Sentences with phrase «office decadal climate»

Not exact matches

While there still is quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the effects of the PDO on Earth's climate, the U.K. Met Office says that «decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean may have played a substantial role in the recent pause in global surface temperature rise.»

For more forecasting work from the UK Met Office and by scientists from the Met Office and 12 other international research centres: «Real - time multi-model decadal climate predictions ``, Doug M. Smith, Climate Dynamics, December 2012 — Red emphasisclimate predictions ``, Doug M. Smith, Climate Dynamics, December 2012 — Red emphasisClimate Dynamics, December 2012 — Red emphasis added.

The decadal predictions system, Met Office decadal prediction system: DePreSys, achieves this by starting predictions from observed atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and including projected emissions of greenhouse gases and variations in natural climate forcings (volcanic and solar activity).

The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.

Providing reliable climate projections on regional and local, seasonal and decadal scales is a complex scientific challenge that the Met Office is in a unique position to meet.