The cited data in the paper, like earlier data, in fact demonstrate instead that no more than a small fraction of global warming during those decades could be due to internal variability, since a larger fraction would have revealed itself as a cessation or even reversal of positive
OHC uptake, which is not what was observed.
Their presentation seems to square the data with the models but begs the question of what the lower
OHC uptake (I pose a figure at Real Climate) implies for the sesnitivity.
The error bars in
OHC uptake are + - 4W / m2 or an order of magnitude larger than the modeled value.
The rate of
OHC uptake and solar are in the same order of magnitude, with an inertial lag, the deeper oceans would continue warming slowly while the upper layer flattens.
Regarding ECS («equilibrium climate sensitivity»), I think there are difficulties estimating anything truly resembling a Charney - type ECS from data involving
OHC uptake and forcing estimates, because these estimates are fraught with so many uncertainties, and because the values that are calculated, even if accurate, bear an uncertain relationship to how the climate would behave at equilibrium.
RB (# 8)-- ORAS - 4 may have overestimated
OHC uptake, but perhaps not as much as implied in the link you cited — see, e.g., OHC data.
Since
OHC uptake efficiency associated with surface warming is low compared with the rate of radiative restoring (increase in energy loss to space as specified by the climate feedback parameter), an important internal contribution must lead to a loss rather than a gain of ocean heat; thus the observation of OHC increase requires a dominant role for external forcing.
This is of particular interest in relation to «effective climate sensitivity» estimates that rely heavily on
OHC uptake data.
Not exact matches
His description should be read for details, but the essence of the evidence lies in the observation that ocean heat
uptake (
OHC) has been increasing during the post-1950 warming.
When the rate of
OHC decreases, more warming would be measured in the atmosphere, like the 1998 El Nino peak, followed by the lower 2005 El Nino peak, followed by the lower 2010 El Nino peak, which indicate a change in the rate of OH
uptake.
The relative roles can easily be computed from
OHC data and data on ocean heat
uptake efficiency and radiative restoring (reflected in the climate feedback parameter).