As
the ohc trend is not ubiquitous ie there is no trend in either the tropics, or NH you need another mechanism (as opposed to increased subsurface observation) eg Sutton and Roemmich
The OHC trend and surface temperature trend have been robust since 1998.
Although there is very little trend in the OHC in the subpolar North Atlantic where the salinity induced vacillation cycle dominates, there is a linear
OHC trend equatorward of 45 ° N and ° S in the Atlantic basin (including the Southern Ocean)(fig.
I remember checking Wong et al. (2006) only to discover that it doesn't support your claim that
OHC trend is modulated by cloud cover.
These have some cancellation due to warming tending to keep up with GHGs, but the imbalance goes into
the OHC trend.
I didn't attempt to run a trend for 1990 - 2000, as
OHC trend for that period was hard to read.
If you think about the fact that
OHC trend is responsible for over 90 % of warming due to TOA imbalance, you may reasonably expect the surface T changes (where only 3 % of that imbalance energy goes) will not be very well correlated.
Thus
the OHC trend says that surface temperature trend has further to go.
Same energy flux at the TOA, but quite a different picture for
the OHC trends.
Not exact matches
The most exciting thing is we'll get a chance to see the relative strength of all of these over the next few years, and it will most interesting to compare the total decade of 2010 - 2019 to previous decades in terms of the
trends in Arctic Sea ice, Global Temps, and of course,
OHC.
I'm still waiting for Gates to tell me how recent
OHC warming
trends compare to those of 100 years ago.
OHC has a steep warming
trend 1969 - 1979 (incl), has a much lower
trend 1980 - 1990, and a steep
trend again 2000 - 2014.
The three decadal surface temp
trends behave as I imagine for periods when
OHC rises quickly or is flattish.
For periods when there was a clear linear
trend change in
OHC (0 - 700 & 0 - 2000), there seems to be an inverse correlation with surface temperatures.
OHC 0 — 700m
trends strongly upward while TSI falls...?
«A global ocean heat content change (
OHC)
trend of 0.55 ± 0.1 Wm ^ 2 is estimated over the time period 2005 — 2010.
The «noise level,» that is, the amplitude of internal variability, approximated here by the standard deviation (σ) of the
OHC time series after the linear
trend is removed, amounts to 0.77 × 1022 J from 2004 to 2015 (Table 1).
Thus, it is relatively straightforward to detect a long - term
trend in
OHC.
We have had these measurement long enough to know that
OHC has a positive
trend.
The linear
trend of
OHC is 0.79 ± 0.03 × 1022 J year − 1 within the same period (Figure 2).
If you can't see the problem where the measured
OHC level has suddenly become adjusted to the same
trend as Agenda based pre-2003 models, then you obviously have both eyes blinded by too much AGW kool - aide.
It is the north Atlantic which has gained lots of
OHC and has had the most elevated SST which best matches the global
trend since 1970.
As for that Fig. 4 in your 2000 Levitus paper, that is not 69 % «increase in
OHC» — that is the «percent variance accounted for by this
trend» (see Figure caption).
As he pointed out, a dominant unforced contribution to surface warming relative to forced
trends would be expected to be accompanied by a
trend of declining
OHC, which is inconsistent with the observed
trends averaged over the past half century as evidenced by mixed layer temperature measurements and sea level rise.
Favourite plays include hyper - focus on one, extremely speculative study (T&S 09); misrepresenting the potential for abrupt cooling in the C21st, dismissing the dominance of the centennial forced
trend, misrepresenting deglacial abrupt climate change; grossly over-stating the accuracy and utility of pre-CERES TOA reconstructions (especially the synthetic, non-observational ISCCP - FD reconstruction); hyper - focus on interannual
OHC variability; confusion of cause and effect with long - term
trends in
OHC (CO2 forcing denial) and general inability to see that natural variability from now on will be riding up a forced
trend which will increasingly dominate climate behaviour.
Since 1Q2004, the
OHC data show a positive
trend of +3.1 ZJ / yr for the 0 - 700 m region.
I have illustrated and document that there are multiyear aftereffects of ENSO events that cause the positive
trends in SST and TLT anomalies outside of the tropical Pacific, and I have shown that the rise in global
OHC, when broken down into logical ocean basin subsets, is dominated by natural variables.
Considering the sampling bias, new methods to assess long - term
trends in the
OHC (0 — 700 m) are proposed that suggest the presence of a continuous upper ocean warming (0.36 ± 0.08 W m - 2) since 1966.»
Linear
trends are particularly sensitive to the periods being analyzed [Lyman, 2012], and over such a short 8 year interval, changes in upper
OHC can be strongly influenced by fluctuations in the state of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)[Roemmich and Gilson, 2011] and other short - term variations in the ocean state.
What remains indeed unaccounted for is the volcanic
OHC imprint (which seems responsible for the
trend difference between GCMs and FR11 highlighted in [Troy Masters] analysis).
However, the restoration of the volcanic
OHC imbalance introduces a fairly constant (underlying)
trend which is implicitly accounted for by the FR11 method.
During the altimeter period the observed 0 - 700 meter ocean heat content (
OHC) in the subpolar gyre mirrors the increased SSH by its dominantly positive
trend.
Especially not
trends in
OHC.
However, when you take long - term
trends, such as seeing what happened in the last 60 years you see the big picture without the wiggles and both the SST and
OHC rose.
And if you ask the question how does the
OHC warming, at any depth, compare to the
trend before 1950, all you get is a little deer in the headlights look.
Fig 3A is the most important chart of the page, we don't have enough historical data to make a valid
trend, not do we have enough coverage now to adequately define
OHC.