Sentences with phrase «ocean decadal variability»

Screen, J. A. & Francis, J. A. Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability.

Not exact matches

A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scOcean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scales.

This variability includes the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long - lived El Niño - like pattern of Pacific climate variability that works like a switch every 30 years or so between two different circulation patterns in the North Pacific Ocean.

-- The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a pattern of ocean - atmospheric climate variability across the mid-latitude Pacific Oocean - atmospheric climate variability across the mid-latitude Pacific OceanOcean.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a pattern of ocean - atmospheric climate variability across the mid-latitude Pacific Oocean - atmospheric climate variability across the mid-latitude Pacific OceanOcean.

Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences.

We quantify the interannual - to - decadal variability of the heat content (mean temperature) of the world ocean from the surface through 3000 - meter depth for the period 1948 to 1998.

Or does he perhaps mean that slow components, like the ocean, modulate the clouds, and the resulting cloud radiative forcing amplifies or damps the resulting interannual or decadal variability?

Ice - sheet responses to decadal - scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long - term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.»

Ocean and atmospheric indices — in this case the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation — can be thought of as chaotic oscillators that capture the major modes of climate variability.

Periods that are of possibly the most interest for testing sensitivities associated with uncertainties in future projections are the mid-Holocene (for tropical rainfall, sea ice), the 8.2 kyr event (for the ocean thermohaline circulation), the last two millennia (for decadal / multi-decadal variability), the last interglacial (for ice sheets / sea level) etc..

I think the interesting question raised (though not definitively answered) by this line of work is the extent to which some of the pause in warming mid-century might have been more due to decadal ocean variability rather than aerosols than is commonly thought.

(1) The «fast response» component of the climate system, consisting of the atmosphere coupled to a mixed layer upper ocean, has very little natural variability on the decadal and longer time scale.

While that is possible, the so - called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index that is used to characterize decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation sinceDecadal Oscillation (PDO) index that is used to characterize decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation sincedecadal and multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation sincedecadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation sincedecadal fluctuation since 1980).

If you can't keep up with annual - decadal changes in the TOA radiative imbalance or ocean heat content (because of failure to correctly model changes in the atmosphere and ocean due to natural variability), then your climate model lacks fidelity to the real world system it is tasked to represent.

Either there's a large decadal - scale internal variability driving it, such as a large pseudo-cyclical increase in deepwater formation, or the Arctic Ocean is near marginal stability under perturbation.

I agree that the models tend to show less decadal ocean variability than observed (given the obvious caveats on the observational side), but absolutely disagree that this implies that longer term estimates are off.

While rereading the ocean heat content changes by Levitus 2005 at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/PDF/PAPERS/grlheat05.pdf a remarkable sentence was noticed: «However, the large decrease in ocean heat content starting around 1980 suggests that internal variability of the Earth system significantly affects Earth's heat balance on decadal time - scales.»

Sevellec, F., and A. V. Fedorov, 2014b: Optimal excitation of AMOC decadal variability: links to the subpolar ocean.

«Ocean Surface Temperature Variability: Large Model - Data Differences at Decadal and Longer Periods.»

At least part of the recent US drought is down to patterns of ocean circulation that have decadal to millennial variability.

Ocean and atmospheric indices — in this case the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation — can be thought of as chaotic oscillators that capture the major modes of northern hemisphere climate variability.

The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projOcean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.

Roemmich et al (2007) suggest that mid-latitude gyres in all of the oceans are influenced by decadal variability in the Southern and Northern Annular Modes (SAM and NAM respectively) as wind driven currents in baroclinic oceans (Sverdrup, 1947).

Tropical origins of North and South Pacific decadal variability by Jeremy D. Shakun and Jeffrey Shaman makes some very interesting findings suggesting that both the northern and southern Pacific Ocean has evidence of the Pacific Decadal Variation PDV bdecadal variability by Jeremy D. Shakun and Jeffrey Shaman makes some very interesting findings suggesting that both the northern and southern Pacific Ocean has evidence of the Pacific Decadal Variation PDV bDecadal Variation PDV being...

Other well - known modes of variability include: The Antarctic oscillation; The Arctic oscillation; The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation; The Indian Ocean Dipole; The Madden — Julian oscillation; The North Atlantic oscillation; The Pacific decadal oscillation; The Pacific - North American teleconnection pattern; The Quasi-biennial oscillation.

Ocean and atmospheric indices — in this case the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation — can be thought of as chaotic oscillators that capture the major modes of NH climate variability.

Identify how anthropogenic forcing and natural atmosphere - ocean variability contribute uniquely to decadal timescale changes in the width of the tropical belt.

However, direct attribution of these changes to climate change is made difficult by long - term patterns of variability that influence productivity of different parts of the Ocean (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation).

The North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV) is composed of two identified patterns of ocean vVariability (NPDV) is composed of two identified patterns of ocean variabilityvariability.

Strong decadal climate variability is a signature of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, which is also home to the global overturning circulation.

«The authors write that North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV) «is a key component in predictability studies of both regional and global climate change,»... they emphasize that given the links between both the PDO and the NPGO with global climate, the accurate characterization and the degree of predictability of these two modes in coupled climate models is an important «open question in climate dynamics» that needs to be addressed... report that model - derived «temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies from observations in their twentieth - century climate... conclude that «for implications on future climate change, the coupled climate models show no consensus on projected future changes in frequency of either the first or second leading pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies,» and they say that «the lack of a consensus in changes in either mode also affects confidence in projected changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation.»»

In a recent paper, Sanchez - Franks and Zhang show that the underlying physical driver for the decadal variability in the Gulf Stream path and the regional biogeochemical cycling is linked to the low - frequency variability of the large - scale ocean circulation in the Atlantic, also known as Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

And a better understanding of North Atlantic Ocean dynamics is central to understanding Pacific Ocean variability and vital in predicting how global mean temperatures may evolve on decadal timescales.

The large interannual to decadal hydroclimatic variability in winter precipitation is highly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean and associated changes in large - scale atmospheric circulation patterns [16].

The model is actually based on ocean and atmospheric indices — in this case the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation — and can be thought of as chaotic oscillators that capture the major modes of climate variability.

Now forced to explain the warming hiatus, Trenberth has flipped flopped about the PDO's importance writing «One of the things emerging from several lines is that the IPCC has not paid enough attention to natural variability, on several time scales,» «especially El Niños and La Niñas, the Pacific Ocean phenomena that are not yet captured by climate models, and the longer term Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which have cycle lengths of about 60 years.»

Decadal variability is described via large - scale patterns found in the atmosphere and ocean, which oscillate at decadal timescales and are concentrated in specific regions (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Arctic and Antarctic OscillaDecadal variability is described via large - scale patterns found in the atmosphere and ocean, which oscillate at decadal timescales and are concentrated in specific regions (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Arctic and Antarctic Oscilladecadal timescales and are concentrated in specific regions (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Arctic and Antarctic OscillaDecadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations).

Regional circulation patterns have significantly changed in recent years.2 For example, changes in the Arctic Oscillation can not be explained by natural variation and it has been suggested that they are broadly consistent with the expected influence of human - induced climate change.3 The signature of global warming has also been identified in recent changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of variability in sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean.4

It suggests that the ocean's natural variability and change is leading to variability and change with enhanced magnitudes over the continents, causing much of the longer - time - scale (decadal) global - scale continental climate variability.

Other researchers are investigating variability in the Pacific Ocean, including a measure of sea surface temperatures known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

While there still is quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the effects of the PDO on Earth's climate, the U.K. Met Office says that «decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean may have played a substantial role in the recent pause in global surface temperature rise.»

Latif, M., Martin, T. & Park, W. Southern Ocean sector centennial climate variability and recent decadal trends.

... [T] his CESM - LE analysis further illustrates that variability in CO2 flux is large and sufficient to prevent detection of anthropogenic trends in ocean carbon uptake on decadal timescales.»

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale The new paper by McCarthy et al. (2015) Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea - level observations has gained some attention around the blogosphere.

Different approaches have been used to compute the mean rate of 20th century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise from the available tide gauge data: computing average rates from only very long, nearly continuous records; using more numerous but shorter records and filters to separate nonlinear trends from decadal - scale quasi-periodic variability; neural network methods; computing regional sea level for specific basins then averaging; or projecting tide gauge records onto empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) computed from modern altimetry or EOFs from ocean models.

Variations in tropical cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons are dominated by ENSO and decadal variability, which result in a redistribution of tropical storm numbers and their tracks, so that increases in one basin are often compensated by decreases over other oceans.

Present - day ocean models do have some rudimentary capability to model El Nino - like variability, but they are not yet able to reliably simulate decadal - type variability, even though 1000 - year climate runs exhibit variability over a broad range of time scales.

9.3.1 Global Mean Response 9.3.1.1 1 % / yr CO2 increase (CMIP2) experiments 9.3.1.2 Projections of future climate from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a) 9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES) 9.3.2 Patterns of Future Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conclusions

There are large changes with the El Nino - Southern Oscillation and volcanoes as well step changes and decadal variability to do with changes in cloud associated with changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation.