dark surfaces that absorb more
heat 6) the warming slowing the thermohaline
ocean conveyor & its up - churning of nutrients — reducing marine plant life & that carbon sink.
The mixed layer of the
ocean is mixed (pretty much by definition) thus the
net fluxes at the surface (latent
heat, sensible
heat, long wave up and down, short wave down) warm or cool the whole layer.
I also tried to find an estimate of the
net effect of hurricane activity on upper
ocean heat content; there are some reports on individual hurricanes (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/pubs/Opal.pdf) but I couldn't find any global estimates.
Much of the radiation from the atmospheric gases, also in the infrared range, is transmitted back to the
ocean, reducing the
net long wave radiation
heat loss of the
ocean.
For example — unless there is a fundamentally different mechanism involved — the PDO and ENSO merely redistributes
heat between
oceans and atmosphere and there is no
net effect on global warming or cooling at all.
Since ARGO has been in operation, the record shows a
net heat loss of the upper
ocean (which team leader, Josh Willis, has referred to scientifically as a «speed bump»).
Quite apart from the wider publicity given to the
heat transport problem in the Russell
ocean model (which affects all of the published GISS - E2 - R results), and the famous rogue LU run where a negative forcing yields an overall positive
net flux response (which is not rogue at all and not to be excluded according to Gavin), the WMGHG results and particularly the relationship between Fi and ERF values now seem positively bizarre.
The variation of
net global sensible and latent
heat flux from the
ocean, being impacted greatly by ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO, plays the dominant role in the fluctuations in total energy output measured at the TOA over short - term time frames.
Factors that resulted in a
net cooling or a
net effect close to zero aren't really relevant, nor are climate dynamics that affect the rate of warming as a function of
ocean heat uptake, since that does not significantly affect the apportionment of warming among different factors.
By a very very big margin, the
net flow of latent and sensible
heat is from
ocean to atmosphere on a global basis.
The estimate of increase in global
ocean heat content for 1971 — 2010 quantified in Box 3.1 corresponds to an increase in mean
net heat flux from the atmosphere to the
ocean of 0.55 W m — 2.
Over that period, solar forcing was
net negative, volcanic forcing was
net negative, and oceanic fluctuations can not give the
ocean heat, merely shift it around.
The most reliable source of information for changes in the global mean
net air — sea
heat flux comes from the constraints provided by analyses of changes in
ocean heat storage.
You however are assuming (it seems to me) that because when you plot
net flux against T, you don't get a straight line, that the explanation must be something to do with how fast or slow the
ocean heat uptake is.
In contrast, closure of the global
ocean mean
net surface
heat flux budget to within 20 W m — 2 from observation based surface flux data sets has still not been reliably achieved (e.g., Trenberth et al., 2009).